Where do we go from here?

The debate on what the opposition in Venezuela should do with the upcoming National Assembly elections on Dec. 4th has been extensively debated ( here, here, and here). Thus I feel obligated to throw my two cents into the mix with the intent to highlight where the opposition stands and what might happen.

This past week the Supreme Court in Venezuela ruled in favor of the morochas "twins" thus allowing the government and opposition to run two parties on the ballot and having the votes count for one candidate. While both the opposition and government can use the "twins" it is likely that this will favor the government for two reasons: 1) They are "united" where one candidate has been chosen (by Chavez) to run per ticket, whereas the opposition lacks this sort of union. 2) The ever increasing evidence that "fake" individuals are signed up at voting centers, allowing ballot stuffing. Thus one can assume that the "fake" individuals will count for the pro-government candidate. If we assume the opposition will not run one candidate per ticket or play the "twins" than it is virtually impossible for the opposition to win. Another source of concern for the opposition is that the voter registry has not been released to the public. This should have been done one month ago, but to this day still nothing. We also have the very pro-governemnt national electoral council (CNE) violating the Constitution by refusing to allow all the ballot boxes from being opened, instead allowing only 1%.

(Note: one should not fault or criticize the government for being able to run a single candidate even if that means they are directly appointed by Chavez.)

So why is the opposition even running in the elections, and what do I think should and might happen?

Firstly, the opposition is a complete mess, they lack a positive message and have been unable or unwilling to present a future plan for the country. Let alone sell their plan if they have one to Venezuelans. This is in part why I think the Ni-Nis (neither government or opposition supporters) are the majority (~40%). While the opposition can criticize Chavez about all the corruption and the mismanagement in his govt. at least Chavez can sell to the people his socialist idea and provide, even minimal, hope that he can accomplish it. In short they prefer the "devil you know vs. the devil you don't" or to answer Gustavo Coronel analogy, the Ni-Nis likely prefer the driver they have because at least the driver sorta knows where he is going despite his recklessness. As for the opposition, we have no idea where they are going to take us or who that driver will be.

Secondly, the opposition also seems intent on preaching to the converted, the 30% hard core anti-Chavez citizens. Until they learn that you can't run a country let alone win elections by satisfying 30% of the populations needs they will be doomed. This goes for Chavez as well! In addition some members in the opposition seem intent on making political prisoners and freedom of press campaign issues. While these are serious issues this is not the main concern for the majority of the population, again this plays to only to about 30% of the hard-core opposition. Why don't they make employment, security, and health care the issues? Since this is what ~80% of the population cares about and where Chavez has pretty much failed.

So why is the opposition running in the Dec. 4th elections? My feeling is that since they control some aspects of government they feel compelled to protect those positions. They may also feel that they can pressure the CNE or Supreme court into ruling in their favor, not likely! (ie. the morochas). They also have faith in the international observers to expose any possible fraud. Again, the OAS and Carter Center, failed in this respect since they look at the voting process not all of the funny business that goes on before. Can we expect better with he EU? I would not put money on it. They also hope that citizens will force the ballot boxes to be opened. Again an unlikely scenario with only 30% hard core supporters.

Some political parties are advocating the application of article 350 (civil disobedience). As things stand this will fail even more so than the strike, why? Because the opposition doesn't have the overwhelming support (only ~30%), there isn't a clear leader to initiate it or political plan even if it succeeds. IF, the opposition were to call for the application of article 350. The best way to do so would be by campaigning very hard for the Dec 4th elections with a positive message while declaring that all ballot boxes be opened or article 350 will be called for. This is risky since one assumes that the opposition can be united and gather >50% hard core support by Dec 4th. I don't think they can muster the support needed by Dec.

What is the likelihood any of this might happen? My feeling is that Chavez will win big on Dec 4th. in part because of their strategy, including fraud, but mainly the failure of the opposition. I will presume that the opposition candidates will remove their names and call for demonstrations but I have a feeling this will ultimately fail. Either, because they lack the support from the population or because some candidates will not want to remove their names as candidates.

