topics for future posts

I apologize for my absence but I have been a little lazy (and uninspired) and preoccupied with preparing for my preliminary exams. This weekend I attended and participated in a symposium on the future of biology. To say the least it is impressive, we are seeing the generation of massive amounts of genetic data and the integration of chemistry, physics, biology, computer science, and mathematics all working together to solve biological problems.

Back in 2000-2001 the Human Genome sequence made the headlines. Scientists of course did not stopped there, we now have 7 complete vertebrates genomes including a frog, mouse, chicken, and we have worms, fungi, bacteria, viruses, flies etc... However, it is not the genetic sequence that is impressive but our understanding of if, and to see the humans have essentially the same number of genes (~30,000) as a fruit fly and a worm, yet we are so different in so many ways. We are now able to study how bacterial communities change overtime, we can see which genes are turned on and off during changes in the environment, social interactions, between sexes, during learning and memory, development, etc... In short we have the tools to study and understand biological processes and can manipulate them.

In light of this I will be writing a series of posts about science in relation to Venezuela and the United States, in particular I want to discuss biofules and how this may or may not affect Venezuela and look at science research in general in venezuela. Hopefully it will be interesting and informative. BTW, I will take requests as to topics or things to cover.

How the Venezuelan government treats the poor?

We did not clean up [remove the street vendors] from Sabana Grande Boulevard because it was not the politically right thing to do at the time.

But now after Chavez won the elections with the support of these voters he is turning his sites on them and removing their place of business. Why did they not remove the street vendors sooner. Well when asked why remove them now Freddy Bernal (mayor of the municipality Libertador Caracas) said:

"since you all know we spent seven years trying to consolidate institutional democracy, and it is not a secret there were years of craziness between the government and the opposition it wasn't the time to make this political decision."

translation
Thanks for you votes and support in keeping us in power, but now that we are here for life we don't need your support anymore.

While it is understandable and welcoming to see something being done to clean up the streets (the street vendors have generated tons of trash) it is unfortunate that the they were used as a political tool and didn't seem to realize it.

Financial outlook for Venezuela in 2007

Below is the Economist outlook for 2007

The Economy
"In the near term, a large financing cushion and access to off-budget sources of revenue will prevent a major rapid deterioration in the public debt (which is currently only 25% of GDP), despite the fiscal deficit. But as Treasury balances are drawn down, and assuming that as oil prices fall the government will be less able to access international reserves and PDVSA income for spending purposes, public indebtedness will increase steadily over the forecast period."

"Assuming that falling oil prices begin to bring deficiencies in Venezuela’s policy environment to the fore, Venezuela could be vulnerable to sentiment in global financial markets, but the sovereign's external debt burden is low and exchange controls limit the possibility of capital flight. We expect the recent sharp fall in oil prices to be partly reversed, and continue to forecast Dated Brent at over US$55/barrel in both 2007 and 2008."

"In the past, oil-fuelled booms have been followed by spectacular crashes in the wake of oil price falls. However, with world oil prices expected to remain high (by historical comparison) for a prolonged period, the economic cycle is likely to prove to be more drawn out in this case."

"In the face of upward pressures emanating from booming domestic demand and a swelling money supply, the authorities are likely to attempt to restrain inflation by implementing tougher price controls and increasing the supply of imports sold through the subsidised Mercal distribution chain. However, in the absence of a major fiscal adjustment, pressures will continue to build."

"...inflation will remain at high double-digit levels, unless there is a greater than projected withdrawal of excess liquidity. Our forecasts assume that there will be some relief towards the end of the forecast period as domestic demand growth slows."
"...We currently forecast a devaluation at the beginning of 2008, to Bs2,700:US$1."



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Al Qaeda threatens Venezuela and the United States

I apologize in advance but I have rather busy with work but I thought I would share this piece of news.

Apparently Al Qaeda has threatened oil installations naming Venezuela as a potential target. Now while their call is to hurt the United States it will obviously hurt Venezuela more than the US. Therefore, this constitutes a threat not only to the US but to Venezuela. Will this create a new source of common ground in which Venezuela and the US can work together?

