Friday, March 11, 2005

Citgo and Chavez

Earlier this week a member in the Venezuelan National Assembly (NA) announced a proposal of a referendum to be held prior to any decision being made to sell Citgo. Some time ago I mentioned this same thing on various blogs and chat rooms, now I'm not suggesting that someone read what I wrote or that my idea was something so novel that someone else couldn't think of it too. Never the less it is a gratifying to know that something you thought about, and think is a good idea, someone actually brought up in the NA and is proposing.
I hope that this idea is seriously considered and made into a big deal, one because I think Citgo is vital to PDVSA and Venezuela, two because I think it is a win-win situation. It is a win-win situation because we are using the same strategy that Chavez so admires, elections and the popular vote and regardless of the outcome I think Chavez will lose one way or another, here are some scenarios:

1. CNE cheats (Citgo is sold) - (Likely) further increase the resentment for Chavez and Chavismo, in the short and long term, may spark riots, protests etc..
2. Clean elections (Citgo is sold) - (very possible) well what can I say, it is a loss for Venezuela, but at least the people decided (ok, this one might be more of a loss than a win)
3. clean elections (Citgo NOT sold) - (Unlikely) This would be a win for the people, Venezuela, and the opposition. Plus just think how pissed Chavez would be.
4. CNE cheat (Citgo NOT sold) - (Not likely to happen) this would be very strange and would create further internal divisions in Chavismo or it would be because Chavez decided it wasn't worth selling Citgo (at this time).

I seriously doubt that Chavez will allow a referendum on the sale of Citgo but at least one can hope.