Despite my pessimistic attitude I strongly believe that conditions are more than right for a new opposition leader and political party to finally fill the void that all the other political parities have been unable to fill. In essence I don't see any of the traditional parties leading the country for three reasons: 1) the population doesn't trust them, 2) they have to much to loose (ie. the positions they already have)thus don't want to play a high risk game, 3) They continue to sell there ideas to the already converted therefore, will continue to only have ~30% support.

In short we will likely have to wait till the 2006 presidential elections and hope a new political party (ie. Venezuela de Primera) can propose a plan for the future and be able to sell it, and sell it well! because Chavez is one hell of a salesman. However, this "new" leader and party has to have the guts to risk it all and must be willing to play a high risk dirty game of politics.

Colombian conspirators vs. Venezuelan justice

On May 9, 2004 a group of suspected paramilitaries were apprehended in El Hatillo, (outskirts of Caracas) read full account here (you will have to scroll down to find it). Yesterday, after 11 hours of deliberation the Military tribunal sentenced 3 Venezuelan military officers and 27 colombians for "military rebellion", the other 73 Colombians were absolved and returned to Colombia. There are three things about the case that should raise some eyebrows:

1) The idea that the imprisoned Colombians were planning to kill Chavez doesn't seem to add up. The above link does a great job explaining why we should question this "plot", just remember there have been over 1 hundred plots so far.

2) The 73 freed Colombians claim that their Human rights were violated. According to them they were beaten and humiliated by the Venezuelan authorities, in addition, they never received clothing or personal artifacts that were sent to them by their family.

3) The defense has no understanding on how the judge made his ruling. In other words why did the judge choose those 27 Colombians over the other 73? Why not sentence all of them to 6 years in prison? or why not set them all free? Again a good example of the lack of transparency in the Venezuelan judicial system.

If in fact the Colombians human rights were violated (ie. beatings) this would constitute a grave violation by the Venezuelan government. It is one thing to beat, kill, imprison and torture, your own citizens as we have witnessed in Venezuela over the last 7 years. But when foreign citizens are treated this way you can expect international condemnation.

The Oil Game

So Chavez how much oil does the world really have? According to him it is both lots and little, but how can this be? Easy it depends on who is listening and which answer is most convenient to justify his actions. Case in point, his recent interest in nuclear technology. Why is Chavez interested in this technology? Well it appears that Venezuela needs alternative energy. While this may be true one has to question why nuclear energy, since this has no history of research in Venezuela. Plus we are seeking technology from Iran and Venezuela will soon be opening an embassy in North Korea, makes you wonder doesn't it. Moreover, one must not forget the abundant oil, natural gas, hydroelectric and solar energy available in Venezuela to feed its energy needs for hundreds of years.

Next we have the Chavez who says that Venezuela has the worlds largest oil deposits (which may be true) that can feed the worlds oil appetite for years to come. In other words the world should not worry, but we (Venezuela) need big oil companies to come and help us extract the oil.

Then we are told that oil is to high and we have to pump more to bring down prices. However, when they come down a little he makes statements like "the world is running out of oil". So which is it, I'm confused.

Finally we have the oil for politics game. I would say this is the one game Chavez has ben very successful at. Essentially this one is to drive and keep oil prices high and then offer sweet deals to foreign governments that are cash strapped and can not afford to say no to cheap oil. However, that sweet deal comes at a political cost since you are now politically aligned with Chavez, and cross Chavez you get your oil subsidy cut off (ie. Dominican Republic). Of course if you are a country that can afford to say no thanks to the deal, Chavez will then resort to an even more cunning game. He will offer cheap/free gas in that country for the poor (ie. Chicago). In this strategy Chavez is taking his political cause straight to the people in exchange for political support from the common people, hoping that they will defend him.

