A tale of two towns and countries!

So what more is there to say about the declarations from Juan Barreto about expropriating golf courses in Caracas! Not only is this a blatant attempt to provoke the opposition during an election year but idea of this solving the housing deficit is ludicrous. The housing deficit is due to the government working against the private sector to construct low income housing, but also in the governments incompetence in building homes for the poor, in addition to their inability to create a working class (middle class) that can eventually afford to build their own homes.

A few weeks ago my family and I took a vacation to the booming tourist town Puerto Peñaso on the Sea of Cortez in Mexico. This was the first time I had actually visited mexico instead of a boarder town. The first thing I would like to say is that Mexicans are very nice people and very chatty and they do know how to treat a tourist something that Venezuelans lack. One of the most interesting things is all the locals would ask us where we were from based on our accents. Upon telling them that we were from Venezuela they immediately said "oh Chavez". Curiously most of the comments were "he likes to cause trouble", curious statements coming from people who Chavez is trying to rally behind him.

Why do I bring up Barreto earlier in my post. Well seems that one can see what effects expropriating property or at least threatening to do so has on a local or countries economy by comparing to town in Mexico Puerto Peñasco and San Carlos. Apparently San Carlos, as we were told by the locals, was becoming quite the tourist destination, however the mayor began threatening expropriation of properties (so we were told). Consequently, foreign investment dropped and moved to a new location, in this case Puerto Peñasco. In 4 years they have built well over 10 apartment and condo. buildings with no stopping in sight. They are expanding the highway to and from San Diego to cut the travel time from 5 to 4 hours. They have begun flights to and from Pheniox Arizona and soon will be expanding the number of flights and add routs to San Diego. Again what is interesting is that most of this investment is coming from Mexican investors but many of the buyers are Americans.

While this was an interesting example showing how a town suffered from the threat of expropriation of private property and another benefiting, one can only imagine when a country does this - oh wait we have Venezuela.

A desperate Chavez campaign

The desperation of the Chavez government is now claiming that the Manuel Rosales campaign has violated campaign rules by inserting subliminal messages into his TV commercials. Personally, I sounds like the Chavez camp realize that things are going to be a lot more difficult for them than they thought. So let me summarize some events that suggests their desperation: Chavez for one has been out of the country not campaigning for reelection apparently his UN seat is more important. This of course posses a big problem since Chaveismo depends on the charismatic character of Chavez, and with him out of the country how will this fair for his campaign. In addition, Chavez has lower the numbers by which he thinks will win with from 10 million to 6. Other evidence showing their concern is the intolerant and confrontational behavior that Barreto exhibited last week, and now we have the subliminal message accusation against Rosales.

For these interested I highly recommend an interview of the pollster Alfred Keller in El Universal. In short he says Rosales started his campaign with 35% of the population intending to vote for him. Keller also indicates that while Chavez may have 55% popularity but 1/2 of those don't intend to vote for him. Keller also states that the old political strategy of radicalization (ie. Barretos performance last week) won't work for them anymore, thus his behavior was a sign of panic. He concludes by saying that if elections were held Chavez would get 27% vs. Rosales 29%. Interesting indeed!

Manuel Rosales Roberto Smith and other quick news.

For those interested this is the only web site that I have come across in regards to the presidential campaign of Manual Rosales. I assume they will be making a more official web site to promote his candidacy.

In other news Roberto Smith decided to pull out of the presidential campaign to rally around Manuel Rosales as the single candidate to confront Chavez. The only other candidate that has yet to pull out is El Conde de Guacharo, he said he would make his decision during the beginning of November (hopefully it will be sooner).

What I find refreshing and remarkable is how the opposition has rallied behind Rosales with all the other candidates and campaign's have been incorporated into the Rosales camp to help Rosales (no one is excluded). In addition, the Rosales camp appear to be playing by their own time table and has avoided the radical and confrontational behavior of the government.

Oh ya, Chavez is now where in Venezuela to be seen and he now says he hopes to get 6 million votes, what happened to the 10 million? I guess 4 million have learned to brush their teeth and now are going to vote for Rosales. BTW, I think Barreto should pick up some of this toothpaste he has quite the potty mouth.

