Saying goodbye to 2007 and hello to 2008

The year 2007 brought a lot of unexpected outcomes in Venezuela. It started with Chavez riding high after his, rather impressive, presidential victory decided to re-nationalize the telephone company CANTV and nationalize electricidad de Caracas. With time the quality of the services provided by both will decline bringing back the era waiting years for a telephone connection that plagued CANTV pre-privatization and rolling blackouts that still occurs in Venezuela.

Soon after returning these national assets to the "people" Chavez decided to turn his sights on what had been a torn in side for years, the television station RCTV. While not backing down on its closure and despite public opinion polls saying they were against it he followed through with his decision. Unfortunately, this move sparked what would become the biggest newsmaker of the year, the student movement.

For years almost every sector of society took up the political cause either for or against Chavez, except, for the most part, the university students. Most people, including myself, wondered why had this typically politically active group not organized itself and become more active. Strangely it was the closure of RCTV that seems to have acted as the solidifying force behind its organization and activism.

Clearly the student movement did not happen overnight since its organization and activism had been taking place over the past few years (i.e. with Nixon Moreno). Was their vocal activism against the closure of RCTV simply a convenience of two events taking place at the same time along a political void left by the opposition? It would certainly be interesting to read how the student movement developed and how they have become a rather strong protagonist it was has become the Venezuelan drama.

In the early fall is when things began to pick up once again with the constitutional reforms. During this time Chavez gave Mercosur an ultimatum in its admission into the group, of course this was more for show since Venezuela still has not been granted full membership yet. Around the same time Chavez announced that Venezuela was going to change time zone by 1/2 an hour so children wouldn't have to get up for school in the dark. Of course a much simpler solution would have been to change the school hour not the time zone.

One of the biggest stories of the year, which is still playing out, is the $800,000 that was caught being smuggled into Argentina by Antonini. According to FBI documents the money appears to have had been destined for the Kirchner political campaign. It also seems to have involved people people in the Venezuelan government including who have given lucrative contracts to Antonini, Duran, and Kauffmann. Then of course we can not forget the famous quote "Por que no te callas?" by the King of Spain.

The biggest story of the year was clearly the defeat of the constitutional reform proposed by Chavez on Dec 2nd. Clearly this marked a turning point for both those who oppose Chavez and Chavez himself. It demonstrated that Chavez can lose an election and that those who have voted for Chavez in the past are not all die-hard Chavistas. Of course the defeat for Chavez would not have been possible for without the student movement and former minister of defense, Baudel, and the political party Podemos.



This is my own list of things I think might mark major political events in 2008.

interesting and promising events:

Baudel continues to campaign for holding a "asamblea constituyente" hold signature drives and revoke members for the national assembly and hold new elections in order to increase its plurality and to stop Chavez from passing laws unopposed. This strategy is a little risky since election are to be held for mayors and council men throughout Venezuela.

Of course the students. What role will they play will they continue to play a rather apolitical role? Will the leaders or the movement that have graduated allow the baton to be passed onto a new crop of student leaders? Then for those that have graduated will they form their own political party or will they join and the ranks for established parties bringing new blood and ideas that they so desperately need.

potential to flounder or make gains

Really the only person I can think for this is Chavez. 2007 wasn't terribly kind to him I would even say he lost more than he gained and for the first time ever. Internationally he has made gains and had losses, numerically I would say he is currently at a net of 0 change, mostly because he accepted the defeat on Dec 2nd and is now seen as having some clout in freeing some FARC hostages.

2008 will be more interesting since the economy will probably start eroding his popularity at home while Chavez seems more focused on international events. Chavez has also managed to remove most of the intellectual people in his administration. Combining this with the student movement, Baduel, and Podemos Chavez may find his revolution even less popular.

Little hope

Like every year the political opposition makes the list, although I will say they have more going for them than before. Mendoza clearly played an important role during the constitutional reform vote but is probably unlikely to play a major role on the front lines. Primero Justicia appears to have the most going for it while Un Neuvo Tiempo and Rosales are unlikely to make any major gains. It will probably take many years and hard work for these political parties to make long term significant gains, ultimately I think it will come down to their approach to leadership will it be the current style of top down or a more democratic one of bottom up, which seems to lack in most of Latin America.

