Venezuela-US topics

Russia admits financial mistakes, don't count on Venezuela

2009-03-02T20:30:00.000-06:00

"I think the government should have been more conservative in its financial policy and save more money that it received from the high global oil prices," he said.

I did find this comment very strange:

Kudrin, who is also a deputy prime minister, said the financial crisis had set back the Russian economy by five years -- but added that the United States had fared even worse.
"We only retreated back five years," he said. "As far as I know, U.S. stock markets have fallen back 10 years."

He seems to be equating stock market performance with economic performance.

For Venezuela The Economist is forecasting GDP growth of -3% in 2009 and -5.4% in 2010 and an inflation rate well above 30% and government is ill prepared, hell they aren't even claiming responsibility.

Indefinite reelection vote

2009-02-15T17:40:00.003-06:00

update
So Chavez won, it's not surprising considering all the money and abuse of power the state engaged in. Oh well, if he didn't win today it would have been six months or a year from now when he surly would have proposed the question again.

Like everyone else I am waiting for the results of todays voting. If I were to guess I would say it is going to be close, my gut feeling is that the SI is going to squeak out a win.

Happy Birthday

2009-02-11T21:51:00.002-06:00

Today is the 200th birthday of Charles Darwin and the 150th anniversary of the publication On the Origin of Species"".

Sadly, still only about 40% of Americans believe in evolution.

It's also Lincoln's 200th birthday.

Two men that happened to have changed the world in two very different ways.

Chavez warns Obama part II

2009-01-20T12:37:00.002-06:00

a slight retraction:

After reading/viewing some other material it seems as though Chavez, in customary fashion, is intent on upping the verbal confrontation, this time with the Obama.

"There is still time" for Obama to correct his views, the Venezuelan leader said, but he added: "No one should say that I threw the first stone at Obama. He threw it at me."

The Venezuelan leader said that Obama is following orders from dark forces inside "the empire," as he refers to the United States. "If he doesn't obey the orders of the empire, they'll kill him," Chávez said, without offering details or proof.

Washington Post

h/t Greg for the link

Chavez warns Obama

2009-01-19T22:51:00.001-06:00

As expected Chavez has started to address Obama and begins to suggest that Obama is uninformed of events in Venezuela because the CIA and the people who are surrounding him.

Chávez consideró que con sus recientes críticas contra Venezuela Obama “está repitiendo lo mismo que Bush”, lo que, opinó, “es lamentable” porque hace que comience con mal pie la relación bilateral.

At multiple times Chavez says that "Venezuela is to be respected".

“Miren lo que comenzó diciendo (Obama), ¿Qué nos espera entonces? Seguir luchando. Ahora si él viene (Obama) a respetar a Venezuela, recibirá una respuesta respetuosa, si viene a dialogar, dialogaremos sin condiciones, con respeto, ¡porque este país y este pueblo se respeta señor Obama!”, expresó Chávez.

Click here to see the three available videos

Despite these warning I don't necessarily think US-Venezuelan relations are starting off on a bad foot, instead it seems both leaders are publicly stating what they expect from each other.

How not to act in public, especially on camera

2009-01-14T21:16:00.000-06:00

Below is a video got a lot of milage on the Chavez variety show but I thought I would comment on it.

First I would like to say the "reporter" working for Avila TV is unprofessional to say the least and it was obvious what his goal was, insult and get a reaction from Ravell or someone else in the opposition.

Now for the opposition, specifically Ravell (owner of globovision), I know he isn't a politician but he lacks tact, eloquence, maturity... Note to Ravell. Dude stay out of politics! His response to the "reporters" insult was saddening to say the least, to me it reinforces the idea in the viewers mind what Chavez has already claimed the opposition are, insulting, hot headed, full of anger, etc... So in effect the "reporter" was successful at his job.

Sigh, when will the opposition learn

Palangrista Yo...
Uploaded by pueblosoberano

Palling around with the yankee

2009-01-13T22:18:00.003-06:00

Chavez palling around with Oliver Stone. Look for the documentary soon!

BTW, didn't Chavez scold his followers for purchasing Hummers? Apparently as long as it's red and Chavez's Hummers or ok

Breaking news: Citgo Suspends Low-Income Heating Oil Program

2009-01-05T12:18:00.002-06:00

From the NYT:

BOSTON (AP) -- Citgo has suspended its free heating oil program for low-income residents, Citizens Energy Chairman Joseph Kennedy announced Monday.

Kennedy said the Venezuelan government's Texas-based oil subsidiary cited falling oil prices and the world economic crisis for forcing the company to reevaluate all of its social programs, including the heating oil program aimed at 400,000 households in 16 states....

Of course I feel bad for these low income individuals since they are likely suffering disproportionally more from the economic downturn, but it goes to show one should not rely on the revolution, you'll become disillusioned with it.

On another note my first impression is that Chavez is realizing all these free gifts (oil, homes, surgeries, loans, etc..) are expensive with little benefit. With the looming financial crisis at home he is starting to make cuts, I just wonder if he is going to be asking for repayment of loans soon (i.e. Cuba).

Venezuela: Sobering up to reality, but not just yet

2009-01-04T21:51:00.003-06:00

After about 5 years of living large off of cheap petro-dollars who has time to deal with an impending financial crisis when your trying to be president for life.

From the Economist:

Many private-sector economists believe that, if the oil price levels out at somewhere close to the budgeted figure, the government will be able to muddle through until 2010. But the economy is already cooling rapidly. Even optimists predict growth of no more than 3%, higher inflation and a fiscal deficit of at least 3%. Some expect zero growth.

Keen to avoid measures that look like “neoliberal” austerity, the government is doing its best to disguise and delay the necessary fiscal and monetary steps.

Since much oil is presold, the recent plunge in its price will start to be felt in earnest only this month. That is when Venezuela will start to feel a cold draught from the slowdown in the world economy. But with so much hanging on the referendum result, the president will do his utmost to cushion the immediate impact. That will almost certainly include raiding the reserves to help balance the books.

It seems as though whatever the out come of the constitutional amendment the spring will be the start of hard times for Venezuelans.

Happy New Year

2009-01-03T12:42:00.002-06:00

I've already broken my new years resolution of doing things on time. Happy New Year to all.

I'm looking forward to seeing what this year will bring to the political stage, with the new US administration and a Chavez administration that appears in decline.

Merry Christmas and watch for the flaming reindeer and Santa

2008-12-24T16:17:00.001-06:00

So I haven't posted in about a month, wow didn't think it had been that long, but I have been busy, lazy, and all politicked out. Once the new year starts I will start blogging again.

I want to wish everyone a Merry Christmas, happy holidays, winter solstice, etc...

For those of you hoping to catch a glimpse of Santa and his sleigh, well I hate to disappoint but the physics don't work in his favor.

Happy Thanksgiving

2008-11-27T10:49:00.002-06:00

Today I will be working on my third thanksgiving dinner of the week, thankfully it will be ham not turkey.

I hope everyone has a great thanksgiving!

sorry no voting news

2008-11-23T21:55:00.003-06:00

I have been in Washington D.C. for some days and sick with the cold so I've been out of the loop.

Probably my only comments on the pending election out come is that any wins and increase in control by the opposition will be seen as a win for the opposition and a loss for Chavez.

It's over. Finally! Thought's on the US presidential election

2008-11-09T23:59:00.001-06:00

There are so many reasons why I think Obama is the right person for the presidency, not that we can do much about it now. As Andrew Sullivan wrote back in December 2007 in the Atlantic (A highly recommended read):

Obama’s candidacy in this sense is a potentially transformational one. Unlike any of the other candidates, he could take America—finally—past the debilitating, self-perpetuating family quarrel of the Baby Boom generation that has long engulfed all of us. So much has happened in America in the past seven years, let alone the past 40, that we can be forgiven for focusing on the present and the immediate future. But it is only when you take several large steps back into the long past that the full logic of an Obama presidency stares directly—and uncomfortably—at you....

Given this quiet, evolving consensus on policy, how do we account for the bitter, brutal tone of American politics? The answer lies mainly with the biggest and most influential generation in America: the Baby Boomers. The divide is still—amazingly—between those who fought in Vietnam and those who didn’t, and between those who fought and dissented and those who fought but never dissented at all. By defining the contours of the Boomer generation, it lasted decades. And with time came a strange intensity.

For many of us non-baby boomer generation, we have viewed this fight being waged and inadvertently have been dragged into it with a strange sense of confusion and curiosity. However, this of course is toxic to both our political process and our society, for eight years we have created a blue vs. red state mentality this resentment is made worse by our increased geographic segregation of like minded individuals. It is because Obama being the only candidate who is not from the baby boomer generation who is truly the only one capable of getting this country past this divide.

Does an Obama presidency mean a new generation of liberalism and democratic party rule? Personally, I don't think an Obama presidency will be as liberal as many fear my guess it will be left of center similar to that of Clinton's. Although I do think that Obama's win could mark the beginning of a growing political shift to the left, in part a result of the aging baby boomer generation and of course due to the Bush presidency.

A big reason why I think an Obama presidency could mean a more liberal shift is partly due to the number of new and young voters Obama has brought into the political process for the first time. Most of these voters are registered democrats and will likely remain that way, potentially a big plus for the Democrats long term. This is in part why Obama was the superior candidate for the democrats versus Hillary.

A potential liberal shift is probably a simple generational shift that naturally occurs over time, but the unpopularity of the Bush administration its policies and conduct play a big factor, including the difficult economic probably brought this shift more quickly.

The republican party

Ironically the most damage imposed on the republican party was by republicans themselves. Over the past eight years (certainly the past four) we have seen the republican party lose the support of moderates, independents, fiscal conservatives, Latinos, among others. The main voting block that remains are the social conservatives, while an important group they have pulled the party to far to the right and focus on a few issues namely abortion and gay marriage. The problem for the party is that if democrats continue to make gains or retain their power the republicans will have to moderate their tone. This moderation however will not play well with the social conservatives, so it would seem the longer abortion and gay marriage are front and center the harder it will be to regain power.

I don't want to get into a lengthy discussion of abortion or gay marriage but I do want to say that these and other controversial issues may harm the republican brand if they remain front and center. It seems as though the younger evangelical voter is more concerned with social equality, poverty, environment than fighting the unwon wars of their parents and grandparents generation. It is these voters the republicans should focus on.

McCain Palin the final blow

I was quite excited when McCain won the nomination, of all the republican candidates he stood out as the most moderate and with the greatest potential to rebrand the republican party as a centrist party. Sadly the announcement of Palin was probably the worst decision the campaign could have made (note I originally thought she was a great strategic choice). Her choice stood against almost everything I thought McCain had going for him, moderate, bipartisan, reformer, repudiation of Rovian politics. Instead the campaign continued to play the Nixon-Rove style politics of personal attacks and anti-intellectualism. I know this is a bit simplistic since McCain faced an uphill battle following a Bush presidency, a bad economy, a poorly run campaign, and out campaigned by the democrats. However, it does in my mind represent an unfortunate continuation of a political strategy and mentality that has been rejected by voters for fours years now. I was originally hopeful McCain could forge his own style of campaign by moderating the republican party, instead he chose Palin to appease an ever more radical evangelical base. This time many moderates, fiscal conservatives, intellectuals, and military types finally decided to repudiate this style of politics and direction for the party.

It was refreshing to see McCain deliver his concession speech on Nov 4th I only wish he would have shown more of that moderate style during his campaign. Perhaps the outcome is the best for the republican party, now they can do some soul searching and hopefully rebuild the party and decide what the party ultimately stands for.

Concluding remarks

First and foremost I'm glad the elections are over, the suspense was exhausting. I am personally excited and hopeful under the new Obama presidency, although it is clear the US is in a very complicated position economically, and being in Iraq and Afghanistan. This will require bipartisan effort to solve these issues and since the democrats are now the majority in both houses and now the presidency it is up to them to prove they are as effective as they claim to be. On a cautionary note one of the worst things they can do is to flaunt their majority and engage in partisan politics, otherwise my feeling is that voters will reject them as they did to the republicans.

Done voting

2008-11-04T09:29:00.002-06:00

I just finished voting. I will say I was impressed with the number of people considering the small voting precinct. There were about 15 voting booths and all were full with about 6 people waiting with their ballots. There was an additional 30 people in line waiting or getting their paper work in order. Granted this was about peak voting time, I was impressed since past years it isn't half this full at around this time of day.

Nov. 4th

2008-11-04T07:48:00.002-06:00

For what it's worth, here is an electoral map compiled by www.538.com

Obama 98.1% chance of winning
McCain 1.9% chance of winning

I will probably updating this a few time today.

GO VOTE!!!

2008-11-03T18:20:00.002-06:00

After what seems to be an eternity we are almost over with this presidential campaign. As for me tomorrow I will be waking up early and voting, for Obama of course, then spending the evening with friends watching the results on television.

During this long year I have found many Venezuelan's paranoia, to but it bluntly, towards Obama with a sense of curiosity. Many of these peoples fear is from the simple fact that Obama is calling for "change" which was what Chavez called for, but this is where the similarities pretty much end. After the elections I hope to write about the campaign and what I think we, as Venezuelan's, should take away from it.

Now go out and vote for your candidate of choice!

Pumpkin Pi ?

2008-10-31T11:52:00.002-05:00

Happy Halloween

Guess which pumpkin is mine, haha.

Catching up on Venezuelan news

2008-10-28T22:18:00.002-05:00

I've been rather focused on the US elections that take place seven days from today, so I've been a little out of the loop with the details of stuff going on in Venezuela. However, honestly, it doesn't look like to much new or unexpected.

I think the most worrisome news is the decline in oil prices, remember all those PSF that said oil wouldn't decline. I've lost count how many times they have been wrong.

This from The Economist:

For each $10 drop in the oil price, the government gets $5 billion (1.4% of GDP) less in revenue, according to LatinSource, a consultancy. Mr Chávez said this month that an oil price no lower than $80 was “sufficient”. But the economy is already deteriorating. Oil-dependency has risen; nationalisation, bullying and meddling have deterred private investment; a fixed and overvalued exchange rate has stoked imports. In 2006 growth was 10.3% and inflation 17%; the latest growth figure is a 7.1%; inflation is 36%. Foreign debt is up from $30 billion to $44 billion. The cost of credit has risen. Opaque statistics make it hard to gauge Mr Chávez’s room for manoeuvre. Fonden may contain some $15 billion; central bank reserves are about $27 billion. But the underlying trend is clear.
A devaluation risks setting off a downward spiral of inflation and rising poverty. As Mr Chávez scales back spending he will have to choose between losing influence abroad or losing popularity at home. Already he has quietly cancelled a promise to build an oil refinery in Nicaragua.

In light of 50% drop in oil prices and the possibility of the opposition making inroads with the upcoming elections, Chavez has been aggressively campaigning. What does a Chavez campaign look like? Oh... lets see, first you illegally record telephone conversation of your opponents, then you release them to be broadcast on the state (Chavez controled) news station, then you accuse your biggest rival of corruption and have the National Assembly, which you control,to open an investigation.

Don't forget that you prevent other candidates from running for office on trumped up charges. But it isn't just the candidates that are on the receiving end of Chavez's threats but also the voters by stating that in places where opposition candidates win he will withhold funds to local governments

National Electoral Board (CNE) member Vicente Diaz is calling for his colleagues to look into the Chavez violating article 145 of the constitution, 210 and 18. don't hold your breath.

The vet who did not vet

2008-10-24T12:29:00.002-05:00

pure brilliance

What if the world could vote?

2008-10-07T21:12:00.005-05:00

The Economist has been running a poll, its not scientific and only open to subscribers so you know it's biased towards the pointy headed elitists of the world :) .

It's pretty evident that Obama wins hands down, the only countries where McCain show's strength is Georgia (winning), Macedonia (winning), and Slovakia (Obama up slightly).

The vote breakdown in Latin America is rather interesting McCain and Obama run the closest in El Salvador (48% to 52%), I'm unsure how to explain this considering Obama has such a strong lead in the rest of America.

Venezuela and Colombia show the smallest difference (besides El Salvador) McCain (~37%), Obama (~62%). My feeling is that there is a fear that Obama might not support Colombia militarily or with free trade as a McCain presidency might. As for Venezuelans I think there is fear that Obama is the Chavez of the north. Most other countries support Obama by about 70-80%.

Click here for a more up to date map

Read into it as much as you want, I just found it fun.

Chavez offers economic advice to US

2008-09-28T19:57:00.000-05:00

In light of the US economic crisis, Chavez offered his advice to the US "I think the United States should start a constituent process to create a constituent assembly, a new truly democratic model."

Evidently a new constitution solves all problems, I guess that's why Venezuela's economic performance is the among the best in the world. You know with the high inflation (running about 30%) and food shortages, and all.

McCain wins Friday debate

2008-09-26T12:16:00.003-05:00

I shit you not

Considering the debate hasn't even taken place yet, I would like to know exactly how McCain actually won it.

I don't think Chavez would even be so bold in insulting the voters intelligence

Click here to read the story and see the ad that was posted in the Wall Street Journal this morning, even before McCain said he in fact would be at the debate.

Obama, Venezuela, and Latin America

2008-09-23T21:47:00.003-05:00

Earlier this year during one of the democratic candidate debates Obama stated he would be willing to hold talks with world leaders the US considers our "enemy" including Chavez. Naturally many, including Venezuelans, saw this as a sign of weakness and Obama being naive. I disagree.

Obama has correctly pointed out that Chavez, during the Bush presidency, has exploited the void left in Latin America by the US due to it's engagement in Iraq, and combined with our disastrous policy towards Latin America, Chavez has easily fomented anti-american sentiment.

Obama afirmó que lo que debe hacer su país es dar a conocer a Chávez que no están interesados en que siga propagando el sentimiento anti-estadounidense en la región, pero que está interesado "en entablar un diálogo respetuoso con todos en América para buscar la manera de mejorar su calidad de vida", subrayó.

I do find the notion of not engaging with Chavez a proven failure of a policy (ie. Cuba). We have held high level meetings with every country in the world (excluding Cuba) that we have considered enemies (North Korea, Iran, Syria, etc...).

In other news, Obama condemned Chavez and his anti-democratic credentials, after his expulsion of the representatives of the NGO Human Rights Watch.

As I have stated on multiple occasions, between McCain and Obama it is Obama who will likely have the best ability to contain Chavez's influence in Latin America. At the very least black and indigenous groups in Latin America, who predominately still identify with Chavez, will feel some affinity to Obama if not because it is a change for Bush but because of Obama's race.

Politics

2008-09-17T22:16:00.006-05:00

If we ignore the person, I find that this picture reveals a lot about political campaigns. To me captures the sinister nature of politics and how dirty it really is. Many of us hope for honor, integrity, and civility in politics, but you know lurking behind is that big dark shadow. When campaigns get heated the shadow is revealed rising above the honor, integrity, and civility and ushering in the dark side of politics and the people in them.

picture by Jill Greenberg

McCain's "change" : "...Lipstick on a pig is still a pig"

2008-09-09T20:54:00.005-05:00

This is how Obama describes McCain's best effort to call his campaign all about change, when in fact he is offering very little change from the past 8 years.

Despite the republicans best efforts, in no way can Obama's comments be misconstrued as sexist or a personal attack. Instead the phrase is an old idiom, which ironically enough was used a year ago by McCain describing Hillary Clintons health care proposal. But of course now that Obama uses it to describe McCains fake "change" he is called sexist.

This almost rivels Obama's comparison of Hillary Clinton to Annie Oakley.

For those Venezuelans who may not be familiar with the term, it is similar to "el mono vestido de seda mono se queda"

Image taken from Innovation to win

New BFF: Russia and Venezuela

2008-09-07T21:42:00.001-05:00

So what else is Chavez to do with billions of dollars worth of new weapons purchases (mainly from Russia)? Well..., since the US seems to refuse to invade Venezuela, and Colombia isn't falling for Chavez's tactics, the next best thing is to play some war games with Russia.

The war games will take place between November 10th and 14th in the Caribbean, according to reports 4 Russian ships along with Venezuelan ships and submarines.

Of the two countries, I would say Russia has the most to gain from these exercises. Like Cuba, Venezuela looks to be the new pawn in Russia's new geopolitical game.

Venezuelan politician invited to the Democratic National Convention

2008-08-26T19:18:00.001-05:00

According to this press report the Democratic National Convention, which is underway in Denver, has a space for various world leaders to be present. Present at the DNC will be Venezuelan national coordinator for Primero Justicia Julio Borges who will be presenting on the state of democracy, the Chavez imposed reforms, and the inhabilitaciones.

Borges was invited by the National Democratic Institute (NDI), which has been working with PJ developing democratic values. Curiously the NDI identifies itself more closely to the democratic party.

Interestingly, only a couple of months ago Leopoldo Lopez had a brief meeting with Obama and was invited by another democrat, Richard Daily of Chicago.