So far so good!

The DEA and the National Guard in Venezuela

Excerpt from investigations by Sam Logan

"The DEA counterpart in Venezuela is the National Guard. Last year high-level officers within this group accused some DEA agents of spying. When the news hit the presidential office, Venezuelan president, Hugo Chavez, made the most of it and halted all work with the DEA. This occurred in August, 2005. Soon after the Venezuelan government quietly let the accusations slide, probably because they were unfounded. But relations have been strained. Since August, drug trafficking through Venezuela has increased significantly. The Public Information Officer with the US Embassy in Caracas has informed me that the DEA and the National Guard have resumed working together, and a recent article in the Miami Herald suggests that DEA agents will be present when seizures are made.
Many of us are keeping an eye on members of the National Guard who operate in the Venezuelan state of Zulia, on the border with Colombia. I have received hard copies of information collected by former (meaning pre-Chavez) National Guard members that corroborates the widespread claim that a drug trafficking organization, called the Sun Cartel, exists and is working to help the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) traffic cocaine through Venezuela into Mexico, where it is received by either the Sinaloa or Gulf organizations"

What I find amusing is to see how Chavez really has no idea what is going on in Venezuela he is constantly being used as el tonto util. In this case some National Guards are missing out on their drug profit so they claim the DEA are spies. We also see how information is purposely or not fed to Chavez such as that Chavez was going to receive an award by Oxford University, Oliver Stone was going to make a film" about the "coup"" of April 11th".

No taxation without representation

So I have been neglecting my blogging duties because classes start this week and this semester I am responsible for teaching young impressionable minds (undergraduates). Consequently I want to make a few comments about our graduate student union.

Due to my teaching activities I am forced to join the Graduate Student Union. Now don't get me wrong I do think unions do serve a purpose and I do support the union in fighting for better healthcare however other things I have greater difficulty in supporting such as daycare service. So why did I title this post as I did? Am I and many other grad students being unfairly represented by the union? Well I would argue that if one has to pay union fees but is not allowed to vote unless they register and pay another "voting" fee is very unfair. So I have to pay a fee but am not allowed a voice, isn't this what one of the things the American Revolution was about?

unions, socialism, ya right your just giving money to people that claim to be fighting on your behalf when in reality they just need a reason to have a job.

Chavez: announces Batalla Miranda - but what was it?

Today Chavez officially registered in the CNE as a candidate for re-election for President. Like all his campaigns they have been given a Venezuelan battle name, this election is no different this time it is called the Batalla Miranda.

To overlook this subtle yet important campaign battle call would be unwise since Chavez has the uncanny ability to predict the future or is it rig it.

The following is the only thing I have been able to find on the battle[s] of Miranda with a little info on Miranda too.

Fransciso de Miranda
He was born in Caracas, Venezuela son of a wealth merchant he served in the Spanish army and fought with Spanish and American fighter during the American Revolution; in addition, he was a general during the French Revolution. After 35 years without returning to Venezuela he felt it was time for Venezuela and the Americas to obtain its independence Europe with the help of the United States.

Batalla Miranda
In 1806 with a small flotilla of 3 ships left New York with mostly foreign fighters and weapons to incite an insurrection against European colonization. At the time there was a significant amount of discontent in Venezuela and talk of independence. Thus he hoped that upon arriving in Venezuela he could tap into that discontent and spark the independence movement against Spain with the hope it could spread through the rest of Latin America. However, upon landing in Port Ocumare in the state of Aragua he did not receive a warm welcome or support from the population. Instead he had small encounters with Spanish military forces and soon sought refuge in the Antillas. Two months later he attempted another insurrection in Coro in the state of Falcon but upon disembarking the population was even more unwelcoming and seemed almost hostile with some people leaving town upon his arrival. Thus Miranda failed twice to incite an insurrection with the ultimate goal of Venezuelan independence from Spain. As a consequence Venezuelans returns to tranquility and complacency despite its discontent with Spain.