Finally the Bolivar Fuerte. Yep, the new currency! Somehow the new currency is going to solve the financial problems in Venezuela. Hell I'm still waiting on what 21st century socialism is. Granted removing 3 zeros isn't a bad idea but it hardly solves the economic problems of Venezuela, which the government finally seems willing to admit. Go figure, they have now done a 360 and decided to remove price controls on many products and let the market decide the price, shhh... just don't call it capitalism.

I hope everyone has a wonderful new year, this blogger is going to enjoy it with friends and some Cava.

Merry Christmas

I hope everyone had a wonderful Christmas, as for me I spent it with family and friends Venezuelan style with gaitas, hallacas, pan de jamon, pernil, and of course Venezuelan rum, the only thing missing was being in Venezuela.

The suit case that just won't get lost

Readers may remember "Maletagate" the now infamous Alejandro Antonini who was caught entering Argentina with $800,000 in undeclared cash in his suitcase.

At the time various individuals were named who had close association with the Chavez government and have also recently obtained significant financial wealth. It was also claimed the money was destined to the campaign of Cristina Kirchner, who now is Argentina's president.

Today we were treated to a new twist, apparently the FBI have been busy doing an investigation into the money since some of the individuals live in Miami and are now being accused of not registering as foreign agents. Probably the biggest source of concern for the Chavez government is this statement from the Financial Times:

According to an affidavit signed by an FBI agent, the defendants told Mr Antonini, who has not been charged, that high-ranking Venezuelan government officials, including the office of the vice-president, members of the intelligence services, and a high-ranking official from the justice ministry of Venezuela, were aware of the matter.

Not only that but the Justice Department in their Criminal Complaint state that the Venezuela intelligence services played a role in the matter and that the money was indeed destined to help the campaign of Kirchner. The DoJ is asking the five individuals be denied bail since they constitute a flight risk.

Of course the Foreign Minister of Venezuela has moved swiftly to accuse the US. government of investigating the matter in order to damage its relations other South American countries. At least its good to see that the Chavez government isn't denying their involvement in the matter, just that the US has picked a "convenient" time to announce the arrests.

Like most of the businessmen that have been popping up in the Venezuelan news they tend to have "companies" registered in Miami. One the individuals named by the Justice Deparment is a Rodolfo Wanseele who has registered a company called Wanpac, INC. It also looks like he has a nice Condo. in Miami at

210 Fontaine Bleau Blvd
#412
Miami FL, 33172

also registered with him are a Maricela O. Miliani and Maricela Olivar - same person but for some reason they dropped the Miliani

More links can be had by visiting VenezuelaToday on the link section on the right.

Chavez's post reform vote frustration

I think most people, me included, we counting on and hoping for a rather peaceful low stress holiday this year. After all Chavez did concede defeat Sunday night, albeit not as humbly or graceful as one would hope. But this is Chavez we are talking about. So of course Chavez ended sabotaging himself, after all the good press he had received, by calling the opposition win shit among other choice words.

Of course Chavez doesn't take losing well as we are starting to see, but rather than reflect on why he lost he has turned to blaming others for his loss and decided that intimidation of opposition figures, in true totalitarian style, is the best why to deal with his frustration.

Yesterday he referred to those that didn't vote for the reform "lazy and irresponsible", then saying they lacked a conscience, dignity, courage, and the love for the homeland.

"El presidente venezolano, Hugo Chávez, reprendió hoy públicamente a sus seguidores por haber sido "flojos e irresponsables" y no haber ido a votar a favor de su propuesta de reforma constitucional, que fue rechazada en referendo el pasado domingo.



"Para mí no valen excusas (...) una buena parte (de los simpatizantes oficialistas) no fue a votar, millones que no fueron a votar (...) no tienen excusa. ¡Falta de conciencia, falta de resolución por la patria, falta de coraje, falta de dignidad", opinó Chávez en un acto oficial en Caracas.