So I ask, where has the republican party been? Anyone?

You know the revolution is struggling when....

2008-07-15T22:30:00.004-05:00

Well with all of the millions of dollars spent promoting a good name for Chavez and Venezuela in the US, all the Venezuelan embassy and its propaganda arm, the Venezuelan Information Office, can show for it is giving out light bulbs. Seriously, is this what the revolution has resorted to, giving out light-bulbs in the name of solidarity? Talk about high profile media event, clearly this is providing the biggest bang for the buck investment by Chavez in his propaganda strategy.

The comical thing about it is the woman in the story is also receiving subsidized oil from Venezuela and now she is getting energy efficient light bulbs. Apparently Citgo realized that giving things away cheaply makes people be wasteful, so I guess this is Citgos way of cutting costs.

Ok, so I shouldn't totally bash the idea since I do support the use of CFL's, but come on, they cost like 10 bucks for a 6 pack at Wal-Mart. If these people were that concerned with saving money they would have switched by now.

Obama expresses support to Venezuelan politicians

2008-06-23T14:36:00.002-05:00

For a some months now some of my fellow bloggers have express concern about what an Obama presidency may hold for Venezuela. In particular how some supporters of Obama show admiration for Che, Fidel, and Chavez, yet Obama himself has had harsh words for Chavez, but rather than go into a lengthy discussion about why their fears are unfounded I thought I would start posting information from the candidates themselves on issues related to Venezuela.

This past Saturday Barack Obama spoke at the U.S. Conference of Mayor's convention in Miami, FL. At the meeting Chicago mayor, Richard Daily, presented the current Venezuelan election situation. It focused on violations of political rights, namely the banning of about 400 candidates most of them from the opposition, including the mayor of Chaco Leopoldo López, who was in attendance at the US. Conference of Mayors.

Daily, made the case that these individuals have not been found guilty in a court of law, consequently the actions by the Chavez government is in violation of the American Convention on Human Rights.

At the end Obama expressed his solidarity with Lopez and the other candidates, reminding him that he would always on the side of democracy and human rights.

Image taken from Noticias24

A "new" Chavez

2008-06-11T23:55:00.000-05:00

Somersaults, U-turns, backtracking, these are just some words used by the media have described Chavez's behavior these past few weeks. Whatever word you want to use to describe Chavez's recent behavior it appears that an increasing number of people are finding his socialism of the XXI century a little hard to swallow.

Coming off of the electoral defeat in December, Chavez seems to have lost his step and with the up coming elections in December for governors, mayors, and councilmen ,Chavez and his authoritarianism could be in jeopardy.

So why is Chavez making all these somersaults/backflips/U-turns? The simple answer is because his former VP Jose Vicente Rangel is no longer working in Miraflores. Personally, I never saw a man lie with such a straight face and twist and contort issues all to protect his boss, Rangel was good, real good at protecting Chavez and giving him a good public face. However, now that Rangel is gone Chavez has realized that the minions around him are simply mediocre at best, so he is having twist and contort controversial issues to protect himself. This is costing him he is taking the brunt of controversy, making him seem weaker, and not in tune with the country, not good coming off an electoral loss, worsening economy, increasing unpopularity, and an upcoming election that can pose a significant setback to his presidency.

I have long thought that Chavez has never really been in that much control, Baudel during the last year informed us Chavez rarely attends ministerial meeting. Miguel at Devil's Excrement discusses how Chavez has mostly disowned the recently proposed intelligence bill by referring to the authors as "they", evidently Chavez did not have a role in it but then who are "they"?

As time goes by and as more intellectuals leave the revolution for greener pastures it is becoming self evident that Chavez lacks the intellectual prowess to formulate a revolution, let along govern a country.

Sadly the only thing left surrounding Chavez, and governing and running Venezuela are bunch of mediocre individuals.

random news

2008-06-03T22:38:00.001-05:00

Seeing that I have some spare time, from being stuck in my basement seeking shelter from a potential tornado, I thought this would be a good time to cover a few news events from the past few days.

On Friday Chavez rejected the resignation of the minister of information Andres Izarra. Last week Izarra sent a letter, targeting specifically Globovision, informing the media that they would have to pay $55/sec of video footage used from the government. Sadly all opposition media is barred from government events making coverage near impossible.

I'm waiting for the Venezuelan government to start editing video by removing people, a la Russia.

So what's up with the CNE and those elections back in Dec 2, 2007? Well the CNE finally said they will release the complete voting results sometime next week. This despite the law saying the CNE is obligated to release the complete results within 30 day s of the vote.

After many years of debate it seems the Venezuelan government is going to continue its nationalization binge and take over all gold mining.

US politics

Well looks like the Democratic primary is finally over, with Obama securing the nomination for the Democratic party. There is so much I want to say about this but I will save if for a future post.

Musing about the US elections

2008-06-01T22:04:00.000-05:00

Finally this weekend the democratic party met and came to a ruling on how the Florida and Michigan delates should be divided up. Unfortunately, the Clinton campaign is still unhappy and is making some noise that they may take this to the convention in Denver, like many people I don't think this will happen. Instead, this will probably be over in the next week or so.

Entitlement

By all measurable accounts Clinton does not deserve to be the nominee, now don't get me wrong I think she is very smart, very capable, and would make a decent president. But... she has run a rather poor campaign, particularly from May 5th to the present. There is just so much about her campaigning that I find sad and childish and very unbecoming for any politician let alone someone running for president.

For me it all started with the fake teary eyed Hillary, personally I've seen better acting in a B movie. But it was after May 5th when things went down hill very fast for Clinton. Her campaign never thinking the primary would last past super Tuesday found itself bankrupt which it is still (I'll comment on this in a soon to be future post) and unprepared for the long primary battle ahead.

Seeing that she was in trouble she turned into a rather unsavory person. For instance to pump up her foreign policy/masculinity she began making claims she was sent to Bosnia under snipper fire, which was proven to be false. To make this incident even more ironic she later claimed she misspoke because of lack of sleep, but she repeated the mistake on multiple occasions. To make matters worse she came out with a tv ad asking viewers who would they rather have answering the phone at 3am in the White house during a crisis. Personally I would rather have anyone but her, since apparently she can't remember if she landed in Bosnia under sniper fire or if a young girl handed her flowers (which happened to be the case).

Recently she was on air saying we would "wipe Iran off the map" if they attacked Israel. Well... while most people (including myself) would support Israel retaliating and the US getting involved, her language is again not language a president or presidential candidate should say.

I prefer PBR, thank you very much

One of the big complaints about Clinton was how disengaged she was with voters, clearly this was a misstep in her campaign because Obama capitalized on this. To make up for lost ground Clinton resorted to political pandering to the voter group, low income less educated white people, she saw mostly supporting her. The two funniest incidences were the gun toting Clinton who Obama called Annie Oakley, and when Clinton ordered Crown Royal at a local rural bar. The irony here is how she is trying to portray Obama as elitist and herself as the all american country working woman. Pleeeease.... First of all it is whisky in a purple velvet bag? as if that doesn't scream elitist, she should be ordering up some Wild Turkey or Jim Beam, how about a mint julep or perhaps some PBR or Schlitz. Second of all Crown Royal isn't even American, its Canadian, how un-American she might as well be supporting terrorists.

The other issue was gas prices, originally Mc Cain called for the gas tax holiday (btw, a stupid idea). But Clinton pounced on the idea too and made a big deal about it, it was clear she had no intent on fulfilling this promise but she needed the votes.

What if you don't like the rules?

Now I come back to the beginning of my post about Michigan and Florida. Both of these states broke party rules and both Clinton and Obama agreed to not campaign there, and not have those delegates count. It is strange now that Clinton is fighting to have all the delegates seated is now very concerned with the voters of those states. She has even gone as far as to compare the situation to Zimbabwe, well then perhaps we should now put her jail too.

I have also been amused by how Clinton has twisted voter numbers in every which way so it appears she is ahead and can convince the American public and super delegates she is beating Obama. It is also interesting how she has said that caucuses don't count, I'm sure those states and their voters don't agree.

Clinton's latest strategy, and the saddest, seems to be trying to make the case that she is a victim of sexual discrimination and there is a conspiracy within the democratic party. I believe the actual phrase is "a vast left-wing conspiracy". I say good luck with that. I wish she would just own up to the fact she has run a poor campaign.

In the end it has become more apparent that Clinton feels entitled to the presidency and she is upset that a new and up and coming politician is beating here, especially since for so long the Democratic party was the Clinton's not the other way around. For these reasons I don't think she deserves the nomination or the to be in the White House.

I'm back

2008-05-26T20:23:00.001-05:00

I'm finally back in the States after a couple fun weeks in Spain. It will take me a few days to up to speed on current events since I have pretty much been isolated from any news throughout my trip. The only Venezuelan news I managed to come across was an article in El Pais (I think) that reported on Chavez dropping his legal battle against his ex-wife seeking sole custody of his children. Apparently Marisable made public the harassment she has been receiving from pro-Chavez groups, she has lost he state appointed car, and hasn't been receiving alimony, all due to her recent remarriage to Felix Lisandro Garcia a tennis instructor. Interestingly Marisable is currently running for mayor of Barquisimeto in the upcoming elections in December.

During my trip, I found it humorous how the Spanish were still making fun of the whole "porque no te calles incident" in particular the press since Zapatero was about to make a trip to South America.

Thoughts and observation on Spain

Even though I have been to Britain and France before i still can't get over the fact that Europeans still seem incapable of making a functional bathroom, specifically a shower. I can understand not having a fixed shower head but at least make the shower enclosed in glass or have a curtain so one doesn't flood the bathroom, which I managed to do on a couple of occasions.

I was impressed with the energy conservation being implemented throughout the country, including a two button flush toilets, hall way lights set to motion detectors, compact fluorescent bulbs, and of course the prevalence of wind turbines.

Two of the most frustration things I found about Spain were the schedules and road signs. I quickly realized that opening times were simply times when one had the highest probability of the establishment being open. Of course it being open does not necessarily mean it is open to customers, and closing times don't necessarily mean that it will be closed past that time.

Apparently, the EU has been pumping money into Spain because it seems half the roads are new, therefore maps seem rather useless. To make matters worse road signs are written in what I would describe as 12 pt. text size font, and sometimes they are placed so close to exit ramp, or after the ramp, that you miss your exit.

After an enjoyable vacation sightseeing and visiting museums, with the added minor frustrations with the local culture, I am happy to be back in the States.

Vacation

2008-05-06T09:01:00.002-05:00

I was going to try and post something before I go on vacation, but as you can see that isn't going to happen. I will be in Spain for a couple weeks and won't be posting anything, hopefully when I get back I will feel inspired.

cheers to all.

Cuba better place than Venezuela for doing business?

2008-04-22T20:41:00.003-05:00

Yup, apparently Cuba is projected to be a better place to do business over the next five years than Venezuela. Only Angola ranked worse. Click here for the original article in the Economist .

I don't think it is necessary to go into much of a discussion about this, other than to say that it is ironic to see Venezuela nationalizing (buying out) foreign companies and resorting to state controlled development while Cuba under Raul seems to be realizing private ownership of farms and homes is the solution to some of its problems.

Olympic torch should visit Venezuela

2008-04-09T00:04:00.000-05:00

After the debacle of the torch run in France and England, today it made a secret and short trip to San Francisco, clearly the Chinese Olympic organizers didn't do their homework because it would have found a much more friendly crowd in Venezuela.

Yesterday the Venezuelan government had a press release supporting the Chinese governments position "against the incessant and systematic campaign against the country during the past few weeks".

The press release calls the demonstrations a "mediatic manipulation of the demonstrations by violent groups in the autonomous region of Tibet", hold on it gets better, "it is formulated in the psychological warfare laboratories of the United States that they use to destabilize countries that don't adhere to the rules of the empire".

The press release goes on to accuse the United States "elite" of orchestrating these events out of jealously because of the "admirable developmental progress China has exhibited".

So... I guess Tibet shouldn't count on Venezuelan support anytime soon. One can only hope Chavez will end up in one of the many realms of hell, preferable one that isn't human.

Venezuelan Forecast

2008-03-10T22:01:00.003-05:00

Mar 6th 2008
From the Economist Intelligence Unit
Source: Country Forecast

Outlook for 2008-09

- Hugo Chavez’s defeat in the December 2007 referendum on constitutional reform will give a boost to the beleaguered opposition. However, its internal divisions will prevent a major political realignment in the near term.

- The government will continue to use the state’s wealth of energy resources as leverage to deepen diplomatic and commercial relations with countries it considers“friendly”within and outside the region.

- The government is unlikely to move towards full state control of the economy, but concerns about further nationalisation will curb private-sector investment.

- The central government deficit is forecast to widen in line with falling non-oil revenue, but the true fiscal position will be worse, as an increasing burden of expenditure will be placed on PDVSA and Fonden.

- Deficiencies in the policy environment and a stabilisation of fiscal revenue will combine to produce a deceleration of GDP growth in the forecast period.

- Assuming that oil prices remain high, the authorities are unlikely to devalue the bolivar until 2009. Sales of US dollar-denominated assets will increase, but the gap between the premium and official exchange rates will remain large.

Monthly review

- In January seven opposition parties signed a pact indicating their intention to choose a single candidate for at least the most important posts in the November local elections.

- A dispute between the government and a US oil company, ExxonMobil flared up in early February, with Mr Chavez threatening to halt crude supplies to the US in retaliation for Exxon’s legal actions abroad.

- In February the finance ministry placed a reported US$100m-150m in structured notes (backed by Argentine and Ecuadorian bonds held at Fonden) at 15 local banks in an attempt to drain excess liquidity.

- Following a wage dispute with Sidor, the country’s largest steelmaker, workers went on a series of strikes in late January.

- GDP growth slowed marginally to 8.5% year on year in the fourth quarter of 2007. This brought full-year growth to 8.4%, representing a slowdown from growth of 10.3% in 2006.

- The current-account surplus fell to US$5bn in the fourth quarter of 2007, largely on the back of strong import growth.

Economic data

- Following his victory in the December 2006 presidential election, Hugo Chavez is expected to remain in office throughout the outlook period. He will retain a firm grip on power, owing to his complete control over the legislature and extensive influence over other institutions. However, the opposition has the potential to capitalise on its victory in the December 2007 referendum on constitutional reform. This will keep the political environment polarised, particularly in the context of government policy radicalisation, which also has the potential to intensify conflicts within the broad government alliance. In the medium term, these factors could combine to reduce support for the president and erode political stability and governability.

- The radical economic policy agenda of the government, which is centred on expanding the state-led development model, will exacerbate deficiencies in the business environment, and Venezuela will remain a challenging place in which to invest. Investment in most sectors is unlikely to thrive against a background of distortionary macroeconomic policy (characterised by price and exchange controls), threats to property and contract rights, unpredictable state intervention and a growing bureaucratic burden. Even in the dominant energy sector, foreign investment will be below potential. The burden of oil investment will fall increasingly on the public sector, but here there are questions over efficiency and technical capacity.

- Double-digit GDP growth in 2004-06 will not be sustainable in the outlook period, and growth is forecast to slow towards 3.5% in the medium term, as the fiscal stimulus weakens and the deficiencies of the present policy framework are reflected in a slowdown in private investment. The long-standing structural problems of oil dependency and an inefficient and costly public bureaucracy are unlikely to be tackled. Economic distortions will persist, as exchange controls trap excess liquidity in the economy, resulting in double-digit inflation throughout the outlook period. Forecast annual step devaluations of the fixed exchange rate from 2009 will place further pressure on prices.

- Venezuela is at the peak of another oil-fuelled boom. In the past, these have been followed by spectacular crashes in the wake of oil-price falls. However, with world oil prices expected to remain high for a prolonged period, the economic cycle is likely to prove to be more drawn out. But with little achieved in the way of structural reform and the policy environment increasingly unconducive to private investment, sustainable development of the non-oil economy over the medium term appears unlikely.

Chavez can't control Chavez

2008-03-03T20:53:00.003-06:00

To be honest I've been a little out of the loop during the past couple of weeks, since I have been dealing with work, and unfortunately it has nothing to do with the topic of my blog.

Anyways, by now most people are aware of the confrontation going on between Colombia, Ecuador, and Colombia, if not please click on the links on the right. What I think is bizarre about the whole thing is that Chavez on Sunday was ready to declare war on Colombia when in fact this whole issue didn't affect Venezuela. If Chavez were a statesman and truly wanted to be a leader of South America he could have tried to diffuse the situation and ask all parties to keep cool. I'm sure Lula is shaking is head at this moment and will have to try and diffuse the situation. I wonder if Lula ever gets tired of cleaning up Chavez's messes? Note that said Lula and not Insulza the president of the OAS, reports I have read say he is more concerned with running for president in Chile in 2009 than running the OAS.

So what should we make of Chavez sending battalions to the Colombian boarder? eh.. not much we are still waiting for Chavez to stop selling oil to the US.

“This is just another of Chávez’s orders made without thinking, and without any military advice,” said Miguel Aparicio, a retired general and security analyst in Caracas. “We are getting used to his impulsiveness and instability – it is an empty threat.”

In addition, Venezuelan military strength is no match to that of Colombia's.

While Mr Chavez’s order to send tanks and fighter jets to the Colombian border had the aura of a declaration of war, few are taking the threat seriously. Analysts say Venezuela’s army would be no match for an adversary with 254,000 people on active service – more than twice the size of Venezuela’s 115,000-strong force – who have been in permanent training for the past four decades in a war against various insurgent groups.

“Chávez has spent a lot of money on expensive [military] toys, it’s true, but instead of serious training, soldiers seem to spend much of their time carrying out tasks like manning government market stalls,” said Mr Aparicio, in reference to Mr Chávez’s policy of giving the military an increasing role in civil society.

Analysts note that many in the Venezuelan army, particularly commanders, would be loath to enter into open conflict with what they consider a “brother” nation.

Probably the thing I find most interesting is how Uribe and Chavez are completely opposite in their personality. While Chavez is used to the Venezuelan opposition getting into a tizzy over any little thing he would says, Uribe is very different. In every verbal conflict that has occurred between the two, Uribe has clearly shown that he knows how to deal with Chavez, mainly by not engaging in his verbal insults, not falling for his provocations, and acting in a calm and coordinated fashion. This might be part of the reason why Uribe is not sending additional troops to the boarder with Ecuador and Venezuela, even though both of these countries are doing this.

It's apparent that this conflict will be around for while especially since Colombia claims to have evidence linking Chavez and Correa to the FARC. Namely the claim that Chavez gave the FARC $300,000 and the FARC giving Chavez $50,000 back during the 1990's.

This claim of money transfer between Chavez and the FARC poses two interesting questions. If in fact Chavez received money in the 1990's I'm sure other people are aware of this say Jose Vicente Rangel, which I'm sure would never say anything. But perhaps Luis Michelena might know more about this. I also wonder if the $300,000 given to the FARC is a business deal, in other words Chavez gets his five or six hostages released making him look like a saviour and a peace maker, and the FARC get $300,000. Not a bad deal from what I can see.

Them crazy white gringos (Ted Kennedy)

2008-02-25T16:41:00.001-06:00

Ok, this is to funny to not post:

Apparently someone left the liquor cabinet unlocked :)

Clearly Latinos are becoming an increasingly important demographic group to US politicians, but does Ted Kennedy really have to sing in Spanish. I just hope Obama doesn't lose votes because of it.

Fidel and a short break

2008-02-19T23:07:00.002-06:00

After 46 years it looks like the US embargo against Cuba has finally worked, Fidel is finally gone from power. Yes I'm being sarcastic. There was a time when the embargo likely served its purpose but that day has long since passed, I continue to believe that trade and opening up to Cuba is the most effective way to bring about democracy and prosperity to the Cuban people.

On a separate note I have to take a short break (1-2 weeks) since I have to attend to work/career obligations. I will try to sneak in a post or two but who knows. If anyone is interested any short term blogging feel free to contact me :)

Venezuela: Exxon and the media

2008-02-10T23:13:00.000-06:00

By now most readers have heard about the court order on Exxon's behalfagainst the Venezuelan oil companies (PDVSA) international assets. What many people including myself were waiting on was how would Chavez respond to this move. Well today we found out during Chavez's Sunday variety show. Below is a youtube clip of todays show.

To be honest there is little to be surprised about it's more of the same rhetoric we have heard over the years, the only difference is that it is directed at Exxon calling them thieves, corrupt, mafia, agents of imperialism that commit genocide, etc...

Chavez also said he would be willing to cut off oil supplies to the US if this economic terrorism continues, ya nothing new here. I'm sure there are more than one person in Washington that would love to call Chavez's bluff and dare him to do it, I know I would like to. Venezuela is in no position to be stop oil exports, due to its dependence on oil exports, and US being the only major viable market, plus oil is a fungible commodity and any price change would impact Venezuela more than the US. Plus the Venezuelan's would likely not be in a mood to tolerate Chavez's wild adventures since basic food items are in short supply as it is.