DUBAI (Reuters) -- A Saudi wing of al Qaeda called for attacks on U.S. oil sources across the world, saying targets should not be limited to the Middle East and listing Canada, Venezuela and Mexico as U.S. oil suppliers.
I think this is particularly concerning due to the dismantling of an Venezuelan state institutions making such attacks much easier. Remember we still don't know who shot demonstrators on April 11, 2002, who bombed the Spanish embassy and the colombian consulate, or who killed Daniel Anderson. So what makes us think Venezuela can safe guard its oil? How will Chavez respond this this threat?

rojo, rojito

After the announcement that the Venezuelan government paid $740 million for the Caracas electric company, manufactures of red light bulbs and red telephones are expecting a surge of exports to Venezuela in the coming months. However, since the nationalization was announced street vendors in Venezuela began selling candles. When asked how business has been Jose Gonzalez replied: "since the beginning of Jan my sales have increased by 500%, especially in the east of Caracas with people buying a few candles as they drive home from the car dealership". When asked what he was going to do with the profits he replied: "I'm investing it in pigeons since I see opportunities in the telecommunications industry."

In other news, after eight years as the leader of the revolution Chavez has realized he should lead by example and has created the latest social mission mission gordo. When asked by reporters what the missions goal is Chavez stated "the devil to the north teaches us skinny is beautiful while they engorge themselves, so we will fight against the imperialists and eat more than them". Unfortunately, this has created the unforeseen consequence of food shortages around the country.

Latin America and US policy

American policy towards Latin America has had a turbulent past to say the least. It has usually involved the United States invoking the Monroe Doctrine to prevent European colonization, then during the cold war it was applied to prevent the spread of soviet communism and Russian influence in the Americas. Now that European colonization isn't threat, the cold war being over, and most Latin American countries coming to age what lies ahead for US policy in Latin America?

The three directions
For better or for worse Latin America is coming of age, experimenting politically and economically. Rather than classify Latin American countries based on whether they are to the left or right of the political spectrum, we should view them as open, closed, or drifting.

Some countries have been embracing the "open" model by seeking free trade, stimulating private and seeking foreign investment, creating a more open, a more accountable government, strengthening of government institutions, etc. Chile is the most notable country that is opening but Colombia, Peru, Brazil, Uruguay, Mexico, Costa Rica are all moving in that direction.

On the side of spectrum we have closed countries like Venezuela that show the mirror image of open countries that are open. Creating a protectionist state, with little to no foreign or private investment, and weak state institutions. The other countries that fall under this label would be Bolivia and Cuba. These countries can afford to some degree being closed simple due to their natural resources or by the trade embargo/choice in the case of Cuba.

The final category are the drifting states those that are directionless not choosing to open up (for fear of change or stimulating unrest), but they aren't closing because they understand financially they can't so they simply drift, not reforming and hoping that things will get better by themselves. Argentina is the country that seems to fulfill this role quite well. Nicaragua and Ecuador I think will fall under this category simply because they don't have the financial resources to be closed along with a political opposition.

US engagement in Latin America
The US role has changed from past Monroe Doctrine application since outside threats from Europe or Russia aren't present. With this change come a change in policy unfortunately Bushes popularity among Latin Americans is about as poplar as Chavez's (which isn't high) so any public statements about Latin American affairs will be viewed with skepticism, and irony. This is compounded by Chavez pouncing on every opportunity available to discredit and criticize Bush, hence, Bushes policy on Latin America and an engagement is a lost cause. So what is left? The only viable policy would be to call on congress to send regular bi-partisan congressional delegates to to tour the open countries of the region (Chile, Brazil, Peru, Colombia). Most, importantly it would be wise to sign trade deals with these countries to help them stimulate trade and industries, provide aid and truly engage with them politically and economically. Secondly, the US administration has to withhold has much as possible any public confrontation or comments about the closed countries (i.e. Venezuela). In conclusion, Latin America is experimenting economically and politically and as they grow and mature, eventually forming a trading block, one predominant economic model will take hold. This model will more than likely be the open economic model so the role of the US should be to facilitate this with a carrot not a stick.

Side note
I always found it ironic that Chavez sought to battle politically with Washington to create this "multi-polar" world. Sadly the battle of political ideology died with the collapse of the Berlin Wall, instead the current battle is economic, in other words it is a "race to the top".

I'm using "battle" in a figurative sense

I would like to leave the readers with this quote from Costa Rican President and Nobel Peace Prize winner Oscar Arias:

“The fundamental difference in Latin America is between governments that believe in the need to insert their small economies into the world and those that do not; the latter group can afford to be protectionist and do not believe you need to look for markets, preferring alliances of another sort, such as the alliances between Venezuela and Cuba or Nicaragua and Cuba, that are certainly not commercial in nature,”