What's the best way for Chavez to antagonize the opposition? Intimidation of course, and that is what ex-governor of Miranda received when the state called for his detention for ordering the "taking over" of the state television station on April 11, 2002.

Then today we have the vice-president, former president of the national electoral board, stating that the government is going to open an investigation into Jose Silva Peñado one of the European Union election observers present on Sunday. He his being accused strategizing with the opposition with the intent of destabilizing Venezuela.

Finally what better way to rally the Chavista troops than to beat up, literally and figuratively, on Globovision. Below is a video recorded by a Globovision cameraman who was going to cover a story but was beat up by the Metropolitan police instead.





In other news
As I predicted might happen with a Chavez loss, some Chavistas are jumping ship (i.e.vice-minister Villegas), others are in danger of losing their job.

So much for a quiet and peaceful holiday in Venezuela.

BTW, I highly recommend these two new articles published in the Economist. Defiantly a must read!

The wind goes out of the revolution

The beginning of the end for Hugo Chavez

Post election thoughts

It's official now the No vote won against Chavez's plan to rewrite 69 articles in the constitution. While Chavez is still in the presidency this is a small but significant win for the opposition. Not only does it prove the Chavez can be defeated but it shows that if the opposition is organized enough the CNE can be trusted and a persons vote does count, while the claims for fraud are no longer a reason to abstain from future elections.

Of course some things did play in favor of the No vote such as Chavez's increasing totalitarian rule (i.e. closing RCTV), his fight with the political party Podemos, and the worsening situation of the economy. One of the biggest factors in the defeat of the SI vote was the student movement. For once it showed that a grass roots movement that leaves the confines of the upper and middle class areas of Venezuela is essential to win over voters.

If I can be so bold to make a prediction, I am willing to say that the revolution is crumbling. The final nail in the Chavez coffin will be the economy so the opposition needs to be ready to take advantage of this in the near future.

voting is closed

Update 1:20 pm Caracas time

Essentially Chavez concedes defeat and says Venezuela's democracy is maturing. It also sounds like Chavez didn't want to concede until he was sure the voting tendency was irreversible. Of course he says that once he realized it was irriversible he wanted to the best thing for the country by announcing his defeat. Isn't he nice for saving our country from violence, blah!

good day indeed, going to bed since I don't want to stay up the next 3 hours listening to Chavez babble

Update 1:15 pm Caracas time

The CNE announces that the NO won by 50.7% and ~51%.

Now Chavez is going to talk

Update 1:10 pm Caracas time

CNE members moving to the press room apparently they are going to announce the results

Update 1:05 pm Caracas time

Things are not pretty, the NO campaign is being bared from the tally room. The reason the CNE is giving is that the NO campaign is to violent. I'm starting to think that the CNE is going to announce the SI vote won. How will the country react?

Update 12:49 pm Caracas time

Things seem to be getting tenser and rather ugly. We still have not recieved word and the NO campaing have been bared from the tally room. We saw this same thing during the referendum of 2004.

Update 12:25 pm Caracas time

So far nothing, representatives of the NO vote are outside the CNE and are visibly annoyed that the CNE still hasn't said anything. Apparently 85% of the votes are counted which should be enough to give a preliminary statement.

Update 12:00 pm Caracas time

Apparently the president of the CNE is going to release a statement in a few minutes

Update 11:30 pm Caracas time

I think everyone is getting a little nervous because their isn't an official word yet from the CNE. WHY???? At least they should hold a pres conference to say why things are taking such a long time and when the results will be released.

I think some of us are starting to worry that this will be a repeat of the referndum in 2004 and the CNE will announce Chavez won at 2am when everyone has gone to sleep.

Update 11:21 pm Caracas time

Still no official word, blah! so much for electronic voting. Antonia Ledezma is on TV saying the CNE shouold release the results with out wasting more time so Venezuelans can sleep in peace.