Below is a short clip of a "documentary" on Exxon that was produced by the state funded public television station VTV.

Whether you like ExxonMobile or not this "documentary" is highly biased and in many cases it lies. But then again when was the government interested in the truth or unbiased media. Of course in the words of the minister of communication Andres Izarra Venezuela and "canal 8 (VTV) is acting in situation of a mediatic war". This must be the reason why they closed RCTV last year and are now turning their sights on Globovision and Unionradio, with the "National Assembly supporting legal actions against Globovision".

If only the Venezuelan government were as efficient and effective in closing media outlets as managing and improving the economy.

Super Tuesday

2008-02-04T21:04:00.000-06:00

To be honest I haven't been paying a lot of attention to the intricacies of Venezuelan political news as of late. Instead I have been engrossed in the upcoming US primaries. Most readers I'm sure know that tomorrow is a big day for both republicans and democrats. I think it is safe to say that on the republican side Senator John McCain will be the republican nominee. The big question is who will be the nominee for the democrats, previously I predicted Clinton would be the front runner against McCain, well I would like to change my prediction and say that Obama will win.

The Obama campaign has been on a tear lately raking in some very high profile endorsements including John Kerry, Patrick Leahy, and more recently Ted Kennedy, Caroline Kennedy, and even Maria Shriver (yes, Arnolds wife and also a Kennedy clan member). For those interested I found this link on the NY Times website showing some of the various endorsements all the candidates have received to date

The most recent news I have seen is that Clinton and Obama are in a statistical tie (Obama 49%, Clinton 46% +/- 4.5%). The interesting fact is that with time Obama's numbers trend higher, and since the democratic primary is more drawn out than the republican one this will likely play in Obama's favor.

As for this blogger, I will be casting my presidential primary vote tomorrow, and in case anyone is interested I will be voting for my senator, Barack Obama.

Venezuelan News

Most of the news I have read has been more of the same with Chavez still preoccupied with the FARC and insulting Uribe. Meanwhile, food shortages continue to get worse and of course Chavez's solution is to seize goods and threaten producers. In this link you can see a video of the chaos brought by milk shortages, one can only assume that if this continues the chaos will turn violent leading to riots.

As if the financial future of Venezuela were not more in question by the run up of debt by PDVSA from 2.9 billion in 2006 to 16 billion in 2007, we get this article from Reuters

CARACAS, Feb 2 (Reuters) - Venezuela's state-run oil company PDVSA is seeking a $1 billion up-front payment for several large shipments of fuel oil, El Universal newspaper reported on Saturday, in what may be a new sign of cash flow problems.

Under the deal, Venezuela is selling the fuel relatively cheaply but wants payment next week, the newspaper said.
PDVSA wants to find buyers for eight very large crude carrier cargoes of fuel oil by Feb. 6 and expects payment the following day.

Random news on Venezuela: Politics, Oil, and Dengue

2008-01-23T19:59:00.000-06:00

Here are a few things I thought are worth mentioning that have been going on in Venezuela.

Politics

- The opposition political parties (Accion Democratica, Causa R, COPEI, MAS, Premero Justicia, Proyecto Venezuela, and Un Neuvo Tiempo) signed an agreement of unity including a commitment to 10 points. I don't find the 10 points very interesting nor very significant, however I do find their apparent commitment to unity ahead of this years elections very hopeful. In their agreement of unity these parties are prepared to select candidates by consensus either from polling data or primaries. Lets hope the parties can put their differences and cacique mentality behind them.

- The Venezuelan government has called for the apprehension of ex-supreme court justice Luis Velasquez Alvaray on corruption charges. While I would not doubt he was involved in corruption, one shouldn't forget that this man has all sorts of juicy information on former and current Chavistas, including the shady business deals involving Makarem and Valbuena, yes the owners of PetroTulsa and North American Opinion Research.

- In other legal news Attorney General is bring charges against former Minister of Finance Tobias Nobrega on corruption charges. Again like Alvaray these Nobrega is more than likely guilty, but I can't help seeing how the government choses who to prosecute based on if they considered no longer useful or in Chavez's favor.

PDVSA

- Apparently the Venezuelan government is trying to squeeze as much money it can out of Citgo, since they announced that between 500-700 contractors, responsible for maintenance, were let go at the Louisiana refinery. The duties of those contractors will be added to the 150 full time maintenance workers, this is surly very concerning since maintenance will most likely fall putting refinery in danger, but more importantly people and the environment.

What I find interesting is this quote:

"Citgo wants to send 100 percent of what it makes to Venezuela," said a source. "They're only spending what's needed to meet legal and regulatory obligations."

So Venezuela ships oil to the US, refines it, then ships it back to Venezuela to sell for 14 cents a gallon when the market price in the US is ~$3.00. Clearly this is bad for business and is a huge subsidy to Venezuelan motorist.
In other PDVSA news, the state oil company borrowed $12.1 billion dollars in 2007 alone with Citgo borrowing $1 billion to support PDVSA. The current total debt of PDVSA is now $16 billion

In other news

-According to the polling company Datos, Chavez's popularity is at 30%, with the number one issue among voters being insecurity in Venezuela. Something Chavez has never addressed strongly nor been able to control.
Today Chavez hinted that food prices at state run supermarkets "Mercal" will likely have to raise prices since items like milk are "super subsidized". So not only are Venezuelan not able to find milk easily but soon they will shave to pay more for it. I wonder how will the 30% will accept this.

- What has become a daily event Chavez threatened businesses against hoarding food products, stated that if the opposition wins in the regional elections later this year it would be a coup, etc... but wait today we have a new one, today Chavez called on to investigate rumors that an outbreak of a sever form of dengue in Zulia was "created in the laboratory". Thankfully, he hasn't accused the empire, Colombia, or the opposition for the outbreak, yet.... perhaps all three worked together to create this deadly strain? or could it be the a decline sanitation in Venezuela?

A little election excitement in the US

2008-01-17T21:40:00.000-06:00

Every year Venezuelans endure yet another election with 2008 being no different this time voting for mayors, councilmen, and governors. If the opposition can manage to unit and campaign well, they may be able to pull off another victory against Chavez so 2008 will be an exciting year. Equally exciting but with far fewer consequences is the US presidential election slated for Novermber 4th. The most exciting aspect of the campaign has to be how open the campaign has become, especially on the republican side. Here is a little factoid: not since the election of 1928 has no vice-president or incumbent been running for office, this along with Americans desire for change has made this campaign exciting.

Democrats
It is now fairly clear that either Obama or Clinton will be the Democratic candidate. According to the recent Zogby poll both candidates are in a statistical tie with both attracting the same level of independent voters and among males and females; however, blacks and young people tend to favor Obama. Among those individuals that vote who are "republican light" they tend to highly favor Obama, so the question becomes how will this influence the remaining democratic primaries.

Republicans
The most noteworthy aspect here has to be the volatility of the candidates, with Huckabee winning Iowa, McCain New Hampshire, and Romney Michigan, making this a three way race. If Giuliani manages to pick up Florida it could be a four way race. This volatility is reflected in the Zogby poll that now shows McCain (28%) with a slight edge over Huckabee (23%) in a national poll. Both Huckabee and McCain seem to attract a similar level of support from registered Republicans, however, McCain manages to attract more support from independent voters, and men and women, with Huckabee attracting more support form young people.

During an interview of John Zogby he stated that according to his polls voters are now tending to favor experience in a candidate, this is fairly reasonable considering the current economic situation with the US potentially entering a recession. This favoritism towards experience is showing a benefit towards Clinton and McCain, and Romney to a lesser degree.

A rumor that has been circulating is that the mayor of New York City (Bloomberg) might though his hat into the ring as a an independent. If he does, which seems unlikely, my guess would be that it would divide the republican voters more than the democratic voters. This would especially be true if Huckabee or Romney become the nominee since their candidacy would attract the social conservatives and Bloomberg the fiscal conservatives.

It looks as though pollsters and the media will be hard at work trying to figure out who will be the nominee for both parties until super Tudesday February 5th when 22 states hold their primaries.

So I will go ahead and make own prediction. I still think Clinton will be the Democratic nominee although her chances seem to be getting slimmer by the day, with just today Patrick Leahy announcing he will support Obama and with John Kerry endorsing him last week. On the republican side, obviously much trickier, I will predict McCain as the nominee.

Venezuela’s way ahead

2008-01-13T22:47:00.000-06:00

Below is an editorial that was published in the December 13th, 2007 issue of Nature, vol.450; 922. My comments are at the end.

The opportunities currently opening up for
Venezuelan science should not be squandered.

The president of Venezuela, Hugo Chávez, suffered his first electoral defeat for a decade on 2 December, when he unexpectedly lost a referendum on constitutional change that was supposed to cement his powers and accelerate socialist reform. The opposition was spearheaded by protest marches of hundreds of thousands of students, along with their professors. But the left-populist president, for all his flaws, has broadly supported universities and scientific research in Venezuela.

Chávez sees himself as the leader of a socialist revolution, modeled on the egalitarian ideals of Simón Bolívar, the Caracas-born general who led the liberation of much of South America from Spanish rule in the early nineteenth century. Chávez has nationalized major industries, including the oil companies, and has increasingly distanced Venezuela politically from the United States, its largest trading partner. Rapid economic growth has been sustained by the rising price of Venezuela’s oil exports.

The Venezuelan president, while openly confronting the oil companies and other national élites, has taken steps to keep academics on his side. Like army officers, Venezuelan professors can retire at the age of 47 and receive generous pensions for the rest of their lives.

Not everyone takes this up — but a sizeable fraction of the 33,000- strong academic workforce do just that. Professors also have the right to choose their own students. Their tendency to choose from the upper middle class may explain some of the student protests against Chávez’s socialist government.

On the other hand, measures have been taken to strengthen the universities. In 2001, the government created a Ministry of Science and Technology, which distributes grant money on a competitive basis. And in January 2007 the Organic Law of Science, Technology and Innovation (LOCTI) came into effect, requiring Venezuela’s 7,000 largest companies and commercial enterprises to pay a fraction of their annual taxes directly to universities and public research institutes.

Overall public and private spending on science has quadrupled, to US$2.5 billion per year, the government says, reaching a very respectable 2.1% of gross domestic product in 2007.

As a result of these measures, some academics say, the Venezuelan science system is suddenly receiving more support than it can sensibly manage. Companies are investing in research projects as they see fit, without a proper system for evaluation of the proposed work. The government is now evaluating the first year of the work supported by LOCTI and must then find ways to channel more of the money into the most promising projects.

Obvious national research priorities range from infectious-disease research and rainforest ecology, to engineering and environmental problems related to oil retrieval.

One problem is that few departments at Venezuela’s 50 or so universities have sufficient staff and equipment to perform internationally competitive research. Another issue is that many professors are not especially interested in doing original research, as regular publication is not necessarily rewarded with promotion. Making research a prerequisite of a successful academic career — which should not end at the age of 47 — is the key to making Venezuelan science more productive.

Plans also exist to turn the country’s premier research institute, the Venezuelan Institute for Scientific Research in Caracas, into a full-blown research university. This will help to produce qualified and motivated graduate students who can take Venezuelan science forward. The institute should have enough income from public and private sources to set up new centres in the Andes, the Amazon region and in the oil-rich state of Zulia in northwestern Venezuela — all of which need to raise their research profiles.

The referendum result has raised hopes that Venezuela’s democracy will outlive Chávez, and build on some of his genuine achievements. The advent of stronger science at Venezuela’s peripheries, as well as in its capital, is one legacy that could prove invaluable.

My comments
Personally, I found the editorial a little to optimistic about the future of science in Venezuela. For one the Chavez government dismantled one of the countries premier research institute Intevep, the one responsible for the R&D for PDVSA to develop new oil and natural gas technologies. In the past few years Veneazuela has experienced a sharp decline in the number of technology patents sought , indicating that new ideas and technologies are not being protected resulting in a decline in technological competitiveness. This is compounded by the now failed constitutional reform to remove intellectual property rights, including those for technology and science developments.

I am not alone in concluding Venezuela is not a promising place for science and technology. A while back I posted some information by the National Science Foundation that concluded this same point. In that same blog post I also provided data showing that Venezuela lagged other Latin American nations in published science publications, in particular Brazil, Chile, Mexico, and Argentina all of which have seen a steady increase in the number of publicans.

It doesn’t bode well when the Minister of Science and Technology advocating creating a new time zone for Venezuela because it was a matter of “justice”, yes these are the same people who will be responsible for allocating money to research projects.

As you can see I found the editorial more hopeful than realistic. By most indicators the ability for Venezuela to significantly develop its science industry doesn’t look as promising as it should. Even less promising is Venezuelas ability to capitalize on scientific and technological developments. This primarily stems from diminishing intellectual property rights, the rather hostile environment for private companies, and a weak legal system.

Obama wins Iowa as does Huckabee

2008-01-03T23:55:00.000-06:00

Since I tend to ignore the US part of my blog I thought I would help to change that by announcing Obama won the Iowa primary as did Huckabee.

I think what is surprising is that Obama won by a rather significant percentage. 8% over Edwards and 9% over Clinton. In five days New Hampshire will hold their primary. Well see how the campaign develops

Saying goodbye to 2007 and hello to 2008

2007-12-31T14:29:00.000-06:00

The year 2007 brought a lot of unexpected outcomes in Venezuela. It started with Chavez riding high after his, rather impressive, presidential victory decided to re-nationalize the telephone company CANTV and nationalize electricidad de Caracas. With time the quality of the services provided by both will decline bringing back the era waiting years for a telephone connection that plagued CANTV pre-privatization and rolling blackouts that still occurs in Venezuela.

Soon after returning these national assets to the "people" Chavez decided to turn his sights on what had been a torn in side for years, the television station RCTV. While not backing down on its closure and despite public opinion polls saying they were against it he followed through with his decision. Unfortunately, this move sparked what would become the biggest newsmaker of the year, the student movement.

For years almost every sector of society took up the political cause either for or against Chavez, except, for the most part, the university students. Most people, including myself, wondered why had this typically politically active group not organized itself and become more active. Strangely it was the closure of RCTV that seems to have acted as the solidifying force behind its organization and activism.

Clearly the student movement did not happen overnight since its organization and activism had been taking place over the past few years (i.e. with Nixon Moreno). Was their vocal activism against the closure of RCTV simply a convenience of two events taking place at the same time along a political void left by the opposition? It would certainly be interesting to read how the student movement developed and how they have become a rather strong protagonist it was has become the Venezuelan drama.

In the early fall is when things began to pick up once again with the constitutional reforms. During this time Chavez gave Mercosur an ultimatum in its admission into the group, of course this was more for show since Venezuela still has not been granted full membership yet. Around the same time Chavez announced that Venezuela was going to change time zone by 1/2 an hour so children wouldn't have to get up for school in the dark. Of course a much simpler solution would have been to change the school hour not the time zone.

One of the biggest stories of the year, which is still playing out, is the $800,000 that was caught being smuggled into Argentina by Antonini. According to FBI documents the money appears to have had been destined for the Kirchner political campaign. It also seems to have involved people people in the Venezuelan government including who have given lucrative contracts to Antonini, Duran, and Kauffmann. Then of course we can not forget the famous quote "Por que no te callas?" by the King of Spain.

The biggest story of the year was clearly the defeat of the constitutional reform proposed by Chavez on Dec 2nd. Clearly this marked a turning point for both those who oppose Chavez and Chavez himself. It demonstrated that Chavez can lose an election and that those who have voted for Chavez in the past are not all die-hard Chavistas. Of course the defeat for Chavez would not have been possible for without the student movement and former minister of defense, Baudel, and the political party Podemos.

This is my own list of things I think might mark major political events in 2008.

interesting and promising events:

Baudel continues to campaign for holding a "asamblea constituyente" hold signature drives and revoke members for the national assembly and hold new elections in order to increase its plurality and to stop Chavez from passing laws unopposed. This strategy is a little risky since election are to be held for mayors and council men throughout Venezuela.

Of course the students. What role will they play will they continue to play a rather apolitical role? Will the leaders or the movement that have graduated allow the baton to be passed onto a new crop of student leaders? Then for those that have graduated will they form their own political party or will they join and the ranks for established parties bringing new blood and ideas that they so desperately need.

potential to flounder or make gains

Really the only person I can think for this is Chavez. 2007 wasn't terribly kind to him I would even say he lost more than he gained and for the first time ever. Internationally he has made gains and had losses, numerically I would say he is currently at a net of 0 change, mostly because he accepted the defeat on Dec 2nd and is now seen as having some clout in freeing some FARC hostages.

2008 will be more interesting since the economy will probably start eroding his popularity at home while Chavez seems more focused on international events. Chavez has also managed to remove most of the intellectual people in his administration. Combining this with the student movement, Baduel, and Podemos Chavez may find his revolution even less popular.

Little hope

Like every year the political opposition makes the list, although I will say they have more going for them than before. Mendoza clearly played an important role during the constitutional reform vote but is probably unlikely to play a major role on the front lines. Primero Justicia appears to have the most going for it while Un Neuvo Tiempo and Rosales are unlikely to make any major gains. It will probably take many years and hard work for these political parties to make long term significant gains, ultimately I think it will come down to their approach to leadership will it be the current style of top down or a more democratic one of bottom up, which seems to lack in most of Latin America.

Finally the Bolivar Fuerte. Yep, the new currency! Somehow the new currency is going to solve the financial problems in Venezuela. Hell I'm still waiting on what 21st century socialism is. Granted removing 3 zeros isn't a bad idea but it hardly solves the economic problems of Venezuela, which the government finally seems willing to admit. Go figure, they have now done a 360 and decided to remove price controls on many products and let the market decide the price, shhh... just don't call it capitalism.

I hope everyone has a wonderful new year, this blogger is going to enjoy it with friends and some Cava.

Merry Christmas

2007-12-25T11:28:00.000-06:00

I hope everyone had a wonderful Christmas, as for me I spent it with family and friends Venezuelan style with gaitas, hallacas, pan de jamon, pernil, and of course Venezuelan rum, the only thing missing was being in Venezuela.

The suit case that just won't get lost

2007-12-12T22:44:00.001-06:00

Readers may remember "Maletagate" the now infamous Alejandro Antonini who was caught entering Argentina with $800,000 in undeclared cash in his suitcase.

At the time various individuals were named who had close association with the Chavez government and have also recently obtained significant financial wealth. It was also claimed the money was destined to the campaign of Cristina Kirchner, who now is Argentina's president.

Today we were treated to a new twist, apparently the FBI have been busy doing an investigation into the money since some of the individuals live in Miami and are now being accused of not registering as foreign agents. Probably the biggest source of concern for the Chavez government is this statement from the Financial Times:

According to an affidavit signed by an FBI agent, the defendants told Mr Antonini, who has not been charged, that high-ranking Venezuelan government officials, including the office of the vice-president, members of the intelligence services, and a high-ranking official from the justice ministry of Venezuela, were aware of the matter.

Not only that but the Justice Department in their Criminal Complaint state that the Venezuela intelligence services played a role in the matter and that the money was indeed destined to help the campaign of Kirchner. The DoJ is asking the five individuals be denied bail since they constitute a flight risk.

Of course the Foreign Minister of Venezuela has moved swiftly to accuse the US. government of investigating the matter in order to damage its relations other South American countries. At least its good to see that the Chavez government isn't denying their involvement in the matter, just that the US has picked a "convenient" time to announce the arrests.

Like most of the businessmen that have been popping up in the Venezuelan news they tend to have "companies" registered in Miami. One the individuals named by the Justice Deparment is a Rodolfo Wanseele who has registered a company called Wanpac, INC. It also looks like he has a nice Condo. in Miami at

210 Fontaine Bleau Blvd
#412
Miami FL, 33172

also registered with him are a Maricela O. Miliani and Maricela Olivar - same person but for some reason they dropped the Miliani

More links can be had by visiting VenezuelaToday on the link section on the right.

Chavez's post reform vote frustration

2007-12-06T22:27:00.000-06:00

I think most people, me included, we counting on and hoping for a rather peaceful low stress holiday this year. After all Chavez did concede defeat Sunday night, albeit not as humbly or graceful as one would hope. But this is Chavez we are talking about. So of course Chavez ended sabotaging himself, after all the good press he had received, by calling the opposition win shit among other choice words.

Of course Chavez doesn't take losing well as we are starting to see, but rather than reflect on why he lost he has turned to blaming others for his loss and decided that intimidation of opposition figures, in true totalitarian style, is the best why to deal with his frustration.

Yesterday he referred to those that didn't vote for the reform "lazy and irresponsible", then saying they lacked a conscience, dignity, courage, and the love for the homeland.

"El presidente venezolano, Hugo Chávez, reprendió hoy públicamente a sus seguidores por haber sido "flojos e irresponsables" y no haber ido a votar a favor de su propuesta de reforma constitucional, que fue rechazada en referendo el pasado domingo.  