The significance with the Dec 3rd elections
We can make many parallels between Miranda and the opposition, hence the Chavez campaign theme of the battle of Miranda, here are some of the obvious ones.

Like F. Miranda the opposition has recognized a high level of discontent among Venezuelan with the governing body (Spain and Chavez respectively). Similarly both have tired/attempt to remove the governing bodies twice, in the case of Miranda his landing in Ocumare and Coro, and the opposition with the Aug. 2004 referendum and the elections slated for Dec 3rd 2006. The referendum outcome did not cause any massive demonstrations or incite widespread violence like Mirandas failed attempts at Independence. So the question becomes will Chavez again accurately predict the outcome of Dec 3/4? will the victory of an imperialistic power, in this case Chavez, over the failed attempts at unseating it fail due to the apathy of the population, and will Venezuelans again fall into complacency with Chavez as they did with Spain despite their discontent?

More background on Francisco de Miranda
Other historical background was taken from "Cuéantame a Venezuela" authored by Arturo Uslar Pietri

quick post

Just a quick post while I play catch up on the news and try to figure out what I'm supposed to do with my toothpaste and shaving cream for my plane trip home. As rumored Rosales has become the single candidate and as far as this blogger is concerned will support this candidate for president (sorry Conde). While I try to digest a weeks worth of news I will leave further comments for a future post.

In the mean time those interested should read this interesting article about the oil industry in Venezuela and how Chavez has systematically destroyed it in the name of politics click here.

Elections on Dec 3rd?

The other day a fellow blogger asked me for my opinion on the following question: Can the Dec. 3rd elections in Venezuela be held in a free and transparent manner and what are my thoughts on the current list of candidates. Before I give my opinion, I would what to state that predicting what can and will happen is near impossible, for instance just two weeks ago Benjamzín Rausseo (El Conde) announced that he was in the ring as a candidate, taking the political scene by storm. Thus, in politics things move fast, a simple statement, announcement, or scandal can change public opinion overnight. This being said I will now quickly summarize where we are at and where things might go.

Are fair and transparent elections possible?
The presidential referendum in Aug of 2002 really became the catalyst of how the government was going to react to any threat on it power. It almost was successful in preventing the referendum in Aug 2002, it created the now famous Maisanta list used to identify enemies of the state, and creating fake polling agencies to legitimize and alter public opinion.

One of the most telling aspects is how the electoral database has been inflated, in the beginning of 2002 there were about 12 million people registered to vote by Aug 2002 that number increased to about 14 million. Currently it stands around 16 million with government officials stating they hope to have it around 16.5 by Dec. 3rd. In 4 years it has increased by 4 million voters! A better question is, why is the government aiming to have 16.5 why this number where are these people coming from? Nigeria perhaps? Colombia? are they real people or are they 8 million individuals living in the same house? We don't know because the government won't allow independent auditing of the voter registry.

So on Dec 3rd do we go out and vote? or do we stay home and watch our favorite episode of Alo Presidente? Again lets look at history. During the referendum we went out en mass and voted waiting up to 10 hours to cast a vote, but in the end the opposition lost despite exit polls showing the opposition won (sorry North American Opinion Research doesn't count) why? because the opposition never had a plan B they never had the guts to ask the citizens to force a manual count of the votes instead they relied on closed door electronic tabulation. The other strategy is to abstain from the elections as was done on Dec 3rd of 2005 during the National Assembly elections. This strategy worked as a moral victory for the opposition when the abstention rate was about 80% despite public threats against public employees to go out and vote, it has also been said that for the 20% that voted about 20% were null votes. However, in the end it was Chavez who was victorious once again. By the way as far as this blogger knows the CNE has still not released the official results from the National Assembly elections, so much for smartmatic and electronic voting.

2006
After the moral victory of the opposition there was great hope they finally got their act together and had a clear strategy to confront Chavismo as a united group. It was also hoped that the next step would be to select a single candidate for the Dec 3rd presidential elections either by consensus or by primaries. Again the dysfunctional opposition showed its ugly head, with one group claiming moral victory and calling for voter abstention until a non-Chavez controlled CNE is in place, thankfully this group seems to be increasingly isolated, but more on this later. In addition, we started to see presidential candidates coming out of the wood work claiming they can defeat Chavez. Ultimatly three potentially strong candidates emerged Teodoro, Borges, and Rosales to their credit they have a working dialogue and have agreed to withdraw and support which ever candidate has the most support.