Update 10:56 pm Caracas time

Sorry I fell asleep for a minute, Rosales was talking, hahaha.

WOW, the guy really isn't a motivational speaker, this is probably why Chavez won last year. The speech is rather boring but he is hinting that the NO vote won.

Update 10:24 pm Caracas time
Back to the headquarters of the NO campaign. Freddy Guevara is speaking (student leader) congratulating all voters and asking people to stay and defend the vote.

J. Rodriguez is now on TV, again congratulating all voters for voting in peace.

Based on the speeches it seems the SI lost and the NO won, these are the same speeches that they have been giving for the past 4 hours. Rodriquez seems rather humble in his speech.

Update 10:10 pm Caracas time
Globovision breifly showed Leopoldo Lopez on TV and the conference they all seemed very happy, although Globo eneded up knocking him off the air now Henry Ramos Allup is speaking. Esentially saying they have results but are wating for the CNE and waiting to communicate everything to the government and have them recognize the results of the CNE so violence and confusion doens't take place.

Update 10:00 pm Caracas time

The NO campaign is setting up to hold a press conference aparently they have some results in hand.

Update 9:30 pm Caracas time

Nope, nothing yet. Although it seems things are getting tense lots of people talking from both the opposition and the govt.

Update 8:43 pm Caracas time

92% of the voting centers are closed and ~83% of the information has been transmitted to the CNE headquarters in Caracas. CNE said that this official results might not be released until 11pm.

Update 8:26 pm Caracas time

If i heard right a little while ago the CNE announced that 30% of the voting centers are still open. So this could be a couple more hours.

Update 8:00 pm Caracas time

Still waiting I'm starting to wonder if this is a lot closer than many people thought. Could this come down to vote by vote counting and differences of only a few votes?

Update 7:39

Still nothing the government radio station is just filling time while the CNE is doing their "stuff". Apparently 50% of the transmission were received by 7pm but between 7-8 is when the results were going to be announced.

Oh! I forgot to mention that a stage has been put up outside the presidential palace Miraflores and people are gathering to celebrate the SI vote.

Update 7:11 Caracas time

Right now you can tell people are nervous. THe minister of information Lara came out saying that the opposition knows what the outcome is and to honer it. In the mean time Blyde representing Un Nuevo Tiempo is saying the the same thing to the government. Hmm....

Update 6:51 Caracas time

La de da... still waiting for the results.

In the mean time I find this article highly irresponsible on the part of the government but more on the part of the news agency Reuters. In it they claim "based on government sources" that the yes vote (Chavez) won the reforms.

Reuters article

Voting in Venezuela has come to an end, unless people are still in line. Things seem to have been fairly uneventfull besides the Baudel incident and Chavez's ex-wife being verbally assulted and attempts to hit her by pro-Chvez groups. The most news came from the fact that lines were short and voting was quick since the fingerprint machines were not used, this is a good thing but does make everyone nervous about the abstention rate since we are used to judge voting by the length of the lines.

wait and see...

update

Belgium

Yes - 16
No - 27
abstention - 140

Election news

I received this via email

Japan outcome:

registered voters - 124
number of votes - 27

This is similar to last years presidential vote with 32 people voting last year, based on last years election 6 votes will probably be for Chavez.

- Apparently voting in Puerto Rico has been suspended due to protests against the reforms near the embassy.

- Reports are still sketchy but apparently after Baduel voted in Maracay a car tried to run him over but supporters did protect him, CNN reported that a shot was fired (from the car) but Baduel is not hurt but 4 individuals are hurt. Baduel is reported to be on his way to Caracas.

Vote tomorrow!

I just wanted to post something quick since I don't know if I will have time to until tomorrow night.

It is important to remember that no matter the outcome tomorrow we should not give up the fight for a better country. I say this because year after year Chavez has won his elections and the opposition quickly falls into a deep depression only to become euphoric again just prior to an election. I fear Dec 3rd won't be any different, but it is important that we work hard, organize ourselves, and plan for our day that will eventually come, which I'm sure will be sooner rather than later. In the mean time we should all go and vote.