"Para mí no valen excusas (...) una buena parte (de los simpatizantes oficialistas) no fue a votar, millones que no fueron a votar (...) no tienen excusa. ¡Falta de conciencia, falta de resolución por la patria, falta de coraje, falta de dignidad", opinó Chávez en un acto oficial en Caracas.

What's the best way for Chavez to antagonize the opposition? Intimidation of course, and that is what ex-governor of Miranda received when the state called for his detention for ordering the "taking over" of the state television station on April 11, 2002.

Then today we have the vice-president, former president of the national electoral board, stating that the government is going to open an investigation into Jose Silva Peñado one of the European Union election observers present on Sunday. He his being accused strategizing with the opposition with the intent of destabilizing Venezuela.

Finally what better way to rally the Chavista troops than to beat up, literally and figuratively, on Globovision. Below is a video recorded by a Globovision cameraman who was going to cover a story but was beat up by the Metropolitan police instead.

In other news
As I predicted might happen with a Chavez loss, some Chavistas are jumping ship (i.e.vice-minister Villegas), others are in danger of losing their job.

So much for a quiet and peaceful holiday in Venezuela.

BTW, I highly recommend these two new articles published in the Economist. Defiantly a must read!

The wind goes out of the revolution

The beginning of the end for Hugo Chavez

Post election thoughts

2007-12-03T09:26:00.001-06:00

It's official now the No vote won against Chavez's plan to rewrite 69 articles in the constitution. While Chavez is still in the presidency this is a small but significant win for the opposition. Not only does it prove the Chavez can be defeated but it shows that if the opposition is organized enough the CNE can be trusted and a persons vote does count, while the claims for fraud are no longer a reason to abstain from future elections.

Of course some things did play in favor of the No vote such as Chavez's increasing totalitarian rule (i.e. closing RCTV), his fight with the political party Podemos, and the worsening situation of the economy. One of the biggest factors in the defeat of the SI vote was the student movement. For once it showed that a grass roots movement that leaves the confines of the upper and middle class areas of Venezuela is essential to win over voters.

If I can be so bold to make a prediction, I am willing to say that the revolution is crumbling. The final nail in the Chavez coffin will be the economy so the opposition needs to be ready to take advantage of this in the near future.

voting is closed

2007-12-02T14:03:00.000-06:00

Update 1:20 pm Caracas time

Essentially Chavez concedes defeat and says Venezuela's democracy is maturing. It also sounds like Chavez didn't want to concede until he was sure the voting tendency was irreversible. Of course he says that once he realized it was irriversible he wanted to the best thing for the country by announcing his defeat. Isn't he nice for saving our country from violence, blah!

good day indeed, going to bed since I don't want to stay up the next 3 hours listening to Chavez babble

Update 1:15 pm Caracas time

The CNE announces that the NO won by 50.7% and ~51%.

Now Chavez is going to talk

Update 1:10 pm Caracas time

CNE members moving to the press room apparently they are going to announce the results

Update 1:05 pm Caracas time

Things are not pretty, the NO campaign is being bared from the tally room. The reason the CNE is giving is that the NO campaign is to violent. I'm starting to think that the CNE is going to announce the SI vote won. How will the country react?

Update 12:49 pm Caracas time

Things seem to be getting tenser and rather ugly. We still have not recieved word and the NO campaing have been bared from the tally room. We saw this same thing during the referendum of 2004.

Update 12:25 pm Caracas time

So far nothing, representatives of the NO vote are outside the CNE and are visibly annoyed that the CNE still hasn't said anything. Apparently 85% of the votes are counted which should be enough to give a preliminary statement.

Update 12:00 pm Caracas time

Apparently the president of the CNE is going to release a statement in a few minutes

Update 11:30 pm Caracas time

I think everyone is getting a little nervous because their isn't an official word yet from the CNE. WHY???? At least they should hold a pres conference to say why things are taking such a long time and when the results will be released.

I think some of us are starting to worry that this will be a repeat of the referndum in 2004 and the CNE will announce Chavez won at 2am when everyone has gone to sleep.

Update 11:21 pm Caracas time

Still no official word, blah! so much for electronic voting. Antonia Ledezma is on TV saying the CNE shouold release the results with out wasting more time so Venezuelans can sleep in peace.

Update 10:56 pm Caracas time

Sorry I fell asleep for a minute, Rosales was talking, hahaha.

WOW, the guy really isn't a motivational speaker, this is probably why Chavez won last year. The speech is rather boring but he is hinting that the NO vote won.

Update 10:24 pm Caracas time
Back to the headquarters of the NO campaign. Freddy Guevara is speaking (student leader) congratulating all voters and asking people to stay and defend the vote.

J. Rodriguez is now on TV, again congratulating all voters for voting in peace.

Based on the speeches it seems the SI lost and the NO won, these are the same speeches that they have been giving for the past 4 hours. Rodriquez seems rather humble in his speech.

Update 10:10 pm Caracas time
Globovision breifly showed Leopoldo Lopez on TV and the conference they all seemed very happy, although Globo eneded up knocking him off the air now Henry Ramos Allup is speaking. Esentially saying they have results but are wating for the CNE and waiting to communicate everything to the government and have them recognize the results of the CNE so violence and confusion doens't take place.

Update 10:00 pm Caracas time

The NO campaign is setting up to hold a press conference aparently they have some results in hand.

Update 9:30 pm Caracas time

Nope, nothing yet. Although it seems things are getting tense lots of people talking from both the opposition and the govt.

Update 8:43 pm Caracas time

92% of the voting centers are closed and ~83% of the information has been transmitted to the CNE headquarters in Caracas. CNE said that this official results might not be released until 11pm.

Update 8:26 pm Caracas time

If i heard right a little while ago the CNE announced that 30% of the voting centers are still open. So this could be a couple more hours.

Update 8:00 pm Caracas time

Still waiting I'm starting to wonder if this is a lot closer than many people thought. Could this come down to vote by vote counting and differences of only a few votes?

Update 7:39

Still nothing the government radio station is just filling time while the CNE is doing their "stuff". Apparently 50% of the transmission were received by 7pm but between 7-8 is when the results were going to be announced.

Oh! I forgot to mention that a stage has been put up outside the presidential palace Miraflores and people are gathering to celebrate the SI vote.

Update 7:11 Caracas time

Right now you can tell people are nervous. THe minister of information Lara came out saying that the opposition knows what the outcome is and to honer it. In the mean time Blyde representing Un Nuevo Tiempo is saying the the same thing to the government. Hmm....

Update 6:51 Caracas time

La de da... still waiting for the results.

In the mean time I find this article highly irresponsible on the part of the government but more on the part of the news agency Reuters. In it they claim "based on government sources" that the yes vote (Chavez) won the reforms.

Reuters article

Voting in Venezuela has come to an end, unless people are still in line. Things seem to have been fairly uneventfull besides the Baudel incident and Chavez's ex-wife being verbally assulted and attempts to hit her by pro-Chvez groups. The most news came from the fact that lines were short and voting was quick since the fingerprint machines were not used, this is a good thing but does make everyone nervous about the abstention rate since we are used to judge voting by the length of the lines.

wait and see...

update

Belgium

Yes - 16
No - 27
abstention - 140

Election news

2007-12-02T11:38:00.000-06:00

I received this via email

Japan outcome:

registered voters - 124
number of votes - 27

This is similar to last years presidential vote with 32 people voting last year, based on last years election 6 votes will probably be for Chavez.

- Apparently voting in Puerto Rico has been suspended due to protests against the reforms near the embassy.

- Reports are still sketchy but apparently after Baduel voted in Maracay a car tried to run him over but supporters did protect him, CNN reported that a shot was fired (from the car) but Baduel is not hurt but 4 individuals are hurt. Baduel is reported to be on his way to Caracas.

Vote tomorrow!

2007-12-01T13:05:00.000-06:00

I just wanted to post something quick since I don't know if I will have time to until tomorrow night.

It is important to remember that no matter the outcome tomorrow we should not give up the fight for a better country. I say this because year after year Chavez has won his elections and the opposition quickly falls into a deep depression only to become euphoric again just prior to an election. I fear Dec 3rd won't be any different, but it is important that we work hard, organize ourselves, and plan for our day that will eventually come, which I'm sure will be sooner rather than later. In the mean time we should all go and vote.

Venezuela: The closing "NO" rally

2007-11-29T20:49:00.000-06:00

Daniel, FT/Katy, and Miguel have been very busy posting great and up to the date information on the events unfolding in Venezuela. Since I can't compete with their coverage I thought I would try to complement and post on some of the other related news going on in Venezuela.

Since 2000 the opposition and Chavez had been at war as to whose rally is bigger, but it has been difficult to compare since they are often held in different places. This year it is different since both will be at Av. Bolivar. Since I like google map and I thought I would try to make a quick estimate of the rally size aided using pictures. Picture came from Tiburon Uno at Noticiero Digital.

*Note - white line designates the length of the rally in Av. Bolivar

used for crowd estimate:
length = 1,360 meters
width = 25 meters

If we assume there were 4 people per sq meter, I have read estimates of up to 6 which seems a little to high, than there were at least 136,000 people in Av. Bolivar. This of course is an underestimate since people were in side streets and likely beyond Teresa Carreño theater. As far as I remember Chavez has never been able to fill Av. Bolivar although he has come close.

Now for news, today a mayor in the state of Tachira broke ranks with the government and urged people to vote NO on Sunday. I wouldn't say this is particularly significant in of itself, but I do think it shows that some people are willing to gamble assuming Chavez will lose the reform which might lead to all sorts of unknowns. I am sure that many other government officials are taking a wait and see approach, if the NO wins look for massive defections from Chavismo, if the SI wins they will breath a sigh of relief and continue supporting the revolution

Government response

Rather than acknowledge the size of the closing campaign for the No vote, Diosadado Cabello, governor of Miranda, decided to say they did not fill it, that it was fake created by manipulating the cameras which the television station Globovision has a habit of doing.

Then we have Jesse Chacón, Minister of information and telecommunications, who presented to the media a video "showing" that members of the opposition are planning to reject the outcome of Sundays vote if the SI wins. He accuses politicians and the church as being behind the potential destabilizing acts against Chavez.

The NGO reporters for the truth (pro-governemnt) asked the national electoral board to deny reporters from CNN from covering Sundays vote. The claim is CNN is attempting against peace and stability due in part to a mistake (admittedly) when CNN showed a picture of Chavez and Uribe with the question "who killed him?".

Closer to home (my home at least) we have Venezuelan ambassador in Washington, Bernardo Alvarez, complaining that the U.S. media coverage of the constitutional reforms is "terrible". It is hard put a positive spin on a president for life, among 68 other constitutional reforms, that is if you want to retain any respect and unbiasedness in your reporting

I am interested to see the government out in full force tomorrow,but if todays rally in Pto. Ordaz is any indication tomorrows rally won't be a resounding success. Then again Chavez is quite the master at winning elections.

Chavez: Venezuelas Caesar

2007-11-27T22:07:00.000-06:00

The German magazine Dar Spiegel recently published an article that I think was able to capture many elements of what is going on in Venezuela.

The article starts by discussing how the once die hard popular street groups, Tupamaros is no longer supporting Chavez and his reforms. Sadly they have been substituted by armed militias, that answer to Chavez, and they keep tabs on the local citizens.

The "23 de Enero" neighborhood was once a bastion of the Tupamaros. But last week the group unexpectedly withdrew its support for the president, angry over the constitutional reforms Chavez wants Venezuelans to vote on in a referendum on Sunday. In response, pro-Chavez militias have driven the Tupamaros out of the city's slums.

Not only have the Tupamaros, the political party Podemos, and Baudel distanced themselves form Chavez but we are also told that one of Chavez's advisors is now distancing himself (Heinz Dieterich). I also find it interesting how Chavez's metal state is now opening being seen and written about.

Chavez has staked his political future on Sunday's referendum. Unless he wins with a significant majority, new elections will be unavoidable, writes Heinz Dieterich, a German-born professor and top advisor to Chavez who is gradually distancing himself from the president. But the narcissistic president -- who considers himself a reincarnation of South American revolutionary hero Simon Bolivar -- is increasingly losing touch with reality. Surrounded by loyal supporters, he no longer permits criticism, while his excessively generous self-image borders on the grotesque.

The article ends discussing that even if Chavez does get his reform it will be a short lived victory since no amount of constitutional reforms and political rhetoric will be able to hid the current economic situation.

The "socialism of the 21st century" he hopes to establish in the new constitution is more likely to fail as a result of the age-old ills of socialist planned economies: corruption and incompetence. Milk has been scarce in Chavez's oil-rich nation for weeks. A liter of milk now sells on the black market for more than a bottle of whiskey in a restaurant. Shoppers stand in line for hours to buy staples like chickens, sugar and meat.

Nevertheless, economist Orlando Ochoa is firmly convinced of one thing: "Economically speaking, there will be a crash by the middle of next year."

Slowly but surely people are realizing that Chavez is not the solution to the countries ills but is instead creating and ignoring them. The only reason he has been in power for 8 years is money, but when the party is over and the people sober up they will find a very big mess, a mess that will take a lot of time and hard work to clean up.

Revised Constitutional reform article 98

2007-11-21T11:41:00.000-06:00

I was told were I could find the new articles under reform (hat tip to Daniel) I have translated the new article 98 and incorporated it, also I provided a few more comments. Please see previous post.

Article 98: Patents and the decline of innovation in Venezuela

2007-11-18T16:58:00.000-06:00

In May I posted information published by the National Science Foundation (NSF) that discussed science and engineering in Latin America. In it they reported that Brazil, Argentina, and Mexico have been trending upwards in technology development to become "high-tech exporters". Not surprisingly Venezuela ranked the lowest of the countries scored, mainly because: "[it] suffered because it was considered the riskiest or least attractive site for foreign investment". Instead of stimulating foreign and domestic investment and encourage technology development, the Chavez government has made decisions that adversely affect Venezuelans competitiveness and economy while currently they are taking steps to further discourage innovation. Specifically within the constitutional reform, to be voted on December 2nd, a modification to article 98 is planned. The original article states:

Cultural creation is free. This freedom includes the right to invest in, produce and disseminate the creative, scientific, technical and humanistic work, as well as legal protection of the authors rights in his works. The State recognizes and protects intellectual property rights in scientific, literary and artistic works, inventions, innovations, trade names, patents, trademarks and slogans, in accordance with the conditions and exceptions established by law and the international treaties executed and ratified by the Republic in this field.

Modified article 98 - text changes are underlined

Cultural creation is free. This freedom includes the right to cultural diversity pertaining to invention, production and dissemination for creative works, scientific, technological, and humanistic, including the legal protection and rights to the author for their work. The state recognizes the rights of all to participate in the cultural community, enjoy the arts, and participate in scientific technological progress, and enjoy their benefits.

The most concerning aspect of this reform is that it limits protection to cultural diversity, to the exclusion of any protection that may be strictly intellectual or economic. In addition, the term "cultural diversity" is non-specific, how should one define it or interpret it? More than likely the interpretation will be left to the court system which is controlled by Chavez.

A simple interpretation of the new article suggests that most science and technology would not be protected since most do not contribute to cultural diversity. There are countless examples of how this will affect Venezuela, from books to merchants with the sole goal of bringing everything under state. State control has proven to be inefficient and a hindrance on scientific and technological progress, the participation of the private sector and intellectual property protection is essential for it to flourish.

It is clear that the Chavez government is reforming and will interpret the new article in a way that will significantly decrease intellectual property rights and severely limit patent protection. In the words of National Assembly member Carlos Escarra these are economic (i.e. capitalist) rights not cultural rights. Cultural rights constitute art, poetry, and literature whereas "inventions" have economic benefits. Apparently, Escarra fails to realize that art, music, and literature do have economic benefits to the inventor, through the sale of their work.

It is unfortunate that the new reform is designed to decrease patent protection since it is well established that patent protection, along with property rights and decreasing state bureaucracy play key roles in spurring innovation and economic development, ultimately leading to decreased poverty. This is not a new concept, but Chavez seems intent on creating a society based on a barter system and where some of the most important technological advances, such asOrimulsionis being phased out while giving the Chinese the technological knowhow for production while collecting little to no royalties.

The proposed reform to article 98 is simply putting on paper what the Chavez has been doing for years, either directly or indirectly though his actions. To see how Venezuela has declined in technological innovation we can look at the number of U.S. patents awarded to individuals in Venezuela (see graph below).

In the graph we see that Venezuela averaged about 32 patents a year from 1993 to 2002. From 2002 to 2006 the number patents dropped sharply to 15 after hitting a 13 year low of 10 in 2005. The most probably explanation for this sharp drop in patents is Chavez's decision to purge PDVSA of political opponents, particularly those the PhD investigators at PDVSA research institute (INTEVEP), where 66% (108 out of 164) were fired. The loss of highly skilled/educated individuals comes at a huge loss to the State, making it less competitive, reducing innovation and investment, resulting in a less diverse economy and loss of potential revenue. The loss of these investigators is particularly damaging to PDVSA since it accounts for the bulk of the economy and requires technological innovation to stay competitive among the other oil companies. Sadly this loss is long term since the time and investment required to create a highly skilled worker with a PhD is high, approximately 5 years of education and $300,000 not counting the experience needed post PhD. Making the Venezuelan situation worse is that most of these skilled workers have left, and/or have been prevented from working in Venezuela, thus they have emigrated and sought jobs with other petroleum companies taking their knowledge and skills with them. So who loses? Venezuela.

Over the years we have seen how Chavez has made decisions that adversely affect innovation in Venezuela, now the Chavez government is poised to modify article 98 which will further discourage investment and innovation that will not only affect the oil industry but the wider economy. The Venezuelan chamber of franchises has already stated that modification to article 98 will negatively affect that business sector, which has seen significant growth and now accounts for 2.2% of the GDP.

The modification of article 98 is an obvious decision by the Chavez government that will only lead to decreased technological innovation in Venezuela. However, this is only one decision, although a significant one, among many that Chavez has made during the past 10 years that will adversely affect Venezuela for many years.

Venezuela: Chavez the megalomaniac and the constitutional reforms

2007-11-11T20:07:00.000-06:00

So much has happened during the past week it's almost to hard to put it all in one post and yet have it be cohesive, but trust me this weeks events are all tied together one way or another.

Probably the biggest headlines come from the king of Spain telling Chavez to "shut up". While not exactly diplomatic in all honestly Chavez had it coming, for years Venezuelans have been forced to watch and listen his variety show which often involves it turing into a tirade against imperialism, etc, etc... In the past year or so, as Chavez has turned his attention to the international scene the rest of the world has now been subjected to his caudillo militaristic style of diplomacy. Most leaders have been slightly amused by Chavez's antics but finally some are starting to get tired of it. After all discussing imperialism, Azner, and other Chavez topics does nothing to build economies or help the poor.

Most outsiders will see this as an isolated spat between leaders, but in actuality I think this is exactly what Dr. Jarrold Post refers to in his psychological profile of Chavez when he says Chavez has a character trait typical of "malignant narcissim" that ultimatly leads Chavez to take "bold actions when felt heady with success; harsh rhetoric confrontational moves and temporary depression when he felt weakened". Most notably we saw Chavez's confrontational mood during his speech in front of the UN after he lost the rotating UN security seat.

It is likely that Chavez'es confrontational manner during the IberoAmerrica summit is a result of his frustration which has been building for the past few months. Chavez saw significant international condemnation after the closure of RCTV, his single political party has not panned out, the church continues to voice it's displeasure and the university students are becoming a bigger thorn in Chavez's side. He is also becoming increasingly frustrated because of inflation and continued protests over insecurity and the lack of food, in short things are becoming uncontrollable. However, it was Baudels announced campaign against the constitutional reforms that probably put Chavez in a sever depression. Readers may recall Chavez canceled his Sunday variety show due to "illness" for the past two weeks. It was also announced that Chavez was not going to attend the meeting in Chile but ended up going at the last minute.

With Baudel campaigning against the constitutional reforms, the political party Podemos also voicing it's displeasure, along with student protests that are becoming more numerous and violent, due to government backers, Chavez is facing significant domestic opposition. Of course the government resorts to its old strategy of calling them coup plotters, traitors, and agents of the CIA.

There are other more subtle signs that the Chavez government is showing signs of trouble. Their campaign rallies are rather lackluster and they have run out of sweet goodies that "help the poor" to win votes. Even those constitutional reforms that are meant to attract voters are not winning people over.

My favorite example of how unimaginative and what trouble the Chavez camp is in is the former VP (Jose Vicente Rangel) saying that the "Yes" to the reforms has 52% favorability based on a recent poll by, what... what... here it comes... North American Opinion Research (NAOR). YES!!! the same "fake" polling agency the government has been resorting to for a few years now. Readers will hopefully remember this is the same polling agency whose owners own the oil cooperative Petrotulsa and a lawfirm. Its owners have extensive ties to the government and other potentially unsavory individuals. You can read more about NAOR by searching on Vcrisis.com or my blog.