Sumate?
To select a single candidate Sumate had agreed to organize primaries, which I have been largely supportive of, however the opposition candidates kept delaying and could never agree if they wanted to participate in one or not. The main reasons were cost, secrecy of voting since people feared the government could get the info and a second Maisanta list could be created, and a fear that if their was low participation it would be a sign of weakness for the opposition. As far as this blogger is aware Teodoro stated he would not participate but he would support a single candidate, meanwhile Borges and Rosales said they would participate in the Aug 13th primaries. However, rumors suggest no primary will take place since Teodoro is pulling out and Borges and Rosales have come to some sort of agreement with Rosales potentially being the single candidate.

The hidden wild card - El Conde
Well El Conde really shook things up when he announced his candidacy. The blogsphere was abuz about his announcement, something no other candidate has been able to generate, I have been told that many on the street are equally excited. Based on the excitement I have seen, his persona, his speeches, and his background I believe El Conde may be the best candidate to confront Chavez. This is not to say I think he is the best prepared candidate for the job, but he said one thing that really stood out "I don't know everything but my job is to find experts in every field and rely on them for information". While I am not ready to throw my full support to El Conde I think he has a very good chance at being the single opposition candidate and a very good chance at beating Chavez. Either way a Chavez vs. Conde campaign will be show not to be missed!

The opposition slug-fest
In some sense Chavez has had it very easy in demoralizing and eliminating the opposition, mostly because the opposition continues to fight with itself and self-destruct. No one says this more bluntly than the Vice-President, Jose Vicente Rangel. Simply reading the hard-core radical comments in Noticiero Digital one quickly sees the character attack people engage in first it was Borges, then Toedoro, now the latest victim is El Conde. El Conde has since been accused of being tied to Cisneros, Chavez, and all sorts of other rumors that are baseless. Chavistas are equally suspicious of El Conde accusing him of being a plot to divide the Chavez camp etc. Thus it is my humble opinion that when someone is attacked from both extremes it is because they are a true moderate and will represent and garner the most support from the population.

To vote or not vote: that is the question
Some groups in the opposition have called for voter abstention, I find this call irresponsible and selfish. What do we gain by this, a moral victory? This would be giving Chavez the presidency again but without a fight, so why have these individuals fought at all during the past 5-6 years? Even if abstention were 90% and Chavez seen as illegitimate nothing will happen will a foreign country invade? impose sanctions? NO! worse dictators and more threats have presented themselves and the international community simply sits idly by and with high oil prices and the spigot open, Chavez wouldn't even receive a verbal criticism.

The only viable option is to have a single candidate that has the ability to mobilize the population and force the government to cede on some issues such as the elimination of finger print machines and allowing an independent audit of the national electoral database. Ultimately on the day of the election the candidate has to call on the voters to stay at the voting booth and demand that all boxes be opened and all votes hand counted. Of course all of this depends on the will of the people and the candidates ability to mobilize the voters and risk a confrontation with the government. This in my opinion is the most viable solution but as I have said before a manual vote count will not be peaceful since the government will not allow it. The only out come can be violence in the hope of removing Chavez by force or repression of the population with Venezuela finally making the total transition to an authoritarian state.

Recommended reading:

analysis of finger print machine
English translation

I am currently on vacation and will be at the beach for a much needed vacation for the next 7 days when I get back I will hopefully comment a little on which candidate I think has the best chance, although right now it appears that it will be between Rosales and El Conde.


addendum

Juan José Abreu Araujo introduce a lawsuit to the Supreme Court against Sumate preventing them from conducting primaries. The reason: "Sumate does not recognize the National Electoral Council CNE as the sole entity in conducting elections". WOW! this is like the Republican party preventing the Democratic party from conducting their primaries because the Republican party isn't the one organizing them. Any questions?