But does Chavez care about the poor in areas like Chicago, No!, why would he? he doesn't even care about the poor in Venezuela. He is simply trying to buy political support with oil. Well I would like to inform Chavez and his people that buying political support in Latin America may work, but here in the US it won't. The poor here don't know who Chavez is or where Venezuela is, nor do they care. So if Chavez is removed from the presidency in Venezuela, the poor in the US won't know because they won't care.

But in the mean time thanks for the cheap oil!

Sign this petition!!

The film "Secuesto Express" was on a short list to be submitted for nomination for an Oscar by the CNAC (Venezuelan Film Commission). Although it appears that the Venezuelan govt. put pressure on the CNAC so that they did not submit the film for consideration in the foreign-langauge Oscar category. Instead the CNAC submitted "1888". About a month ago the Vice-President stated: "[this] is a miserable film with no artistic value and a falsification of the truth", so is one to think they will permit this film to make it to the oscars? So please visit the link above and sign the petition in support of the most successful film in Venezuelan history. It may also be worthwhile to email the Academy Awards directly.

A change in topic

Every now and again I feel compelled to deviate from politics and current events to share with you all some things I find interesting, and this post is one of those instances.

A couple of weeks ago on PBS's "Nature" they had an episode titled "Deep Jungle" that looked at "Manakins". Manakins are birds found in Central and South America (including Venezuela) that have an amazing courtship dance, click here and click on the "video" link. Believe me you will love the video, plus the editors did a great job too.

Any nature lover can tell you that Venezuela is amazing, birding is probably the best in the world, beaches are great, and the ecological diversity is stunning. Sadly the Venezuelan government, past or present, has never exploited effectively this great resource for tourists. Even sader yet is that most Venezuelans have never seen the beautiful things that are in their own country. Wouldn't it be great if the Venezuelan government TV station aired programs about Nature and Science that taught its citizens about their own country. Instead they dedicate the time and money to Chavez's Tv show and politics.

Now Lets Take care of the Chavistas

Is Chavez now turning his sight on his own people? Well from reading the news lately it seems to be that way. The most recent victim is the newspaper "La Razon" "The Reason", personally I don't know much about the paper except that it is a "revolutionary paper" (ie. supports the Chavez regime). This afternoon four members of the criminal investigation unit of Venezuela (CICPC) raided the newspaper searching for the columnist Luis Felipe Colina or information about him. Apparently the Vice-President ordered the raid, since this columnist isn't a true revolutionary for writing critical remarks about the government (ie. likely corruption within the regime). L. Colina's articles appears every Sunday and his column is titled "Carrusel Politico" or "Political Carousel", but what is most interesting is it appears that L. Colina is not real, it is a pseudonym.

However, this is not what I find particularly interesting, instead it is the comments expressed by Lina Ron. For those readers unaware she is a staunch Chavez loyalist, who was a former prostitute now activist. She is highly militaristic and has formed her own urban guerrilla force/bodyguard. Despite this I do have to say I somewhat admire her for standing up for the poor and disenfranchised, while I strongly disagree with her philosophy and methods. To digress to the raid, Lina Ron came out to criticize the raid, saying it was an error and that she stood in solidarity with the newspaper, which she used to write a column for. L. Ron also stated "[some] people write very bad things and what ever the hell they want about everyone and nothing happens, but this poor woman (Alejendra Huertado the papers director) they are going to screw over? No, I can't allow that, that is how I am, I can't allow that my 'comandante' (Chavez)...."

So you see, if Lina Ron and Walter Martinez are starting to openly criticize Chavez (at least his administration) then there must be something wrong with the "Revolution". Since these people are very much liked by the Chavistas and have defended and supported Chavez through thick and thin. Are the tides turning? Are some government officials (the VP) worried that the likes of Lina Ron and W. Martinez have too much clout with the Chavista base, are a threat to them, and are trying now to get rid of them?

Note to reader: Don't forget the "attempted killing" of Lina Ron by the police in a Chavez controlled (Vargas State) area a few weeks ago.