Clearly Venezuelans are in for a turbulent month since Chavez wants his reforms, but at what cost will he achieve them. It will be interesting to see if the reforms gets postponed past the December 2nd date. I think there might be a good probability this will happen if the government see the votes are not their. Of course postponing the reforms would be a big blow to Chavez.

Playing catch up on the news - Baudel in the news

2007-11-08T21:41:00.000-06:00

So I'm back from the conference and I'm playing catch up on the news. The highlight seems to be the declarations made by former defense minister Baudel. If I remember correctly Baudel did at one time say that if Chavez can be president so can he, interesting statement especially in the context of this weeks statement.

Think what you will of Baudel, and believe me I am no fan, but back in 2002 he did restore constitutional order after the interim government led by Carmon usurped the constitution. Granted the Chavez has violated the constitution countless times and the military has not acted, but then again those violations do not involve the military hence there was likely no constitutional justification for the military to intervene. In short the military has abided by the constitution and maintained its separation from politics.

The constitutional reform is a whole different beast since it redefines all aspects of Venezuela including the military ( Alex has commented on this). This is maybe why Baudel came out this week against it, in addition to his desire to be president which will fade quickly if Chavez gets his reform. The political void left by the opposition and the apparent lack of support for the constitutional reform defiantly play in Baudel's favor.

As much as I dislike saying it, of all the people to challenge Chavez, Buadel may have the best probably of succeeding. The big question and concern is, if successful, will Baudel unite the country and rebuild its democratic institutions, or will it simply change form one autocrat to another.

Gone for a few days

2007-11-03T14:14:00.000-05:00

I have been rather busy the past few weeks with work, presenting a talk, and putting together a poster. Currently I am in sunny San Diego at a conference for a few days so I'm not sure how much free time I will have. Hope to be back blogging soon.

New Money, New Record

2007-10-24T23:13:00.000-05:00

Today the Venezuelan government released the new currency to be used starting next year "Bolivar Fuerte" or Strong Bolivar versus the currently used (weak?) Bolivar. With the introduction of the new currency it was only fitting for the old and current Bolivar to hit a new low on the black market exchange of $6000 Bs. per $1 US or $6 Bolivar Fuerte per $1 US.

In January this year the black market exchange was around $3,800 per $1 US, in other words the Bolivar has lost ~63% of its value in 10 months. Now I'm not totally opposed to the removal of zeros from the currency since for years people have unofficially been removing them. For example if you go to a store and the item costs $1000 they will often just say one bolivar. What is wrong is that the government is advertising the "new Bolivar Fuerte" as more stable when in fact the only thing that will have changed is the number of zeros and the pictures. Whether the Bs per US $ goes from 3,800 to $6,000 or 3.8 to 6 the currency still loses 63% of it's value, so in reality nothing changes, but then again the revolution is all about smoke and mirrors.

Below is a picture of the new currency, personally I find it ok, although a bit gaudy for my taste. The only thing I find strange is that the images of people are vertical not horizontal. BTW, is it me or do Simon Bolivar and Rodriguez look a bit weird, they seem to have big ears. They are European! so I guess it is only befitting to provide a new European look with the modified article 100 of the constitution. (Article 100 is the previous post.)

Constitutional reform - Article 100

2007-10-21T22:31:00.000-05:00

Below you will find article 100 from Chavez’s “perfect constitution” followed by the new modified article and my comments. I apologize in advance for the bad translation.

*Note modifications are underlined

Article 100
The folk cultures comprising the national identity of Venezuela enjoy special attention, with recognition of and respect for intercultural relations under the principle of equality of cultures. Incentives and inducements shall be provided for by law for persons, institutions and communities which promote, support, develop or finance cultural plans, programs and activities within the country and Venezuelan culture abroad. The State guarantees cultural workers inclusion in the Social security system to provide them with a dignified life, recognizing the idiosyncrasies of cultural work, in accordance with law.

Modified Article 100

The Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela is a product of the mixing of various cultures; consequently the State recognizes and values the diversity of its Indian, European, and African roots that has created our great South American nation. The popular cultures, of Indian and African decent constituting the Venezuelan identity, enjoy special attention by recognizing and respecting its intercultural nature under the principle of cultural equality. Incentives and inducements shall be provided for by law for persons, institutions and communities which promote, support, develop or finance cultural plans, programs and activities within the country and Venezuelan culture abroad. The State guarantees cultural workers inclusion in the Social security system to provide them with a dignified life, recognizing the idiosyncrasies of cultural work, in accordance with law.

Comments on the modification

After reading the modified article it appears the changes are rather benign and minor. The major change has been defining the cultural heritage of Venezuela and what the “popular cultures” are. After a more careful read of the modification, one realizes that chavismo is defining what it is to be Venezuelan in a very narrow sense by inserting this statement: “The popular cultures, of Indigenous and African decent constituting the Venezuelan identity…”, this ultimately constitutes cultural and racial discrimination.

The most obvious problems with this modification is that Venezuelans are a mix of European, African, and Indigenous blood and culture. So how should Venezuelans define themselves, African? European? Indigenous? How should they/we divide and quantify the contribution of each culture when ours is a mixture of each one? To exemplify the stupidity of the modification one only has to highlight one of Venezuela’s most famous cultural traditions the Diablos de Yare. Traditions such as this were created through the mixing of Indigenous, African, and European cultures. To diminish European influence in creating Venezuelan culture and identity is cultural discrimination in its crudest form.

Chavismo’s discrimination towards European heritage is not something new. One of the most public acts was the destruction of a statue of Christopher Columbus on Columbus Day (“Dia de la Raza” in Venezuela) and the renaming of the day to “Indigenous day of resistance”. This act alone is symbolic of the dislike Chavismo has for European historical cultural heritage in Venezuela. This seems hypocritical since Venezuelan identity has been formed by these historical events, however horrifying some of them were. But rather than embrace, understand, and provide a context in which Venezuelan identity has been created, Chavismo has resorted to favoring one particular culture and interpretation of history to teach future generations what being a Venezuelan is, and is not.

The modified article is currently written in a way that suggests State support for cultural activities pertaining to the influence of European tradition in Venezuela will not be awarded. However, activities that promote the “popular cultures” (i.e. African and Indian) will be State supported. Again Chavez is discriminating against European culture by potentially not funding activities that uphold European influences in developing Venezuelan identity. Additionally, the new modification could be interpreted as allowing for State funding for autochthonous religious/cultural activities resulting in State sponsored religion. If the government were inclined to do so they could attempt to displace Catholicism/Christianity (European religion) with something more"popular".

In a broader sense the modification is discriminatory to other cultures since it does not mention Asian and Middle Eastern influence, which has recently been influencing Venezuelan culture and history. The exclusion of these two geographic regions and its peoples from the modified article poses an interesting question. Why is Chavez limiting “popular cultures” to just Indigenous (Native Americans) and African roots? Native Americans were here before Africans and Europeans so why not define “popular culture” as just Indigenous activities? Essentially Chavez is defining what it is to be Venezuelan in a very narrow sense, by excluding recent cultural influences (ex. Asia, Middle East) and ignoring the historical European influences.

In short the modification to article 100 constitutes nothing short of cultural discrimination with the possible ulterior intention of rewriting history.

Article 100 – Spanish

Las culturas populares constitutivas de la venezolanidad gozan de atención especial, reconociéndose y respetándose la interculturalidad bajo el principio de igualdad de las culturas. La ley establecerá incentivos y estímulos para las personas, instituciones y comunidades que promuevan, apoyen, desarrollen o financien planes, programas y actividades culturales en el país, así como la cultura venezolana en el exterior. El Estado garantizará a los trabajadores y trabajadoras culturales su incorporación al sistema de seguridad social que les permita una vida digna, reconociendo las particularidades del quehacer cultural, de conformidad con la ley.

Modified Article 100 - Spanish

La Republica Bolivariana de Venezuela es el producto histórico de la confluencia de varias culturas, por ello el Estado reconoce la diversidad de sus expresiones y valora las raíces indígenas, europeas y afrodescendientes que dieron origen a nuestra Gran Nación Suramericana. Las culturas populares, la de los pueblos indígenas y de los afrodescendientes, constitutivas de la venezolanidad, gozan de atención especial, reconociéndose y respetándose la interculturalidad bajo el principio de igualdad de las culturas. La ley establecerá incentivos y estímulos para las personas, instituciones y comunidades que promuevan, apoyen, desarrollen o financien planes, programas y actividades culturales en el país, así como la cultura venezolana en el exterior. El Estado garantizará a los trabajadores y trabajadoras culturales su incorporación al sistema de seguridad social que les permita una vida digna, reconociendo las particularidades del que hacer cultural, de conformidad con la ley.

Constitutional reform

2007-10-18T21:49:00.000-05:00

Sorry about not posting, I have been preparing for a meeting I am presenting at in a couple of weeks and a presentaion I have to give at work in a week.

I have added a new link, on the right, that takes you to a new blog dedicated to the constitutional reforms proposed. Many bloggers, including myself, are contributing to it so read up and enjoy!

Expect something on Monday :)

Political persecution revisited

2007-10-09T20:39:00.000-05:00

Followers of Venezuelan politics and news will remember the turmoil of 2002-2003, in particular the signature petition process to invoke the recall referendum on Chavez. There were three signature processes, in every case the national electoral council (CNE) tired to prevent the process from taking place.

First the CNE invalidated the original signature collection since it wasn't coordinated by the CNE. This was followed by the CNE making the their petition process cumbersome and full of obstacles. After the opposition collected enough signatures the referendum, the CNE decided to invalidate just enough signatures to prevent the process from going forward. Viewing how blatantly the CNE was cheating the process they were pressured by international observers and the opposition to hold a third signature process for the "questionable" signers. Of course ever more obstacles were put in place such as the government threats, making signers travel long distances, etc... However, in the end the referendum was held, but its consequences are still felt to this day by the petition signers.

At the request of Chavez and the Vice-president (Jose Vicente Rangel) the name of the petition signers had their names turned over to the Chavez government, in which they promptly compiled and created the now infamous Maisanta database. To state to obvious the list has subsequently been used to purge non-Chvez supporters from government jobs, canceling and preventing private individuals from doing business with government companies, denying government loans, among a host of other abuses, simply for signing against Chavez.

This now brings me to my point, that after 5 years the government abuses are still being felt and its impact is only now beginning to be studied. I would like to thank Greg Weeks via his blog Two Weeks Notice for posting the article.

In short the paper looks at the economic price the political opposition had to pay for signing against Chavez. In which they make the following conclusions:

There is extensive churning in the labor market: pro-opposition individuals disproportionately leave public sector employment and progovernment individuals leave private sector employment. Pro-opposition firms have falling total employment, less access to foreign exchange, and rising tax burdens (possibly due to selective audits).

Random Venezuelan news

2007-10-02T21:15:00.002-05:00

Below are some stories from the past couple of weeks that I thought were worth noting:

Wolf, Wolf!!!
pro-Chavez groups, in this case the Bolivarian Federation of Students have announced that the political opposition to Chavez is planning violence and civil disturbances ahead of the constitutional reforms. They are accusing opposition groups of planning to build home-made bombs, hijacking university buses, closing streets, and protesting on the streets. But of course the protests are only possible due to CIA backing.

Diplomatic warming? don't worry it's still pretty cold
According to the Associated Press, Washington and Caracas are discussing a possible high level discussion between Thomas Shannon, top U.S. diplomat for the Americas, and Chavez. It seems that the talks will center on Chavez mediating a peace (an unlikely one) between the FARC and the Colombian govt.

However, the Secretary of Defense, Robert Gates, today stated that Chavez is a threat to Venezuelan liberty and economic well being. Personally I agree but this of course won't go well down well in Caracas .

Also today, Venezuelan foreign minister, Nicolas Maduro, spoke at the United Nations naturally making accusation against the United States about the Iraq invasion, its hostility towards Iran, harboring Luis Posada Carriles, blah, blah blah....

Integration a la Chavez
So September came and went and Chavez has now put a year end limit for Brazil and Paraguay to approve Venezuela's full membership into Mercosur. The Brazilian opposition party seems to want to take its time and prolong this as much as possible, while Lula asks for its passage since it is aggravating relations with Chavez. Of course Chavez comes out claiming that Venezuela's failure to enter Mercosur is a victory for the empire (aka the United States) and that Venezuela left the Andean Community to join Mercosur and has made large purchases from Brazil, so Brazil now owes it to Venezuela to approve its entry.

The unenlightened Chavez
Ok, so this could mean a lot of things, however, here I'm referring to Chavez's lack of public statement on the repressive and barbaric actions of the Myanmar dictatorship against Buddhist monks and other citizens. Interestingly the Venezuelan and Myanmar governments held talks in July to increase economic development between the two countries.

Should one expect Chavez's condemnation of the Myanmar dictatorship? Probably not, remember Chavez called Zimbabwe a model democracy, has praised Lukoshenko, and is Castro's best friend. Perhaps they will all continue their friendship in Naraka.

Other stuff
So Daniel, among others, have been busy translating and discussing the Constitutional reforms proposed to the "perfect" constitution of 2000... wait I thought it was perfect?

Meanwhile protests have continued on the Colombian and Venezuela boarder due to tolls being collected by Colombia to cross the bridges. Colombia's argument is that they are necessary for bridge and road maintenance.

Protests also continue among Venezuelan oil workers due to labor disputes and pay.

BTW, my apologies for not writing but work has been busy and I have felt rather uninspired to write anything. In part so much goes on in Venezuela that one becomes overwhelmed as to what to write about. But at the end of the day you wonder if it is even worth writing since it is the same government abuses, ignorance, and corruption as the day before, just a different story.

Venezuelan Forecast

2007-09-23T20:05:00.000-05:00

Sep 21st 2007
From the Economist Intelligence Unit
Source: Country Forecast

Having won a strong mandate in 2006, the president, Hugo Chavez, has launched his third term with a drive to deepen “21st-century socialism”. Complete control of the legislature and significant influence over weak and politicised institutions should facilitate this agenda, but obstacles remain, including the gradual decline of fiscal revenue, which, combined with a downturn in private investment, will produce an economic slowdown. This will help to reduce inflation to below 20% in 2008-09, notwithstanding a forecast devaluation of the fixed official exchange rate in 2009 as the bolivar becomes increasingly overvalued. For now, still-strong public finances and external accounts should allow the authorities to avoid a devaluation in 2008, despite a parallel market premium of over 100%. As the forecast period progresses, the current-account surplus will narrow; both import and export growth will slow, but export growth will slow faster.

Political outlook
The proposed constitutional reform has been made public. Assuming it is approved quickly by the National Assembly, it must then be passed by popular referendum on December 9th 2007. Apart from a move to eliminate presidential term limits, the most controversial elements are a weakening of private property rights, the politicisation of the military and the introduction of new types of local government. Opinion polls suggest indefinite presidential re-election is unpopular, but other elements of the reform, such as a reduction of the working day to six hours, could help secure the approval of the entire package.

Economic policy outlook
In light of recent government statements, the Economist Intelligence Unit has revised its exchange rate forecast and do not now expect a devaluation of the official rate in 2008, despite a parallel market premium of over 100%, on the assumption that high oil prices will prevent fiscal or balance-of-payments pressures.

Economic forecast
A revision to our exchange-rate forecast for 2008 has prompted a slight downward revision to our forecasts for inflation and the current-account.

Negotiations with the FARC

2007-09-18T15:56:00.001-05:00

During the past couple of weeks Alvaro Uribe and Chavez have been engaged in trying to release hostages from the FARC. Meanwhile, French president Nicolas Sarkozy is also getting involved in an attempt to release Ingrid Betancourt a dual national of French and Colombian citizenship.

An interesting fact is that Uribe released Rodrigo Granda, a senior member of the FARC, apparently at the request of Sarkozy. You may remember that Granda was caught living in Venezuela by paid Venezuelan agents.

It seems that Uribe is putting himself in a precarious position in dealing with the FARC, considering the failed attempts in the past and Uribes strong stance during his presidency. For Chavez this may give him a marginal success story in a foreign policy campaign that has seen many setbacks during the past few years.

Thus far Chavez has released a group of Colombian nationals being held since 2004 accused on trumped up charges that they were planning on killing Chavez. In addition Chavez said he was willing to resolve a territorial dispute over the oil rich Gulf of Venezuela. This dispute almost led to a war between the two countries in 1987.

According to The Economist negotiations are likely to be difficult and not likely to result in any winners:

But the problem for Mr Chávez—and this might be Mr Uribe's calculation—could be that in the end the FARC may reckon that it has more to lose than gain by a deal. “The hostages are the only thing the FARC have that gets them heard internationally and gives them any importance domestically,” says Gerson Arias of Ideas para la Paz, a think-tank in Bogotá. Whatever the outcome, all three parties in the coming negotiations face risks, some of which may be unexpected.

The FARC I can't imagine giving up hostages since it is their only barganing chip, for Chavez this would be another set back and a source of frustration since both have expressed sympathy for each other. In addition, Chavez might be seen as incapable of even persuading sympathizers of his revolution. In the end it will be interesting to see how negotiations play out.

Venezuela: Two competing health care systems

2007-09-09T21:52:00.000-05:00

Below is an article that was published in the medial journal "The Lancet". Readers will remember a few months ago another article in The Lancet looked at how some Cuban doctors sent to Venezuela have defected to the United States (and Colombia) to escape the terrible conditions of Cuba and Venezuela.

In Venezuela, two public-health systems grow apart

Daniel Cancel   President Hugo Chavez's popular social missions have brought free primary health care directly to low-income communities in Venezuela. But critics say that these new health services have grown at the expense of the country's existing hospitals. Daniel Cancel reports from Caracas.

In the southwest corner of Caracas, the 54-year-old Coche public hospital has only one radiograph machine working; the second was recently disabled after rats chewed through the electrical wires. Just 5 km away in the neighbourhood of El Valle, brand new health clinics have been opened as part of President Hugo Chavez's social mission, with state of the art equipment funded by the government. Both treat patients free of charge, but the differences are stark.

This contrast illustrates perfectly the reality of the current state of the country's public-health system. Instead of re-equipping and improving existing hospitals, the government has poured millions of dollars into creating a parallel social health-care system, which still is not growing fast enough to meet people's needs.

In the 1999 constitution of Venezuela, article 83 guarantees the right of all citizens to access free health care and receive adequate treatment. This policy forms part of the socialist agenda by Chavez, the controversial former paratrooper turned revolutionary leader. His focus on the poor was largely seen as a giant step forward in settling part of the social debt accumulated after years of abandonment and inefficiency in the public-health system. 8 years on from that bold initiative, citizens are still receiving free care. But now, as a result of the fragmented Venezuelan health-care system, poor management, constant changes in administration, and periodic shortages of supplies, the quality is not what many had anticipated.

Maria Elena Rodriguez, a health research coordinator with the Caracas-based human rights watch group Provea, says of the government's health reforms “I think a lot of measures in the past 5 years have been admirable but they have been followed by plenty of management and implementation failures as well as a lack of transparency in spending”.

The major advances under Chavez's government in health revolve around the social development programmes known as missions. These programmes are funded principally by the state oil company Petroleos de Venezuela, which, by riding the wave of an oil boom, has fuelled the government's political projects and kept the economy afloat.

The mission Barrio Adentro (inside the neighbourhood), the banner social programme of the Chavez government in 2003, has brought primary health care directly to the poorest Venezuelans. The programme has been tremendously popular with citizens who are unable to pay private health insurance and has boosted the president's ratings. The patients are attended to in their own neighbourhoods by Cuban doctors, who are on loan in exchange for oil shipments. The mission began with just 54 Cuban doctors in 2003 and has expanded throughout the country. According to figures from the health ministry, some 26 819 doctors are now practising in Venezuela.

The original Barrio Adentro I programme was initially characterised by two-storey, octagonal brick clinics located in poor urban areas which serve both as offices and residences for doctors. That model has been giving way to well equipped clinics capable of providing advanced health care to Venezuelans. The second phase of the programme, Barrio Adentro II, was inaugurated in 2005 with the opening of 30 diagnostic centres, 30 rehabilitation centres, and several high technology centres. The high-tech centres provide nuclear magnetic resonance tests, three dimensional ultrasound, mammography, video endoscopy, and electrocardiography, among other services.

The original goal to build 1235 new clinics during 2006 was not achieved, although 175 diagnostic, 183 rehabilitation, and six high-tech centres were opened last year according to the health ministry.

With this programme, the public- health system in Venezuela has diversified greatly. It has reached low-income communities with the intention of relieving the old, overcrowded hospitals. Critics, however, say Barrio Adentro has grown at the expense of the former health-care system and has yet to lessen the number of patients in traditional institutions.

