Potential Candidates

Shortly after the Dec 4th National Assembly elections I wrote about what I felt were the crucial steps to build an opposition political front against Chavez for the presidential elections this year. Now I would like to turn my thoughts on candidates and what qualities would make the strongest candidate.

To start off with, I would like to confess that I'm not particularly aquatinted with any one candidate or their particular stance on issues, in part because I reside outside of Venezuela and also because none have really been vocal or campaigned by putting forth their particular plan for Venezuela (that is if they have one).

I will start off with mentioning some candidates that have thrown their name into the ring and others that people mention. I will also briefly mention why I think they should not run and why they may not be good candidates.

Maria Cornia Machado head of SUMATE - yes people suggest that she should run, personally I think this would be stupid (I think she knows this to). If she were to run she wouldn't be a strong candidate and would be quickly tied to Washingon D.C. plus it would totally discredit SUMATE.

Roberto Smith Ran unsuccessfully for gov. for the state of Vargas, also was minister of transportation under Perez. My family that lived in Vargas were never impressed with the guy, and I don't think he has the charisma or is cunning enough to run against Chavez. Plus he is to much of a no name amongst the population.

Julilo Borges Member of Primero Justicia, probably a smart guy but doesn't seem to have the charisma or is cunning enough to run against Chavez. Plus Primero Justica appears to be a little discredited amongst the people (slight PR problem).

The two candidates (or potential ones at least) seem to be Teodoro Petkoff and Manuel Rosales. My discussion on both will be centered on what qualities I think they will bring to the table and not on their past or details of their persona.

Petkoff
From my understanding many people don't like Petkoff because of his past as a communist and a guerilla fighter, although he did abandon those movements long ago. So why might he be a good candidate? Well he is a leftist! so it will be very difficult for Chavez to accuse him of being a puppet of Washington, he also has the understanding that there are two types of left. Coincidentally is the title of his recent book "Las Dos Izquierdas". If the candidates were Chavez vs. Petkoff it would essentially be a campaign of bad left vs. good left (you chose which is bad and good).

Now if memory serves me correctly the latest poll showed 30% of the population aligned with Chavez, 20% for the opposition, and 50% fell in the Ni-Ni. Petkoff seems to fall within that Ni-Ni group since he has been critical of the opposition as well as Chavez showing that he fully understands the feeling 50% of the population have with both Chavez and many in the opposition.

"Miguel recently posted" an article by Eduardo Mayobre suggesting this is the year of Teodoro. He also states that "His disadvantage is that he lacks a political party." Personally I find this to be a great strength for the simple reason that he can't be tied to or be seen as endorsing any one political group or ideology of the opposition. Moreover, he could easily build a coalition between the various political groups by providing opposition political parties positions if he were to be president.

Rosales
Unfortunately I know very little about this person, except that he is governor of Zulia and he was the last to call his party to pull out of the national assembly elections on Dec. 4th. On this day his decision to ask the CNE to at least postpone the elections was a smart move, I'm sure he knew that the CNE wouldn't, but it also showed a level of maturity that is lacking from the opposition.

Some strengths that he may have over Petkoff is that he doesn't have the communist/ guerrilla background and he may have a level of charisma and ability to resonate with the population that Petkoff lacks.

Whatever ends up happening, it is paramount that primaries are held, and who better to be in charge but SUMATE. Even if a leftist former communist like Petkoff wins the primary at least we will know that he is the person most favored out of all the other candidates. But if any candidate is a true leader they would lead by calling for primaries, this simple call would receive a fair amount of respect from my part but also address what so many of us in the opposition have been asking for.

I would like to conclude by saying that regardless of who wins any potential primary they will have my full support and vote, even if they may not be my favorite. Plus how much worse can anyone of these candidates be from Chavez?