The attention the government gives to Barrio Adentro has also been an issue with Venezuelan public-health workers, who complain of low wages, shortages of basic supplies, and poor working conditions. Many see the social projects as getting preferential treatment while hospitals are left to fend for themselves.

Olga Machado de Castillo, a member of the board of directors and secretary of labour relations in the Venezuelan Medical Federation, a staunch opposition group to Chavez, believes the neglected public hospitals have worsened under the current government. The presence of Cuban doctors in the country, she says, forms part of an active discrimination campaign against Venezuelan health professionals. She calls the arrival of Cuban doctors “an invasion”.

“One of the problems in the country is the presence of supposed Cuban doctors. We have determined through studies that only one in every ten of these doctors is really qualified to be practising in medicine while the others are simple technicians”, said Castillo.

The Federation refuses to acknowledge any advancements or improvements in health under Chavez; it also claims preventable diseases are on the rise, and diseases that had been eradicated in the past have returned once again. The government denies these allegations, saying that reports of tuberculosis and dengue fever outbreaks are media-provoked slander. They also defend Barrio Adentro saying no Venezuelan doctors would do the work of the Cuban medics in impoverished and violent city slums.

But the equipment, personnel, and propaganda that has been used in Chavez's social missions has come at a steep financial cost, and has left the staff of the country's long-established public hospitals asking about their share of the money.

Elisabeth Chacón has been working at the Coche Hospital for 26 years. Trained as a paediatrician, she is now the hospital's director, and is thus very aware of the woes that have beset the hospital. The deteriorating façade and out-of-service lifts convey maintenance problems in the hospital, though the deficit in doctors, nurses, and therapeutic beds highlight a more profound crisis. “The money we receive for 1 year of medicine does not cover our costs for 3 months, and the rest of the year we have to ask for credits and request help from the health ministry”, she said.

The Health Secretariat is in charge of funding, and answers to the needs of 14 hospitals and 87 outpatient clinics in the metropolitan area. Their annual budget equals $248 million but 90% is spent on paying the salaries of doctors, nurses, and other labourers. This leaves little cash for buying supplies, maintaining the infrastructure and ambulances, and buying new equipment.

The government's response to the deteriorated state of the public hospitals has been the creation of the Barrio Adentro III programme. This initiative has been intended to supply the hospitals with the vital equipment and supplies they have lacked for so long, although so far hospitals say they have seen little progress.

Luisana Melo, the newly appointed director of the Health Secretariat, admits that the public health-care system is in “crisis”, but she remains optimistic about the possibility of changes under her mandate. In her opinion, the principal cause for the degradation of the country's health- care system is the years of neglect it faced at the hands of the country's previous “neoliberal” administrations. The policies enacted during these years, as Melo sees it, tried to “weaken the public-health system in order to strengthen the private system”. Melo mentioned the need to audit the number of workers and the deficits in hospitals to better distribute the funds.

Venezuela's hospitals are still popular with the public. Elena Rodriguez says that despite all the government propaganda, many Venezuelans tend to turn to the decade-old hospitals first, even with new clinics around the corner. “As part of the culture or habit people go straight to hospital when they have a minor ache or pain, which contributes to the hospitals being overrun”, she says.

Melo says this habit is because of a pattern she calls “ruleteo” (roulette table), where patients are repeatedly told to go to the next hospital or clinic to be attended to. “Instead of going to Barrio Adentro for a consultation, the people go directly to the hospitals. This is to avoid being sent all over town in case the diagnostic centres are unable to treat their ailment”, she said.

A proposal by the Lord Mayor's Office to organise the different public and private health care elements under one control centre could help to fix the roulette problem, according to Melo. Or it could be another good idea that is not followed through to the end, as critics suggest.

Overall I think this article captures the essential problem with health care in Venezuela. That is Chavez is creating two health systems, one that is "well funded" dominated by clinics in barrios but are only capable of providing the most basic services (i.e. Tylenol, check-ups, and bandages). Meanwhile people prefer to go to hospitals which are underfunded thus can not provide adequate service and are understaffed. The health care system is further deteriorating due to price controls and the Chavez government threatening private clinics.

Ideally the government would not build a parallel hospital system but rather a complementary one. If history is any indication, which it usually is, eventually the clinics of Barrio Adentro will fall into disrepair and neglect and the public hospitals will continue to be under funded and under staffed, leaving the private hospitals to those who can afford them.

In other news: Measles has returned after four years of absence in Venezuela, possibly as a result of the inadequate coverage of vaccination in children and the accumulation of susceptibles in other ages. To read more about this visit Caracas Chronicles. For those interested Miguel has also discussed issues dealing with health care in Venezuela.

Invest. clín, June 2007, vol.48, no.2, p.135-137.

Antonini and the $800,000 suitcase -Update (Part III)

2007-08-30T21:22:00.000-05:00

News surrounding Antonini and the $800,000 in his suitcase has died down somewhat during the past week. The news that has been published often seem contradictory and filled with rumors, and speculation as to the whereabouts of Antonini. So what is the status of this whole fiasco? During the past week the Argentine judge Maria Marta Novatti has solicited the arrest of Antonini Wilson though Interpol. Since then Antonini has been located by the FBI in Florida, apparently still living at is house. He has not been arrested or detained since the Interpol warrant only seeks the localization not arrest, which requires judge Navatti to solicit a preventative arrest (currently being done) for Antonini's eventual extradition to Argentina. This whole process apparently could take a few months.

Something I did not know is that the United States and Argentina only fairly recently, since the end of 1990's, have had an extradition treaty.

The Miami Herald publisheda telephone conversation they had with Antonini's father, although nothing much was revealed.

To read more click here

In other news the Argentinian newspaper published a conversation they had with Waldimir Abad a former associate of Antonini. Abad's explains that his name is on the companies registries because it is something he does as a business, where people like Antonini receive mail in Florida then Abad sends it to Venezuela. Personally I don't buy it, first Antonini lives in Florida, second why does Abad have to be registered (i.e. as president...).

A little fun

Apparently some people have more time and are better at computer programing than me, you can now play an online game based on the Antonini scandal (just don't be caught with the suitcase) called "De Venezuela con amor" - "From Venezuela with love". It truly is funny and ingenious (check it out).

The New York Times is now controlled by Bush

2007-08-23T18:12:00.000-05:00

This is to funny to not post.

Yesterday the New York Time published an editorial (click here to read) that was very direct and to the point regarding Chavez's constitutional reforms.

Today the Venezuelan Minister of (dis)Information, William Lara) accused The New York Times of being an agent of the Bush administration and the State Department:

The New York Times no sólo es el vocero progubernamental de Bush sino también uno de los más macabros medios de desinformación a los que apela el Departamento de Estado para justificar sus crímenes en el mundo entero.

The New York Times in not only a spokesman for Bush but is also one of the most macabre news media outlets of disinformation, which the State Department uses to justify its crimes around the world

Se evidencia en los constantes ataques de The New York Times al gobierno del presidente Chávez, que el Departamento de Estado está moviendo sus fichas para atentar contra la democracia venezolana.

It is evident by the constant attacks by the NYT towards the Chavez government that the State department is moving its pawns in attempting against Venezuelan democracy

A full translation of what Lara said can not do it justice, personally I think he has outdone himself on so many levels. If can read spanish I encourage you to read it (click here). So I won't be accused of disinforming my readers by linking to Unionradio (also controlled by Bush), here is the link to the Venezuelan government "information" web site (click here to read the same article).

So there you have it, we have now been "informed" after all these years that The New York Times is an agent of the Bush administration and the State department.

Note : Because the NYT has a time limit for articles the editorial is linked to Daniels blog (contains the entire article) article publication date Aug 22, 2007.

Venezuela's one China policy

2007-08-22T22:17:00.001-05:00

The past couple months Venezuela and Taiwan have engaged in a diplomatic spat over three different topics. The first started around June when the Venezuelan government informed the Chinese Petroleum Corporation (CPC) that the government would buy back its oil exploration rights since it has less than 10% stake exploration projects. The CPC responded by retaining a lawyer to deal with the dispute with the potential of filling a lawsuit against the Venezuelan government.

The second spat came in mid July when the Venezuelan government canceled the visas for the Taiwanese diplomats present in the country, which was preceded in March when Venezuela made null and voided a 90-day visa exemption favoring Taiwanese tourists. In addition the Venezuelan government stopped renewing the visas for five Taiwanese working at the Economic and Cultural Office of Taipei. This action prompted a Taiwanese Foreign Ministry spokesman to state the following:

As soon as Hugo Chavez came to power, Taiwan has been facing a new, unfriendly environment in Venezuela

The third spat between the Venezuelan government and Taiwan came in August. Sadly the ones caught between this were the teenage Taiwanese baseball players wanting to travel to Venezuela which was hosting the World Junior Baseball Championship. Again, the Venezuelan government felt the desire (claiming Taiwan did not request the visas in time) to not issue the Taiwanese players visas to play in the Championship. Consequently, the International Baseball Federation (IBAF) canceled the 13th youth baseball championship due to the Venezuelan government's actions.

While the buyout of the Taiwanese oil exploration share is nothing really surprising or note worthy, the later two issue centering on visas is a little more disturbing. Clearly, the Chavez government is not interested in maintaining cordial relations with Taiwan. Since Taiwan has close relations with the United States this lends itself as a good geopolitical move in creating Chavez's multi-polar world, compounded with the fact that Taiwan has very little to offer Venezuela. On the other hand this move will probably be used by Venezuela to gain some favor with China, which does have a lot to offer Venezuela in terms of money and investments (e.g. oil, rail). As a side note It would be interesting to know how much pressure China is exerting on Venezuela and other countries to change their policy with Taiwan.

$800,000 and the Antonini connection Part II

2007-08-16T09:35:00.001-05:00

During the past few days we have seen a flurry of press reports, government statements, and all sorts of juicy information all stemming from $800,000 discovered in an undeclared suit case owned by Alejandro Antonini.

To read part I click here

In my last post I discussed a person by the name Wladimir Abad. According to Florida records he owns a $1.84 million dollar home in Mami. In the Florida business registry he is the president of Abad Air, Inc. (for company web site click here).

Also mentioned was Abad business association with Ricardo Fernandez Barruecos who had his $5 million Raytheon Hawker (registry number N7000SA) jet seized by the DEA. Apparently, Abad, Barruecos, and a Arturo Minarro owned a company called American Food Grain (AFG) in the state of Delaware, which purchased the plane on September 6, 2006. AFG appears to have never been a legitimate company and has since been dissolved.

Antonini

We have learned that Antonini took multiple trips to Argentina many lasting less than 24 hours on some of these trips Antonini used a plane owned by Abad (registry number N64SL). He also traveled to Uruguay (paid for by PDVSA) along with the pro-Chavez governor Johnny Yanez of the state of Cojedes to visit Umis S.A. a company that builds prefabricated homes. Meanwhile, Venoco (Venezuelan petrochemical company) claims no relation to Antonini but it has been revealed that in fact he had a Venoco business card stating his position as advisor to the vice-president along with a Venoco email address.

The latest news is that Antonini has a warrant for his arrest in Argentina.

To read more on the connections between Antonini, Abad, and some of the other Venezuelan bankers and businessmen getting rich thanks to Chavez click here

Update - by Kenneth Rijock

The players in the unfolding money laundering scandal involving Venezuelan Businessman Alejandro Antonini cleaned out their Key Biscayne waterfront estate in the middle of the night; the Ferrari, maids, pets, and all the furniture and furnishings are gone with the wind, as is Antonini associate Franklin Duran. I know because yours truly has been there in person, peering into the windows of the empty rooms. And now Antonini is a wanted man.

to read more click here.

$800,000 and the Antonini connection in Florida

2007-08-13T19:29:00.000-05:00

During the past week, news in Venezuela and Argentina have centered on the $800,000 in undeclared cash being carried into Argentina from Venezuela in a suit case by a man named Alejandro (Guido) Antonini. To read some background on the story click here.

Since then we have we learned that Guido Antonini owns a 2004 Ferrari 360 Spider F1 and a Porsche Carrera GT, only 1,270 were built. We have also learned that he lives in Florida and has some involvement with Venoco, a Venezuelan petrochemical company.

The Argentine press and the Miami Herald have been covering to story quite well, uncovering names, addresses, and associations. In the mean time the Venezuelan government has been trying its best to suppress the information, spin it to their advantage, distract the publics attention, and most recently have claimed they are going to conduct an investigation (don't hold your breath) while not claiming any responsibility. In the meantime the Argentinean government is calling for an investigation and an explanation by PDVSA for Antonini and the $800,000, including urging of the removal of Daniel Uzcategui as VP of PDVSA. Their strong stance is likely due to the coming presidential election in Argentina.

According to a source Antonini continues to have ties with Venoco and has recently begun working with Ricardo "Arepita" Fernandez Barrueco. Fernandez is owner of Banco Confederado and is thought to have aquired Banco Bolivar and Banpro after their former owner Eligio Cedeno was put in prison. Fernandez is also said to be a recent major share holder in the Mexican company Gruma, which is now the major corn flour supplier for the Venezuelan government run supermarkets, Mercal. Fernandez business association however doesn't just include banking and corn flour, in 2007 his private plane was seized by the Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA)in Miami, since then he has taken a low profile.

Today Clarin.com published an article, in it they mentioned the company Foxdelta Investments one of Antonini's companies and the name Wladimir Abad. Below is some information I was able to dig up on other companies run by Antonini and information on Wladimir Abad.

Companies listed in Florida where Alejandro (Guido) Antonini holds an executive position:

FOXDELTA INVESTMENTS, INC.
VENUZ SUPPLY, INC.
INTERTEL TELECOM, LLC
TECHMILK, INC.
GLOBAL ADS CORP.

The Miami Herald
has listed all four companies as not having any phone number, nor have I been able to find any record of them on-line.

Addresses used by Antonini in the above registered companies:

727 CRANDON BLVD, SUITE 301
KEY BISCAYNE FL 33149

655 N. MASHTA DR.
KEY BISCAYNE FL 33149

11801 NW 100 ROAD, SUITE 1
MIAMI FL 33178 US

Business associates of Alejandro Antonini listed in the above companies:

REGNAULT, JACQUELINE (Antonini's wife - Jacqueline Maria Regnault Palacios)
WLADIMIR, ABAD or ABAD, WLADIMIR
CARTA, JORGE SR
PEREZ, CARLOS
CARTA, JORGE SR

Curiously, Antonini's wife Jacqueline is president of another company by the name of ANTSAI INVESTMENTS, INC. her business associate is Olga M Saizarbitoria at a different address from above. Both individuals use the address of 1492 S. MIAMI AVE., STE. #203, Miami FL, 33131, which is a different address from those used by Antonini.

Wladimir Abad Mujica

One of Antonini's associates in Foxdelta Investments, Inc. and in Techmilk, Inc. by the name of Abad Wladimir Mujica appears to be an interesting person to. In the Florida Division of Corporations Abad is registered under two version of his name (Wladimir, Abad and Abad, Wladimir). He is registered in 22 different corporations (see images) using the address of 8075 SW 107 Ave Apt. 109, Miami FL, 33173. Like the companies registered with Antonini's, none of these 22 companies appear to have any formal business (based on web search). The 22 companies include 19 different associates with most using Florida addresses, although 5 used addresses in Caracas.

It might be important to note that most of companies were registered in Florida as of 2004 and 2005.

My hiatus and a little something

2007-08-04T16:55:00.000-05:00

My apologies for not posting regularly for the past 3 weeks or so, I have busy writing a research proposal that is due a week from monday to get federal money, so you can imagine the paper work that is required. I am also going out of town and moving within that time to, so not much time to blog. Also things in Venezuela have stopped surprising me, it is simply a new day and a further decent into totalitarianism.

Briefly I would like to mention Chavez's environmental credentials continue to be tainted. After the crazy idea of building a pipeline though the Amazon from Venezuela to Argentina through Brazil, Venezuela is now going help with the exploration of oil in Bolivia's Madid national park.

"Bolivian Energy Minister Carlos Villegas said the investment would materialize in the first half of 2008 and would be channeled through Petroandina, a company formed by the powerful PDVSA and its smaller Bolivian counterpart, YPFB.

He said Petroandina would start exploring for oil next year in Bolivia's Madidi, a vast national park that stretches from the Andes to the Amazon basin and is said to be one of the most biodiverse areas on earth."

Perhaps Sean Penn should look into this he is a "journalist" after-all on a" fact finding mission". Oh wait he is to busy with his spoon feed revolutionary tour directed by Chavez himself. Obviously money can't buy intelligence.

Obama's first mistake on dealing with Chavez?

2007-07-24T21:17:00.000-05:00

Last year we were all caught up with Venezuela's presidential campaign now it is the U.S. turn. As a result I will try to highlight how the US candidates both Democrats and Republicans will approach Latin America if they were president. Last night were the CNN/YouTube debates and we may have seen the first difference between the two leading Democratic candidates, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. One of the questions proposed to the candidates was:

“Would you be willing to meet separately during the first year of your administration, with leaders of Syria, Iran, Venezuela and others to bridge the gap between our countries?”

B. Obama response:

I would. And the reason is this, that the notion that somehow not talking to countries is punishment to them -- which has been the guiding diplomatic principle of this administration -- is ridiculous.

Now, Ronald Reagan and Democratic presidents like JFK constantly spoke to Soviet Union at a time when Ronald Reagan called them an evil empire. And the reason is because they understood that we may not trust them and they may pose an extraordinary danger to this country, but we had the obligation to find areas where we can potentially move forward.

And I think that it is a disgrace that we have not spoken to them. We've been talking about Iraq -- one of the first things that I would do in terms of moving a diplomatic effort in the region forward is to send a signal that we need to talk to Iran and Syria because they're going to have responsibilities if Iraq collapses.

They have been acting irresponsibly up until this point. But if we tell them that we are not going to be a permanent occupying force, we are in a position to say that they are going to have to carry some weight, in terms of stabilizing the region.

H. Clinton response:

Well, I will not promise to meet with the leaders of these countries during my first year. I will promise a very vigorous diplomatic effort because I think it is not that you promise a meeting at that high a level before you know what the intentions are.

I don't want to be used for propaganda purposes. I don't want to make a situation even worse. But I certainly agree that we need to get back to diplomacy, which has been turned into a bad word by this administration.

And I will purse very vigorous diplomacy.

And I will use a lot of high-level presidential envoys to test the waters, to feel the way. But certainly, we're not going to just have our president meet with Fidel Castro and Hugo Chavez and, you know, the president of North Korea, Iran and Syria until we know better what the way forward would be.

Honestly I don't think there is much of a difference between the two candidates, but it is obvious that Clinton answered the question directly and her answer probably will set better with moderate voters than Obama's. In the end it probably won't affect Obama but it is fun to see how the candidates differ, at least in answering questions.

Foreigners to get a taste of Venezuelan "democracy" and other news

2007-07-22T23:42:00.001-05:00

Any foreigner planning to travel to Venezuela must leave their first amendment, right of freedom of speech, behind. Today "Yo el Supremo" (Chavez) said that any foreigner that is in Venezuela and criticizes him or his government will be expelled from Venezuela. Apparently this was due to Manuel Espino, president of Mexico's conservative ruling party, having criticized Chavez during a recent pro-democracy forum in Caracas.

Meanwhile, Chavez is still planning on a constitutional reform allowing for his indefinite reelection. Since Venezuela is the "most democratic country in the world" the new reform will only permit Chavez to be elected indefinitely, all other public servants (ie. national assemblymen, governors, mayors) will have term limits.

Chavez announced that top public servants should not be earning $7,000 a month (min. wage is ~$250/mo). Don't worry I'm sure they will make up the difference caused by any pay cut.

PDVSA.... wow where to begin.... last week we learned they PDVSA is expending into making shoes, ships, growing beans, etc... all while production is down, the rojo rojito employees are talking of going on strike while making claims of corruption within PDVSA. With falling production in Venezuela, the United States is going to have to rely more on Russia, Africa, and Russia.

"The best Mexico and Venezuela can hope for right now is to keep their production flat, but the more likely scenario is that we will see a decline," said Fadel Gheit, an analyst with Oppenheimer and Co. "Someone has to fill that gap, whether it is Russia, the Middle East or West Africa."

RCTV is now back on the air, the only thing is you have to own cable, which most Venezuelans do not. Of course the government, not realizing what they had done, are now trying to force RCTV to broadcast all government "Cadenas". Of course this probably won't happen, but I'm sure the government will create some new law to force RCTV off the air again, such is Venezuelan democracy under Chavez.

Students in Venezuela continue their peaceful protests against the increasingly authoritarian behavior of Chavez. My question is do the students plan on trying to connect with the rest of the population, if so how? or do they plan on keeping their movement centered on their demands?

There has been a lot of other news this past week including the now ex-minister of defense Raul Baudel criticizing theChavez administration. Personally, it seems a little fishy to see someone so blatantly criticizing the Chavez administration so publically, is he warning Chavez or is this a plan to give the impression of dissent?

Iranian - Venezuelan alliance bears fruit

2007-07-15T22:52:00.001-05:00

Last week it was announced that the first 300 vehicles assembled in Venezuela by Venirauto will ready to hand out. My understanding is that these cars are to be given (subsidized) to government employees. Curiously, not only are the cars subsidized but also the gasoline, although "mission gasolina" is for anyone with a car, the cars are also tax exempt (IVA). Eventually, these cars will be sold to the general public but first they have to use them for PR to show how Chavez made this all possible by giving them away to soldiers. Rather than discussing these trivial aspects I would rather point out this government funded program will likely fail similar to those that were created under Carlos Andres Perez in the 1970's.

Venirauto was set up with Venezuelan and Iranian capital and the assembly plant inaugurated in November of 2006, with it's location in Maracay.

The two models available for purchase are the Trupial and two version of the Centauro.

Venirauto
- Trupial for Bs. 17 million ($7,906) based on the Kia pride
- Centauro for Bs. 23 million (11,069) based on a Peugeot 405

Click here to see the photo gallery

General Moters
- Spark for Bs. 18.6 million ($8,600)
- Aveo for Bs. 21 million ($9,760) *There is a cheaper model

Ford
- Ka for Bs. 18.8 million ($8,700)
- Fiesta for Bs. 21 million ($9,760)

I couldn't find prices for Kia and Daewoo although I'm sure they comparably priced if not cheaper vehicles.

Although the Venezuela-Iranian cars are somewhat cheaper the options for the Ford and GM vehicles appear to be better. As for quality I can't speak first hand but I would assume that Venirauto cars are not of the same quality and will probably require going into the mechanic more often especially when driving on Venezuelan roads.

We should at least give credit to the Chavez government for not failing as miserably as FANATRACTO did in 1980. FANATRACTO was created by Carlos Andres Perez in 1978 as a tractor assembly plant but closed its doors after two years without having produced a single tractor.

The government hopes to produce around 25,000 cars by 2010 (this would be ~6% of the 426,000 cars to be sold in 2007). Currently, the government may find it easy to sell their cars since the demand is so high and people are willing to buy almost anything they can get immediately. However, with time the government will probably find it difficult to sell it cars, one because consumer spending and economic growth will start slowing and two the Venirauto cars will probably not be able to compete in quality or price. If the government is able to make good quality cars, can learn to market them, and take the time and make the investment to create a well run efficient company it could be successful. Since history has a tendency to repeat itself, and loyalty is more important than knowledge and hard work in the Chavez government the assembly plant in the long run will probably fail just like FANTRACTO.

Venezuela Forecast

2007-07-08T22:13:00.001-05:00

I hope everyone had a nice 4th or 5th, or both of July. There hasn't been anything to interesting to write about in regards to Venezuela, but that is just as good since it was a holiday weekend.

Below is an updated forecast for Venezuela by The Economist. They continue to predict a devaluation of the Bolivar, I should say "Bolivar fuerte" (the government is changing the name), from the current $2,147 per US$ to 2,700 per $US (25% devaluation) in the beginning of 2008. Also GDP growth is predicted to decrease from 5.2% to 2.8% in 2008 and remain around 3% until 2011.

Forecast

Having won a strong mandate in 2006, the president, Hugo Chavez, has launched his third term with a drive to deepen “21st century socialism”. Complete control of the legislature and significant influence over weak and politicised institutions should facilitate this agenda, but obstacles remain, including the gradual decline of fiscal oil revenue, which, combined with a downturn in private investment, will produce an economic slowdown. The fall in fiscal revenue will raise pressure for devaluation, which we expect in early 2008. Inflation is rising as a result of expansionary fiscal policy and exchange controls. Some relief will come by the end of the forecast period as domestic demand growth slows. Although this will slow import growth, the current-account surplus will narrow as oil export earnings fall.

Key changes from last update

Political outlook
The closure of Venezuela’s most popular television station in May 2007 created a level of public protest that appears to have caught the government by surprise. It will now be concerned about the chances for passage of constitutional reform, which is likely to contain controversial items, such as an end to presidential term limits and a redefinition of strategic sectors reserved for control by the state. A referendum on the reforms remains likely in 2008.

Economic policy outlook
Central government expenditure growth slowed in the first quarter in response to a drop in oil revenue, but the public finances deteriorated nevertheless. Oil revenue will probably recover in line with prices in the rest of the year, but a sharp cut in VAT in an unsuccessful attempt to contain inflation will hit the public finances hard. We continue to project a large fiscal deficit in 2007.

Economic forecast
International reserves have dropped sharply, but as the dollars have flowed to the National Treasury and to the national development fund instead of the Central Bank, public-sector external assets have deteriorated little. We are forecasting a drop in Central Bank reserves in 2007, but the balance of payments position will be better than it appears according to this data. Transparency of the data, however, is a growing problem.

Pew Research Survey - How does Latin America view the United States?

2007-07-02T20:39:00.000-05:00

Last week the Pew Research Center released a 47 nation survey looking at public opinion on America and other world powers. If you would like to read the summary or the full report click here. It defiantly makes for an interesting read.

For the purpose of this blog I have posted information on Latin America but I encourage to those interested to read the full report.

China and Iran

In general, Africans are more positive than Latin Americans about the growing influence of both China and the U.S. on their countries. But in both regions, somewhat greater percentages say China’s influence is a good thing than say that about U.S. influence.

The Pew survey did note that with China's growing influence it's image is decreasing around the world.

Venezuela has the most favorable view of Iran with 33% and 60% unfavorable, Argentina has the lowest with 11% and 53% unfavorable. Although 81% of Venezuelans opposed Iran acquiring nuclear weapons with 12% favoring it (this was the highest among the Latin American countries surveyed), Mexico was second with 11% favoring Iran acquiring nuclear weapons.

Latin American view of Bush and the U.S.

Peru has the most favorable view of the U.S. with 61% favorable vs. 31% unfavorable, second is Venezuela 56% vs. 40%, third is Mexico 56% vs. 41% , fourth is Chile with 55% viewing the U.S. favorably vs. 35% unfavorably. Bush on the other hand is widely unpopular with 87% of Argentineans having little confidence in Bush, followed by Brazil. Curiously, Putin scores worse when asked if they have confidence in him doing what is right. Although, Putin has fewer people saying the have not much/no confidence in him doing what is right.

The Pew survey show that Brazil and Argentina rank within the top 8 countries out of the 47 that dislike American Ideals about democracy and way of doing business. African nations had the highest "like" in these categories.

Venezuela and the U.S

America’s image in Venezuela has eroded considerably. Favorable opinions have declined by nearly 30 percentage points since 2002, though a majority (56%) still has a positive impression of the U.S.

The image of the United States has eroded since 2002 in all six Latin American countries for which trends are available. The decline has been especially steep in Venezuela (26 points), Argentina (18 points), and Bolivia (15 points).

... almost two-thirds [63% vs. 34%] of Venezuelans say American foreign policy does incorporate their concerns.

This was followed by Peru with 53% feeling that the US foreign policy does incorporate their concerns vs. 40% who say it doesn't. Most countries saw a sharp decline in the support for the U.S. led war on terror Venezuela saw a drop from 79% to 45% support.

Venezuela had the greatest decline in their support for American ideas about democracy, declining from 67% in 2002 to 40% in 2007.

International view of Chavez
There is little evidence that discontent with the major nations of the world and their leaders is resulting in greater confidence in those who have challenged the global status quo. Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez inspires little public confidence, even in Latin America, and huge majorities in most countries also say they have little or no confidence in Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to do the right thing regarding world affairs.

While Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez is not nearly as visible on the world stage as Bush and Putin, he is widely recognized – and widely mistrusted – throughout Latin America. While most respondents in Venezuela (54%) express at least some confidence in Chavez to do the right thing in world affairs, 45% say they have little or no confidence in him. Elsewhere in the region, views of Chavez are far more negative. In Chile and Brazil, about three-quarters express doubts about Chavez (75% and 74%, respectively), and nearly as many in Peru (70%) say the same. In fact, majorities in both Brazil (56%) and Peru (53%) say they have “no confidence at all” in Chavez to do the right thing regarding world affairs. Smaller majorities in Mexico (66%) and Bolivia (59%) say they have little or no confidence in Chavez, while in Argentina, views on Chavez are mixed: 40% say they have a lot or some confidence in the Venezuelan president, while 43% disagree. Chavez is viewed a bit less negatively, though he is less widely known, in Africa. More than half (53%) of those in the Ivory Coast express confidence in Chavez as a world leader while 45% disagree. And in Mali, the proportion with a positive view of Chavez’s ability to handle foreign affairs (50%) outnumber those who had little or no confidence in him (32%).

In the United States, a 55% majority expresses little (17%) or no confidence (38%) in Chavez’s leadership, while just 18% say they have some or a lot of confidence in him. This is comparable with opinion in other Western nations, though in many countries Chavez is not widely known. Skepticism is greatest in Spain, where 70% say they have little or no trust in Chavez and just 16% have at least some. In Great Britain, by comparison, opinion is less onesided, with 32% expressing little or no confidence in Chavez, 21% a lot or some, and fully 47% unable to say one way or the other.

Conclusion
It goes without saying that the United States is not very popular around the world, however most of this unpopularity seems to be directed towards our elected officials (ie. Bush). But then again the American public have very little confidence/approval of our elected officials too.

Based on this survey it seems that much of the rhetoric about Venezuela being an enemy of the U.S. and the U.S. being an enemy of Venezuela seems to be overblown. Most of the rhetoric is between Washington and Caracas with little effect on the citizens of each country.

I did find curious that the number one concern of Venezuelans was AIDS/Disease but of lowest concern was the gap between rich and poor, also the lowest of the Latin American countries surveyed. Venezuela also had the most positive view of U.S. movies/tv, the second highest view of U.S. science and technology and the greatest percentage with a positive view on the spread of US ideas.

The strangest thing I noticed was how Argentines seemed to have the greatest rejection and disapproval of almost every thing on the survey. Is it that they are culturally narcissistic?

In short it seems the Chavez has been rather unsuccessful in creating a dislike and hatred for the United States, it also appears that most of the increased disapproval is created not due to Chavez but due to U.S. foreign policy.

Chavez psychological profile: a "malignant narcissist" with "insecurity"

2007-06-26T22:30:00.000-05:00

A couple of months ago ABC published an interview with Olga Wornat who investigated the private life of Hugo Chavez. Her investigation revealed what had been claimed for years Chavez is bipolar, takes Prozac, had a turbulant childhood, sleeps very little, etc... Now comes a report by Dr. Jerrold Post from the Political Psychology Program at George Washington University, who conducted a profile of Chavez for the U.S. Air Force. Once again his conclusions are the same as those that Venezuelan psychologists had been concluding since 2002.

Post portrays Chavez as "a masterful political gamesman" who knows that his popularity largely rests on being seen as a strong leader who takes on the United States, the Venezuelan elite and a host of other perceived enemies -- often with public insults that are rarely used by other leaders.

"To keep his followers engaged, he must continue outrageous and inflammatory attacks," Post said.

The opposition has always fallen for his attacks

"The major psychological reward for Chavez derives from being seen as the pugnacious openly defiant champion of the little man, as one of 'us' versus 'them,'" Post said.

In his assessment, one of the character traits that drive Chavez is "malignant narcissism," a term that denotes an extreme sense of self-importance and is usually coupled with extreme sensitivity to criticism.

"The arrogant certainty conveyed in his (Chavez's) public pronouncements is very appealing to his followers. But under this grandiose facade, as is typical with narcissistic personalities, is extreme insecurity,"

Remember when Ramon Martinez belonging to Patria Para Todos (a Chavez party) was in disagreement to forming a single party, which prompted Chavez calling him an imperialist and that he didn't need him. So you see being in disagreement or criticizing "Yo el Supremo" is not accepted in the revolution.

"There are two circumstances when Chavez's messianic personality adversely affects his decision making, with a potential for flawed judgement," Post wrote in his study for the Air Force. "When he has just achieved a major success and when he perceives himself as failing."

That pattern has been consistent throughout his presidential terms -- bold actions when he felt heady with success; harsh rhetoric, confrontational moves and temporary depression when he felt weakened.

His election win caused him nationalize industries. But the UN security seat caused him to go into depression:

But in the wake of one of his worst diplomatic defeats, the failure of a protracted and costly lobbying campaign to win a seat for Venezuela on the United Nations Security Council, Chavez was so despondent that he stayed away from an Ibero-American summit meeting in Uruguay. "My colleagues don't like me," he complained.

Just as Olgo Wornat concluded, Chavez has strong mood swings with high euphoria then enter a deep depression where he will just stay in bed, in this case he didn't go to Uruguay.

Again, a personality profile Venezuelans knew for years but only now are is the US figuring it out.

Cuban Doctors defecting to the United States

2007-06-24T21:08:00.000-05:00

This was published in the journal The Lancet, one of the oldest and most widely read medical journals, while it does not reveal anything terrible new it still makes for an interesting read. While it is unfortunate that Cuban doctors defect to the US when they are providing a valuble servie to the poor in poor countires, it is only natural for them to want to. Who would want to be exploited and imprisoned the way these doctors are by their own government.

Michael Ceaser

Growing numbers of Cuban doctors sent overseas to work are defecting to the USA, following a change in US immigration policy. Critics say the policy is immoral because it takes medical professionals away from some of the world's poorest nations. Michael Ceaser reports.

Andres—a 36-year-old Cuban physician—decided to get out even before he had got fully in. When Cuban medical authorities tapped him for a medical mission in Venezuela, he did not see an opportunity to help the poor of an allied nation, but rather an opportunity to make his way to the USA. “I didn't arrive in Venezuela to work; I arrived and deserted right away”, he said while waiting for his US visa in Bogota, Colombia.

Cuba has sent tens of thousands of medical professionals to serve in poor communities in the developing world. And while doctor and nurse defections have long bedevilled these overseas programmes, they now seem to be accelerating, in part because of a US immigration policy announced last August that makes it easier for these Cuban medical professionals and their families to obtain visas.

The policy offers the Cubans a tempting opportunity. Back home they face a life of poverty under a Communist regime that offers few political rights, whereas in the USA, because of their professional skills, they have a chance to move quickly into a comfortable middle class life.

In addition to undermining Cuba's foreign policy efforts, the visa policy benefits the USA because many foreign-trained physicians go to practise in underserved poor, minority, and rural communities. But critics see the US policy as immoral because it is taking medical professionals from some of the world's poorest nations, where they are needed, to one of the world's wealthiest nations.

Smita Baruah, a specialist in AIDS and health-care systems at the Global Health Council based in Washington, DC, said she supported people's right to migrate. But she also criticised the USA for encouraging medical professionals to leave poor nations. “That's not the way to solve our long-term [doctor] shortage, by taking away doctors from countries that need them more than we do”, Baruah said.

But some disagree with the criticism. “The idea that we're going in to try to lure away Cuban doctors who are trying to administer to poor people in Latin America is cynical and I think is counter productive”, said James McGovern, a Democratic congressman from Massachusetts. “A lot of poor people who did not have health care now have health care. What's wrong with that? Why should we be trying to undermine that programme? We should have a similar programme.”

A large number of the defectors have fled from Venezuela, which has received some 14 000 Cuban medical professionals, more than the rest of the world combined. Currently, dozens have sought refuge in neighbouring Colombia, often living in precarious conditions, while they await permission to enter the USA.

Andres paid a price to get to Colombia. He and his wife had been assigned to the city of Punto Fijo on the northwestern coast of Venezuela, not far from the border. Their escape went smoothly until they reached the frontier, where Venezuelan guards refused to permit them to cross because the visas on their passports were valid only for travel within Venezuela. Only after Andres bribed the agents with nearly all their possessions did the guards let them leave Venezuela. “We gave them all the money we had, cellular phones, watches, and they let us cross”, he said. “We were in Colombia and we had reached freedom. We felt free.”

Andres and his wife were fortunate because not all defecting Cubans get across the border but are, instead, arrested and shipped back home. Once across the border, however, Andres and his wife found themselves stranded in north east Colombia's harsh Guajira desert without contacts or money to continue travel. Eventually, however, they were given a lift by truckers, who carried them to the capital, Bogota.

In Bogota, Andres has lived with two other defectors in an unused storage room provided by a church group. They have also received assistance from the UN High Commission for Refugees. But, as they wait for their US visas, many of the Cubans are fearful because of their uncertain legal status in Colombia, whose government has given few of them refugee status.

Several Cuban defectors interviewed in Bogota said that they fled not only because of oppression in their own nation, but also because of unreasonably poor and demanding work conditions in Venezuela. Andres said that he could not stand the conditions in Venezuela, where he lived in a crowded house with a leaky straw roof which he shared with fifteen other Cuban doctors waiting to be put to work.

Yane, a 29-year-old Cuban nurse, said she had to work in Venezuela with little support. “There were many accidents, many injuries”, said Yane, who worked in a clinic in Falcon State, northwestern Venezuela. The clinic had “a maternity section, observation room, [and] trauma section. There were just two of us, me and a doctor, and sometimes we had to stay there 3 or 4 days at a time without going home.”

The doctors also said that in Venezuela, Cuban minders monitored their movements, prohibiting non-work contact with Venezuelans. When not at work, the Cubans were required to be at home after 6 pm. One couple said that after they pointed out some problems with the programme, officials threatened to send them back to Cuba in retaliation.

The Cubans said that the programme they worked in, called “Inside the Barrio”, was also plagued with mismanagement and inefficiency. Although many clinics were severely understaffed, newly-arrived medics sometimes sat for months waiting for assignment to a post, they said, and often conditions in the clinics were rudimentary lacking even basic medicines.

Still, the Cubans agree that the programme provides a valuable service to many poor Venezuelans. Although some Cuban clinics were under-stocked, most were well supplied, often far better than Venezuelan facilities. Yane said that she once took a young girl with respiratory problems to four hospitals before finally finding one with a working, if old, respirator.

Defectors have also been reported from Bolivia, another country that Cuba has sent physicians to. 41-year-old Amauris Samartino Flores, a doctor and an anti-Castro activist, defected from Cuba in 1998, fleeing first to the US Naval Station on Guantanamo Bay on the southeastern end of the island, then to Bolivia in 2000. There, he worked as a supervisor in natural gas operations.

Samartino said he became politically active after Evo Morales, a socialist and a close ideological ally of both Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez and Cuba's President Fidel Castro, was elected Bolivia's president in 2005 and Cuban doctors began arriving. Samartino said he feared Bolivia was going to be turned into a second Cuba so he began speaking out in the media about the Communist island's human rights violations and helping Cuban medics who wanted to defect.

Cuba's overseas medical programme is more political than humanitarian, Samartino argues, pointing out that Cuba has sent many more medical personnel to oil-rich Venezuela, ruled by a close ally, than to Haiti, the hemisphere's poorest nation, and which is wracked by an AIDS epidemic.

Bolivian police arrested Samartino last December and were preparing to send him back to Cuba, but UN refugee officials took him into their custody and flew him to Bogota.

In an interview in his Bogota hotel, where he was awaiting a flight to a new life in Norway, Samartino said that despite his concerns about the political impact of the Cuban programme, the Cuban doctors and nurses do provide a valuable service to Bolivia, where many work in isolated, impoverished communities.

“The truth is that medics are needed in those places, giving free services and handing out medicines, which is much more than they had before”, he said.

Venezuelan researcher sets WiFI record

2007-06-20T16:11:00.000-05:00

Dr. Ermanno Pietrosemoli from the University of Los Andes in Merida apparently has set the record (more on it here) for the longest WiFi network link with a distance of 237 miles versus the previous record of 193 miles.

to view the PDF presentation of his research click here.

What is most impressive is that this was done using off the shelf hardware and some ingenuity. Such research not only improves the visibility of Venezuelan research but more importantly it has very practical applications of improving communications between rural areas and the rest of the world.

To read more on WiFi click here.

Transportation

2007-06-18T22:18:00.000-05:00

Nothing to news worthy to report except student protests continue, supermarkets are more empty than ever with people waiting 6 hours or more at the government supermarkets to buy food, and some items are rationed (ie. sugar, oil, chicken, etc..). Even supermarkets in the rich areas of Caracas are suffering from food shortages.

The government continues set up state owned industries, the newest one is public transportation to address the public transportation issues that plague Caracas. However, representatives of the public transportation sector are voicing their displeasure with the move worried that foreigners will be given the jobs, prevent collective bargaining against the govt., and it may depress bus fares. The irony is that over the past 9 years the public transportation sector has supported the government, now many seem ready to go on strike. But how does the Minister of Interior and Justice respond to the threat. He accuses the representatives of the transportation sector for being manipulated and making declarations on "coup plotting media outlets".

If many in the public sector do go on strike this would indeed be the second major blow against Chavez in less then one month.

The Chavez happy meal and university autonomy

2007-06-12T22:21:00.001-05:00

Sixteen days ago after the government closed RCTV, from public broadcasting, the student protests against the measure continue. While it was the RCTV closure that sparked the protests it has now evolved into civil liberties and currently university autonomy against government intervention.

Of all that has been written about the student protests there are three articles that I highly recommend.

The first one is by Michael Shifter from the Inter-American Dialogue, the second by Phil Gunson in the Miami Herald, and finally Daniels post titled The week the Bolivarian Revolution died.

Since student protests started they have evolved from RCTV and freedom of speech, to civil rights and against political polarization, to now centering on the topic of education and university autonomy. For many years Chavez has been making small moves in controlling the education system in Venezuela, from creating Bolivarian schools, threatening private schools, promising advanced degrees in less than half the time it would normally take, to the most recent announcement of removing university entrance exams. Eventually, Venezuela will end up with an ideologically indoctrinated ignorant population.

To put the future of Venezuelan education in a better perspective one should remember that Chavez's brother is the Minister of Education, the former ambassador to Cuba and confessed Marxist.

Yesterday, we learned that some mothers in the poor neighborhood of Caricuao (in Caracas) are protesting because the Bolivarian school lunches are served in a propaganda filled pro-Chavez lunch box with their food wrapped the slogan "Con Chavez un solo gobierno" or "With Chavez just one government".

Even if the university protests disappear in the next weeks I am convinced they will quickly return, since Chavez seems intent on controlling the education system. The big question is how will this battle play out? based on the fast two weeks the university students seem to have the upper hand in public support and have sown some very important seeds for the future.

Student led movement in Venezuela

2007-06-07T22:36:00.000-05:00

It has been 11 days since the student protests started against the closure of RCTV and it doesn't look like the protests are going to end soon. Instead the student movement seem to only get more organized and have now become a legitimate force against the Chavez government. Their legitimacy, peaceful nature, maturity were clearly shown today when they presented themselves at the National Assembly (AN) see previous post. Curiously (and I'm still baffled by this), it was the government itself that legitimized and empowered the student movement today. Of course the government and their supporters showed their true colors making accusation against the students, threats, and attempted physical harm against them as they left the AN.

Probably the most entertaining thing about the last 11 days is how the Chavez government has not figured out how to deal with the students. First they repress and ignore them, then they hold a counter demonstration (show of force) and hope with time the students will get tired and go home, then they act nice and invite them to the AN to give a speech, now they are trying to discredit them. But you see the Chavez playbook while it played very well and easily with the old guard political opposition, the student movement have thrown the government a curve ball. Will Chavez grow tired of them and increase their repression, will the government ignore them and hope they go away, or will he now set his sights on university reforms with the hope of provoking the students to become violent to justify his repression? I vote the later of the three but only time will tell.

Students in front of the National Assembly

2007-06-07T18:52:00.000-05:00

I am rather speachless after hearing the speech by Douglas Barrios representing the student movement in Venezuela. Here is the speech (sorry for the language impaired):

English translation of the speech, click here

TVes summer program lineup

2007-06-03T14:45:00.000-05:00

Now that the Venezuelan government has been replaced RCTV with a public broadcasting station (Tves) many are wondering what the program line up will include. Below is a slideshow of potential programs under consideration.

Venezuela - a few videos of yesterdays events

2007-05-30T08:39:00.000-05:00

Update 12 midnight Caracas time

Residentes in Venezuela have been having trouble accessing some online media outlets via the recently nationalized telephone and internet hosting company CANTV

> Media reports via online, TV, and radio have been less although protests have continued throughout the country. It is strong belived that the government curbed some of the reporting especially after the Chavez cadena from yesterday.

> In Maracay there was violence

Developing rumor/story 4:30 Caracas time

Currently the Minister of the Public has asked the director of Globovision and anchorman Leopoldo Castillo for questioning

Rumor is Various journalists, reporters, and politicians will be accused of ploting against Hugo Chavez Rumor is that they will be accused of taking money from the US government as was denounced by Eva Golinger and the program La Hojilla (remember yesterday Chavez gave La Hojilla free rein to make any statement they wanted).

Update 3:30pm Caracas time

> Protesting students in Valencia changed their march route in order to avoid any confrontation with pro-Chavez individuals that "were waiting for them"

Update 2:45pm Caracas time

> Student protests continue today throughout Venezuela against the closure of RCTV.

> Former presidential candidate and govenor of Zulia has suggested a national referendum be held to see if RCTV should remain on television.

> United States speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (D) issued a statement:

He [Chavez] should reconsider this ill-advised decision

>Brazilian president is quoted as stating "In democracy, the only judge of the media is the public"

Senior National Assembly member Iris Valera calling for the take over of the East of Caracas

Part of Chavez's 1 hour long national cadena

The controversial Globovision commercial

Demonstrations in Venzuela

Venezuela - second day of protests news round up UPDATED THROUGHOUT THE DAY

2007-05-29T12:21:00.000-05:00

Tuesday May 29

Protests continue today in Venezuela against the governments closure of RCTV.

4 pm Caracas time

> Protests continue thoughout Venezuela, government officials are making rather threatening statements eluding to violence.

> There is a rumor that Globovision will be taken off the air for 72 hours for their coverage of the demonstrations and trying to incite violence.

3 pm Caracas time

> Government media outlets MINCI and VTV are not reporting student demonstrations that are taking place thorughout Venezuela in support of RCTV. Again highlighting the hypocirsy and media blackout that we are to expect in the future. The only demonstrations that the government is covering are those in favor of the governments closure of RCTV calling it a "huge march".

> Chavez during his "Cadena" called the student demonstrations a conspiricy against him and that he would personally command any fight against him like on april 13th. Chavez indicated to people in Catia, 23 Enero, Petare to be on alert against the conspiricy.

> Chavez accused the television station Globovision of fomenting violence. While telling the government run station program "La Hojilla" to say whatever they want without limits, since they have full liberty to say what they want.

Indicó que el mundo lo pudo ver gracias al programa "La Hojilla" que se transmite por el canal de televisión del Estado, VTV. "Mario Silva sigue adelante denunciando lo que tengas que denunciar, con plena libertad", dijo"

2 pm Caracas time

Chavez has finally appeared on television and radio on one of his "cadenas" taking over all radio and television stations (media blackout). He has been talking for about 1 hour now from the tiny coastal village of Los Caracas.

> Student protests are taking place in the states of Zulia, Lara, and Tachira.

1pm Caracas time

>Students at Venezuelas largest university (UCV) are marching to the OAS office in Caracas to hand a document for protection

> Protests are taking place in Nueva Esparta and Anzoaegui in support of RCTV

> Other student protests are taking place in Caracas and here

> Student protests are taking place in Valencia for the second day in support of RCTV

> Student protests are taking place in Maracay for the second day in support of RCTV

> Student protests are taking place for the second day in other major cities around Venezuela in support of RCTV

> Chilean president Bachelet called freedom of expression a golden rule

> Pro-Chavez students at Chavez created Universities are protesting in support of the RCTV closure and in Valencia

> Yesterday Venezuelan National Assembly member Jose Luis Pirela and the pro-govt. university (Universidad Bolivariana) were deported from Colombia for actively participating in Colombian politics. Pirela upon returning to Venezuela called Uribe the number one terrorist of Colombia

Chavez changes channels

2007-05-29T09:35:00.000-05:00

Here is an article from the Economist I think the last paragraph is very telling as to what we should expect from the Revolution.

May 29th 2007 | CARACAS
From Economist.com

Venezuela's president pulls the plug on a critical TV station

IN THE ultra-modern, digital newsroom of Radio Caracas Televisión (RCTV), a message taped to a room-divider reads: “If you’re looking to buy consciences, ours are not for sale”. RCTV’s journalists are unable to broadcast their news programmes in the normal fashion since the channel was taken off the air just before midnight on Sunday May 27th. President Hugo Chávez decreed last December that there would be no more television concessions for what he calls “fascists” and “coup plotters”. His supporters argue that the concession expired on Sunday and was simply not renewed. The channel’s owners and staff, along with many human-rights organisations, see the move as revenge for their critical editorial line.

Channel 2, where RCTV had broadcast for more than half a century, is now home to a new government-run channel. Gone are Venezuelans’ favourite soap operas, the world’s longest-running comedy show, “Radio Rochela”, and a breakfast talk-show called “The Interview” that has earned its outspoken anti-Chávez host, Miguel Angel Rodríguez, a stream of insults and threats from sources supporting the president. Polls suggest that an overwhelming majority of Venezuelans oppose what they consider as interference with their choice of viewing.

On Sunday and Monday many took to the streets, and to the airwaves—or at least, those that are still open to dissenting voices. That means, primarily, Globovisión: the 24-hour news station is the only remaining anti-government channel. Students from Caracas’s main universities, and others across the country, braved tear-gas and plastic bullets from riot police. They were joined by journalists and, in a remarkable show of solidarity, by soap stars and news anchors from RCTV’s rival, Venevisión. Its boss, Gustavo Cisneros, caved in to government pressure several years ago and removed anti-Chávez commentary and news items from his station.

Mr Chávez won re-election last December, after nearly eight years in power, with more than 60% of the vote. Since then, he has taken a sharp turn to the left, in a bid to install in Venezuela what he calls a “21st century socialist” regime. But many of his own supporters oppose the closure of RCTV. The second-largest party in his parliamentary coalition, the social-democratic Podemos, refused to attend a recent session in support of the decision. Party sources say that not one of its legislators agrees with the closure of RCTV. International reaction has scarcely been more encouraging for Mr Chávez.

On Monday the European Union expressed concern that the non-renewal of the concession took place without any open competition for a successor. Germany called on the Venezuelan government to respect the principle of press freedom. Non-governmental organisations such as Human Rights Watch, Reporters Without Borders and the Committee to Protect Journalists have all condemned the move. Carlos Lauría of the CPJ called it “a predetermined and politically motivated effort to silence critical coverage [which] sets a chilling precedent.”

RCTV, along with Venezuela’s other TV channels, are not without blemish. In April 2002, when Mr Chávez was briefly ousted in a coup attempt, they blacked out news of protests that helped to restore him to power. And their role as behind-the-scenes power brokers has often distorted their coverage. But the government’s growing number of media outlets, both broadcast and print, pump out an unremitting diet of pro-Chávez propaganda, belittling and even slandering opposition figures on a daily basis. Moreover, the government holds all the regulatory powers, as well as controlling the Supreme Court, whose rulings seldom challenge its interests.

Has Mr Chávez made a significant miscalculation, which could affect his apparently firm grip on power? Enrique ter Horst, a lawyer and a former UN deputy high commissioner for human rights, says Mr Chávez remains strong but that, “he clearly overestimated his forces in this case”. The circumstances “open a new chapter” in the country’s political crisis.

Mr Chávez seems to have two options: a further crack-down on dissent, or to ease up on the revolutionary accelerator. A legal move on Monday to prosecute Globovisión for allegedly hinting that the president should be assassinated, by Venezuela’s information minister suggests that the government does not plan to climb-down. If so, tension is sure to rise.

The Day after - some problems

2007-05-28T14:58:00.001-05:00

So I have been reading around and apparently students from various Universities in Caracas have taken to the streets to demonstrate peacefully against the RCTV closure. Miguel has infromation on some of the situation including the Minister of Communication calling various media outlets (including CNN) of fomenting the demonstrations.

Miguel's blog

Update 8:00 pm Caracas time

>Seven student were wounded during peacefull protests in Valencia at the University of Carabobo when masked gunmen began firing at the protestors. Parts of Valencia have also taken to the streets protesting

>Students in the State of Aragua took to the streets to protest the closure of RCTV

Update 4:16 Caracas time

>Student protests against the closure of RCTV are repelled with tear gas in Caracas

>Minister of "Popular power [not making this up] for Communications and Information" is opening criticizing CNN for propaganda and trying to incite violence in Venezuela.

>Minister of "Popular power of Education" called the student demonstrations political, and it is an anti government campaign.

>Protesters in front of the daily newspaper El Carabobeño in support of RCTV, were injured when pro-Chavez demonstrators arrived and began throwing rocks and bottles

RCTV - forced closure by the Venezuelan government

2007-05-27T23:04:00.000-05:00

It is now midnight in Venezuela and RCTV has now been closedby the Venezuelan government, to be more specific by Chavez. In addition, the military has now confiscated the transmission and microwaves that Radio Caracas de Television uses to now be used for the new government television stations TVES.

After 53 years of reporting and broadcasting RCTV has now been closed based on politics.

Venezuela - Update 10pm

2007-05-27T21:23:00.000-05:00

So from what I have been seeing on TV the demonstration in front of CONATEL, in Las Mercedes, the government telecommunications authority has been dispursed by force by the metropolitan police warning the demonstrators not to return or more force will be used. In the meantime the government officials call the demonstrations an attempt to overthrow the government and their role is to maintain public order against a small group of coup plotters. This is despite a peaceful demonstrations where no incidents occurred until the police began using tear gas and rubber bullets.

I was told that in Valencia earlier in the day the national guard fired (rubber?) bullets into the demonstrators that was taking place at "Redoma Guataparo" and some people were injured.

At this time things seem to be quiet.

Venezuelan, RCTV, and the OAS

2007-05-27T10:21:00.000-05:00

Venezuelan, RCTV, and the OAS

Some people think that the case against the Venezuelan television station will end with its closure on Sunday night/ Monday morning. On the contrary the legal fight will go on for sometime. Below is an excerpt from some of the issues that will go on for years.

In 2002, a number of RCTV workers filed a complaint against the Venezuelan State with the Inter American Commission on Human Rights "in virtue of continued curtailment of freedom of expression resulting from a number of physical and moral assailment, serious attacks and aggressions perpetrated against reporters, other workers and officers of this news media, including threats by senior government officials to revoke or terminate the broadcast license for RCTV."

Avoiding closure Meanwhile, Marco Tulio Bruni Celli, former president of the Inter American Commission on Human Rights, believes the Court could grant precautionary measures to prevent RCTV from stopping operations.
Bruni Celli reminded that under article 63, Inter American Convention on Human Rights, "In cases of extreme gravity and urgency, and when necessary to avoid irreparable damage to persons, the Court shall adopt such provisional measures as it deems pertinent in matters it has under consideration."

Personally, I don't think the IACHR will not call for the suspension of RCTV closure based on article 63. Such a move would immediately cause Chavez to leave the OAS just as he said he would do about a month ago.

The saddest thing is that the secretary-general of the OAS Jose Miguel Insulza is not will to get the OAS involved in the RCTV issue instead he is willing to leave it to the Venezuelan courts. The same judges that Chavez appointed and courts he packed.

The NY Times published a nice article on the RCTV closure and how the "new private" stations are controlled by pro-Chavez individuals. You see what is going on in Venezuela is the replacement of anti-Chavez industrialists and capitalists with pro-Chavez ones using the force of the state.

Venezuela - FREE RCTV!!!

2007-05-23T10:55:00.000-05:00

On Monday the nations oldest private television station will have it's public airwaves contract revoked without any legal proceedings taking place. Such action is taking place simply because Hugo Chavez wants RCTV closed, this despite ~80% of the population being against the closure.

Below is a short independently produced video demonstrating Chavez's verbal assault on the press during the past 8 years. Such verbal attacks have subsequently translated into physical attacks by Chavez supporters.

To learn more and sign a petition please visit the FREE RCTV campaign a project by Human Rights Foundation

Human Rights Watch press release

Amnesty International statements on human rights and the press in Venezuela

For some of us the closure of RCTV is just one more step to control the media in Venezuela. For years we have dealt with "Cadenas" of forced broadcasts over all television and radio stations, that can happen on multiple times in a week each being hours long. This is all in an effort to control what news is being broadcast and to prevent that which is unsavory to the government, such the Cadena broadcast on April 11, 2002 where the media was reporting the opposition demonstration.

Venezuela: Friend or Foe?

2007-05-22T23:07:00.000-05:00

A recent poll conducted by Opinion Research Corporation shows how American view Iran, North Korea, Syria, and Venezuela. Below is the percentage who view them as an Ally, Friendly, Unfriendly, Enemy or unsure. In the case of Venezuela 50% see it in a positive light, 40% see it negatively, and 10% are unsure.

I find it a bit disturbing that 14% see Venezuela as an enemy, if anything it is unfriendly or less friendly than in the past. Personally, I would characterize the Venezuelan government as friendly/unfriendly, it surly is not a threat or an enemy. It is simply an authoritarian government that ironically needs the United States more than the US needs Venezuela.

Link originally accessed via VenezuelaToday

Science and technology development in Latin America

2007-05-16T00:10:00.000-05:00

In 2006 the National Science Foundation published their science and engineering Indicators for 2006. There is little mention of Latin America, especially Venezuela, although the NSF does conclude that there are several nations that have made tremendous technological advances over the past decade and are positioning themselves for further technological development to become high-tech exporters.

Based on the four indicators below and looking at 15 countries they conclude that Mexico and Argentina are trending upwards in technology development to become new high-technology exporters. Even though Brazil declined in 2003 vs. 1999, seeing in 2005 a higher score vs. 1999, it is still the best positioned of the Latin American countries scored for technology development and eventual export. Venezuela, the only other Latin American country scored, saw a similar decline in 2003 raising in 2005 but still the it had lowest (along with Indonesia) score among the 15 countries studied.

Composite Score

Leading indicators used to determine the potential for 15 countries surveyed to become more important exporters of high-technology products during the next 15 years

National orientation— evidence that a nation is taking action to become technologically competitive, as indicated by explicit or implicit national strategies involving cooperation between the public and private sectors. 
Socioeconomic infrastructure— the social and economic institutions that support and maintain the physical, human, organizational, and economic resources essential to a modern, technology-based industrial nation. Indicators include the existence of dynamic capital markets, upward trends in capital formation, rising levels of foreign investment, and national investments in education. 
Technological infrastructure— the social and economic institutions that contribute directly to a nation's ability to develop, produce, and market new technology. Indicators include the existence of a system for the protection of intellectual property rights, the extent to which R&D activities relate to industrial application, competency in high-technology manufacturing, and the capability to produce qualified scientists and engineers. 
Productive capacity— the physical and human resources devoted to manufacturing products and the efficiency with which those resources are used. Indicators include the current level of high-technology production, the quality and productivity of the labor force including the presence of skilled labor, and the existence of innovative management practices.

Raw scores broken up into the 4 leading indicators

The NSF cites Venezuela specifically for its low score:

"Venezuela received the lowest composite score of the economies examined. It was rated low for all variables, but mostly suffered because it was considered the riskiest or least attractive site for foreign investment. Indonesia and Argentina also received consistently low scores on each variable, but mostly were affected by the very low expert ratings of their national strategies for high-technology development."

publications
The graph below shows the number of science and engineering publication each country has published in the according years. Supporting the above information we can see that Brazil is the leading Latin American country for S&E publications growing at an exponential rate. In addition, Mexico and Argentina are also steadily increasing their number of publications although in a linear fashion. The remaining Latin American countries (ie. Venezuela) have remained fairly steady since 1988, although Chile since ~2000 has been increasing it publication rate.

Education
The graph below is one that I find rather disturbing, showing the number of first university degrees by region comparing 1997 and 2002. North America, Asia, Europe and Africa all show an increase in first university degrees in engineering, natural sciences and social/behavioral sciences. Central and South America is the only region that had an overall decline in first university degrees primarily due to a sharp decrease in engineering degrees awarded.

In summary, Brazil seems to be the best positioned to lead Latin America in science and engineering, and technology development. Venezuela on the other hand lags far behind with little hope of catching up as stated by the NSF report: [Venezuela] suffered because it was considered the riskiest or least attractive site for foreign investment. Since foreign investment in Venezuela has steadily declined there is little hope of significant investment in science in technology or its transfer to economically profitable products for the domestic or international market.

The Venezuelan Ministry of Science and Technology have now mandated that companies above a specific income level will have to pay a certain percentage "tax" that will be used for science and technology development. While at first this may seem a good idea there are a couple of potential problems with it. 1) The "taxed" money could be used by the company to invest in its own technology development improving its own efficiency and productivity instead it is going to the government. 2) Government officials will be responsible for allocating money for technology and science development, this increases the probability of corruption, misallocation of funds, and funding non-economic profitable technology. However, if administered correctly this "tax" may help S&E technology development, but so far the Venezuelan government has shown little capability of running things efficiently or effectively.

Albuquerque, NM

2007-05-07T15:41:00.000-05:00

I am currently in Albuquerque NM, home of the University of New Mexico and the fighting Lobos , and home to the ardent pro-Chavez blogger Justin Delacour and my idol!

I am literally within feet of his office. Should I say hi? invite him for coffee? perhaps dinner? What would I say?

HAHA, just kidding I have very little to say to him plus any debate, much less an intellectual one, would be futile.